Polymarketalito june 30th 2027
alito june 30th 2027
Domah参与话题 5消息总数 103
该用户的聊天记录定位。
聊天记录
共 103 条，显示第 1-50 条
Kalshialito june 30th 2027
alito june 30th 2027
I received a DM from him to vote. How is that "rigging* 😂
I received a DM from him to vote. How is that "rigging* 😂
youre on the good path now, then next one is that there's probably infinite other universes with different physics than ours
youre on the good path now, then next one is that there's probably infinite other universes with different physics than ours
almost every element in the universe, including oxygen and carbon, was created from stars. much of it when stars die in supernovas. humans are sentient stars observing other stars. we are the universe becoming aware of its existence.
almost every element in the universe, including oxygen and carbon, was created from stars. much of it when stars die in supernovas. humans are sentient stars observing other stars. we are the universe becoming aware of its existence.
What you want to know real shit abt
What you want to know real shit abt
The first screenshot is exactly what I see as I type it in. But after I press enter I see the Rhode island results
The first screenshot is exactly what I see as I type it in. But after I press enter I see the Rhode island results
The love island markets do not even show up AT ALL 😂
The love island markets do not even show up AT ALL 😂
This is like levels of search dysfunction I've never seen before on the internet
This is like levels of search dysfunction I've never seen before on the internet
Searching the string love island gives this search result.
Searching the string love island gives this search result.
but isnt this also incorrect? isnt my "to win" amount $2,015,000?
but isnt this also incorrect? isnt my "to win" amount $2,015,000?
that may be it, let me play around with it before i disagree
that may be it, let me play around with it before i disagree
is there an explanation for how fees work on polymarket. if i am paying a $2k fee, shouldn't the cost of the shares be $2k higher, and i could potentially win $2.000m instead of $2.002m? why is the "to win" part so much lower? polymarket takes their fee in shares? do i need to do a math calculation every single time in order to figure out what the fee is on any given trade?
is there an explanation for how fees work on polymarket. if i am paying a $2k fee, shouldn't the cost of the shares be $2k higher, and i could potentially win $2.000m instead of $2.002m? why is the "to win" part so much lower? polymarket takes their fee in shares? do i need to do a math calculation every single time in order to figure out what the fee is on any given trade?
have no idea what the courts ruled, but i am stating a fact which you are free to ignore -- the election has never been certified. because it can't be. because they invented a fictional result. a fictional result which was investigated heavily, and published widely by credible reporting. and this is how and why the market expired in line with reality. its also why machado won a nobel prize.
have no idea what the courts ruled, but i am stating a fact which you are free to ignore -- the election has never been certified. because it can't be. because they invented a fictional result. a fictional result which was investigated heavily, and published widely by credible reporting. and this is how and why the market expired in line with reality. its also why machado won a nobel prize.
and as ive explained to you 10 times already (maybe 20 by this point), this election took place years ago. the official, certified result has never been released lol. in your world, this market would still be open waiting for the certified result.
and as ive explained to you 10 times already (maybe 20 by this point), this election took place years ago. the official, certified result has never been released lol. in your world, this market would still be open waiting for the certified result.
did your mouse button stop working, why didn't you highlight the rest of the sentence that resolved the market?
did your mouse button stop working, why didn't you highlight the rest of the sentence that resolved the market?
a top 5 "uma can actually be useful for determining the truth" moment, and your broke, bitter ass is still whinging about it years later
a top 5 "uma can actually be useful for determining the truth" moment, and your broke, bitter ass is still whinging about it years later
need starmer markets, with the caveat that the person who puts them up should be familiar with the months of the year, and how time progresses linearly
need starmer markets, with the caveat that the person who puts them up should be familiar with the months of the year, and how time progresses linearly
gotcha, sorry man
gotcha, sorry man
above 10 is insane lol
above 10 is insane lol
imho the market requires a public iranian agreement to end all uranium enrichment. but the official MoU only says Iran will maintain the nuclear “status quo” while enrichment itself is left for later negotiation. resolving Yes requires CONVERTING the written & ambiguous status-quo/freeze clause into an implied zero-enrichment pledge. that is too indirect. this is an important market bc this is like the #1 reason that ppl say that we need to attack iran. yes should require explicit statements, not implicit and squishy "but ackshually" explanations.
imho the market requires a public iranian agreement to end all uranium enrichment. but the official MoU only says Iran will maintain the nuclear “status quo” while enrichment itself is left for later negotiation. resolving Yes requires CONVERTING the written & ambiguous status-quo/freeze clause into an implied zero-enrichment pledge. that is too indirect. this is an important market bc this is like the #1 reason that ppl say that we need to attack iran. yes should require explicit statements, not implicit and squishy "but ackshually" explanations.
I mean we have a fundamental disagreement here, because I think words like "Maintain" and "Freezing" and "Status Quo" supports No. I do understand the argument that this word is actually some sort of implicit code word for 0 enrichment, but that is not explicit at all. And it is not explicit on purpose. Whether that purpose is political or logistical or bc they are secretly enriching or whatever is really beside the point. Iran hasn't agreed to ending enrichment yet.
I mean we have a fundamental disagreement here, because I think words like "Maintain" and "Freezing" and "Status Quo" supports No. I do understand the argument that this word is actually some sort of implicit code word for 0 enrichment, but that is not explicit at all. And it is not explicit on purpose. Whether that purpose is political or logistical or bc they are secretly enriching or whatever is really beside the point. Iran hasn't agreed to ending enrichment yet.
Nabavian is against the agrement, and purposefully exaggerated it to try to score political points. His quote is taken out of context, they know it is out of context, and yet this is still apparently their #1 piece of evidence.
Nabavian is against the agrement, and purposefully exaggerated it to try to score political points. His quote is taken out of context, they know it is out of context, and yet this is still apparently their #1 piece of evidence.
well iran knows. and they didn't agree to end it lol.
well iran knows. and they didn't agree to end it lol.
typo?
typo?
did i see november 2025 on that article?
did i see november 2025 on that article?
https://tenor.com/view/no-no-way-whoa-gif-19622327
https://tenor.com/view/no-no-way-whoa-gif-19622327
nobody has grappled with this lol
nobody has grappled with this lol
if iran was agreeing to END their enrichment for any period of time, they would put it in the MOU
if iran was agreeing to END their enrichment for any period of time, they would put it in the MOU
well they have agreed to "maintain" their program as-is, and the market is about whether they agree to end enrichment. i think you are overthinking this quite a lot.
well they have agreed to "maintain" their program as-is, and the market is about whether they agree to end enrichment. i think you are overthinking this quite a lot.
if you showed this to a neutral judge who was trying to decide this market, they would think you are on the N side.
if you showed this to a neutral judge who was trying to decide this market, they would think you are on the N side.
if they proposed june 30th, poly/uma would see the price at 30-70c wherever it was, and be like "oh this is uncertain" (bc it is), but if you propose the dec 31st one that is trading at 80c+ or whatever it was, then you can say "oh ppl think this should be yes already"
if they proposed june 30th, poly/uma would see the price at 30-70c wherever it was, and be like "oh this is uncertain" (bc it is), but if you propose the dec 31st one that is trading at 80c+ or whatever it was, then you can say "oh ppl think this should be yes already"
not really, they wanted to get the one that is closest to 100, so that it looks like yes is the right side to VOTE on.
not really, they wanted to get the one that is closest to 100, so that it looks like yes is the right side to VOTE on.
however this turns out, it is scummy and cowardly to propose december and not touch june 30th. be a man and put your $750 behind your opinions. don't be a sneaky weirdo. it is embarrassing, and shouldn't even be allowed to happen on a functional oracle.
however this turns out, it is scummy and cowardly to propose december and not touch june 30th. be a man and put your $750 behind your opinions. don't be a sneaky weirdo. it is embarrassing, and shouldn't even be allowed to happen on a functional oracle.
wow turns out the truth is iran is unlikely to actually agree to this!
wow turns out the truth is iran is unlikely to actually agree to this!
25c for yes? seems fine, i mean the underlying price is like 5c, so that is exactly my odds 80% lol
25c for yes? seems fine, i mean the underlying price is like 5c, so that is exactly my odds 80% lol
i honestly do not even know what the price is right now, USA just scored
i honestly do not even know what the price is right now, USA just scored
if i was a polymarket employee and they told me i h ad to research this for the next 2 hrs instead of watching the US world cup game, id quit on the spot
if i was a polymarket employee and they told me i h ad to research this for the next 2 hrs instead of watching the US world cup game, id quit on the spot
this is the type of market where unless its easy and straight forward to say yes, they're very likely to go no. the topic is too big, the evidence is too vague. just my two cents. i think the yes case is too speculative personally.
this is the type of market where unless its easy and straight forward to say yes, they're very likely to go no. the topic is too big, the evidence is too vague. just my two cents. i think the yes case is too speculative personally.
oh if poly is going to clarify id say 80% chance it goes "not enough yet"
oh if poly is going to clarify id say 80% chance it goes "not enough yet"
what?
what?
like if there is 200 shares being bid, and i am bidding 50 shares, how many shares are in front of me right now. like is it 1 share in front of me or 150 shares in front of me.
like if there is 200 shares being bid, and i am bidding 50 shares, how many shares are in front of me right now. like is it 1 share in front of me or 150 shares in front of me.
am i able to see where in the queue i am with an order in the orderbook?
am i able to see where in the queue i am with an order in the orderbook?
This chat is NOT safe for any children to be participating in, Avi is on the prowl
This chat is NOT safe for any children to be participating in, Avi is on the prowl
(kidding)
(kidding)
I already sold and now I am skeptical again
I already sold and now I am skeptical again
obvious yes, close and pay
obvious yes, close and pay
Golden Boot is missing a bunch of realistic options
Golden Boot is missing a bunch of realistic options
Please stop alphabetical expirations as tiebreakers. It makes NO sense, is punitive, and is lazy. If you can't crack the technology to expire it as n/2 or n/3, then create criteria to break the tie based on merit.
Please stop alphabetical expirations as tiebreakers. It makes NO sense, is punitive, and is lazy. If you can't crack the technology to expire it as n/2 or n/3, then create criteria to break the tie based on merit.
I'd say 500-1 odds. So not zero but very far fetched lol.
I'd say 500-1 odds. So not zero but very far fetched lol.
第 1 / 3 页
下一页 →