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Swaggelwander参与话题 14消息总数 414

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Swaggelwander 2026-06-29 19:15:57 Polymarket

Have polymarket make a market for it and you will end up with it going No because technically claude isn't a sentient being and thus can not be responsible for any commit, learning nothing about your question

Have polymarket make a market for it and you will end up with it going No because technically claude isn't a sentient being and thus can not be responsible for any commit, learning nothing about your question

Swaggelwander 2026-06-26 00:01:17 Polymarket

regular jitter is whatever, but when the p90 is 20x the p50 its not just jitter 💀

regular jitter is whatever, but when the p90 is 20x the p50 its not just jitter 💀

Swaggelwander 2026-06-25 21:14:42 Polymarket 6月25日 Polymarket 交易服务大面积异常

not great, not terrible. p99 of 1s which is better than yesterday but my p50 is like 20ms slower than usual

not great, not terrible. p99 of 1s which is better than yesterday but my p50 is like 20ms slower than usual

Swaggelwander 2026-06-25 15:47:31 Polymarket

Yeah he's a top trader on polymarket, it's how he made his first billion

Yeah he's a top trader on polymarket, it's how he made his first billion

Swaggelwander 2026-06-25 05:12:30 Polymarket

Is it better now or still cooked?

Is it better now or still cooked?

Swaggelwander 2026-06-25 01:41:56 Polymarket

nuh uh. checkmate atheist

nuh uh. checkmate atheist

Swaggelwander 2026-06-25 01:40:14 Polymarket

maybe u hacked the clob to slow ur opponents down

maybe u hacked the clob to slow ur opponents down

Swaggelwander 2026-06-25 01:40:06 Polymarket

I was on track to doing that as well but then the CLOB shat itself

I was on track to doing that as well but then the CLOB shat itself

Swaggelwander 2026-06-25 01:38:10 Polymarket

When CLOB un-unalives itself pls ping me ty

When CLOB un-unalives itself pls ping me ty

Swaggelwander 2026-06-25 01:37:23 Polymarket

fr

fr

Swaggelwander 2026-06-25 01:33:29 Polymarket

why are you running your bot in the red for months? 😭

why are you running your bot in the red for months? 😭

Swaggelwander 2026-06-25 01:10:56 Polymarket

its not 67, you can expect closer to 25 in my experience

its not 67, you can expect closer to 25 in my experience

Swaggelwander 2026-06-24 19:05:40 Polymarket

Oman is to Iran what Israel is to US 😂

Oman is to Iran what Israel is to US 😂

Swaggelwander 2026-06-24 18:31:34 Polymarket

fuck is that a copy pasta?

fuck is that a copy pasta?

Swaggelwander 2026-06-24 18:31:19 Polymarket

On insult?

On insult?

Swaggelwander 2026-06-24 18:30:17 Polymarket

what the fuck is everyone in here afucking unc wtf

what the fuck is everyone in here afucking unc wtf

Swaggelwander 2026-06-24 01:41:36 Polymarket KYC审核严重延迟超一个月无反馈

<@961050834743992330> I did my colo KYC 1.5 weeks ago, can you have a look?

<@961050834743992330> I did my colo KYC 1.5 weeks ago, can you have a look?

Swaggelwander 2026-06-23 18:36:27 Polymarket

I came to the same conclusion, I expect about ~21-23 but might be off by 2-3

I came to the same conclusion, I expect about ~21-23 but might be off by 2-3

Swaggelwander 2026-06-23 16:22:38 Polymarket

Yes argument is that Rex said he has alpha

Yes argument is that Rex said he has alpha

Swaggelwander 2026-06-21 19:53:42 Polymarket

Trump has to announce it, not Iran?

Trump has to announce it, not Iran?

Swaggelwander 2026-06-21 15:03:24 Polymarket

gm any scams?

gm any scams?

Swaggelwander 2026-06-20 19:12:22 Polymarket

The issue is that we dont know what the status quo is. It's not P1, it's P4. But since it is P4 it's very unlikely Iran will go out and say "yep we stopped enriching" beacuse why would they? If they agree that the strait has no fees then thats agreed and public.

The issue is that we dont know what the status quo is. It's not P1, it's P4. But since it is P4 it's very unlikely Iran will go out and say "yep we stopped enriching" beacuse why would they? If they agree that the strait has no fees then thats agreed and public.

Swaggelwander 2026-06-20 17:19:18 Polymarket

gm any ascams?

gm any ascams?

Swaggelwander 2026-06-20 17:02:02 Polymarket

cheers 🙂

cheers 🙂

Swaggelwander 2026-06-20 17:00:29 Polymarket Co-Location 申请审核缓慢,长时间无回应

<@1356604771208790198> i submitted my colo kyc more than a week ago and havn't heard a squeak

<@1356604771208790198> i submitted my colo kyc more than a week ago and havn't heard a squeak

Swaggelwander 2026-06-20 14:39:02 Polymarket

Yeah but what is not changing? If they sign the deal during the night when the factories are down its not the status quo of 0 right, there is ambiguity

Yeah but what is not changing? If they sign the deal during the night when the factories are down its not the status quo of 0 right, there is ambiguity

Swaggelwander 2026-06-20 14:37:57 Polymarket

Status quo can be more than what someone is doing exactly this moment.

Status quo can be more than what someone is doing exactly this moment.

Swaggelwander 2026-06-20 14:36:58 Polymarket

Its too ambiguous to say for certain they are not allowed to enrich under this deal, p4 lol

Its too ambiguous to say for certain they are not allowed to enrich under this deal, p4 lol

Swaggelwander 2026-06-20 14:36:29 Polymarket

The status quo is 40 hour work weeks yet I only work 10 hours but my status quo is still 40h

The status quo is 40 hour work weeks yet I only work 10 hours but my status quo is still 40h

Swaggelwander 2026-06-20 14:35:54 Polymarket

Reality!=status quo

Reality!=status quo

Swaggelwander 2026-06-20 06:07:31 Polymarket

Good clarif now im gonna go through my dms and tell 3 people to fuck off because they are the retarded ones

Good clarif now im gonna go through my dms and tell 3 people to fuck off because they are the retarded ones

Swaggelwander 2026-06-19 18:45:15 Polymarket

reality is not an insult

reality is not an insult

Swaggelwander 2026-06-19 18:42:10 Polymarket

great debt argument

great debt argument

Swaggelwander 2026-06-19 18:21:12 Polymarket

its literally this lol

its literally this lol

Swaggelwander 2026-06-19 18:20:20 Polymarket

There is no direct mention of any previous agreement or concrete legal clause here.

There is no direct mention of any previous agreement or concrete legal clause here.

Swaggelwander 2026-06-19 18:19:43 Polymarket

"quite clearly" aka you made it up in your head

"quite clearly" aka you made it up in your head

Swaggelwander 2026-06-19 17:15:53 Polymarket

nice writeup i agree

nice writeup i agree

Swaggelwander 2026-06-19 15:52:21 Polymarket

And since Carniege is reputable media, it will take a LOT for there to be consensus for Yes, since one major media is saying No

And since Carniege is reputable media, it will take a LOT for there to be consensus for Yes, since one major media is saying No

Swaggelwander 2026-06-19 15:50:58 Polymarket

right?

right?

Swaggelwander 2026-06-19 15:50:52 Polymarket

yeah, so the only way it can go yes now is if Iran clarifies, but why would they clarify? They for sure must like this doubt as it gives them leeway in actions and negotiation

yeah, so the only way it can go yes now is if Iran clarifies, but why would they clarify? They for sure must like this doubt as it gives them leeway in actions and negotiation

Swaggelwander 2026-06-19 15:49:56 Polymarket

I think if its this unclear it can never be yes really

I think if its this unclear it can never be yes really

Swaggelwander 2026-06-19 14:58:30 Polymarket

apperently because he is a hardliner he doesn't count

apperently because he is a hardliner he doesn't count

Swaggelwander 2026-06-19 14:57:56 Polymarket

bro if you're doing 0 and say you will keep doing what you're doing you are saying that you are not doing it

bro if you're doing 0 and say you will keep doing what you're doing you are saying that you are not doing it

Swaggelwander 2026-06-19 14:56:29 Polymarket

insider.png

insider.png

Swaggelwander 2026-06-19 14:46:44 Polymarket

Clearly everything hinges on this. We need Iran to say how much they are enriching (which they will not) or for Iran to say the it will not enrich during the talks (which they will not). Or the IAEA to confirm that they are not enriching (which they will not). Unless they actually do one of these things, it has to be P4 right? What am I missing

Clearly everything hinges on this. We need Iran to say how much they are enriching (which they will not) or for Iran to say the it will not enrich during the talks (which they will not). Or the IAEA to confirm that they are not enriching (which they will not). Unless they actually do one of these things, it has to be P4 right? What am I missing

Swaggelwander 2026-06-19 14:25:02 Polymarket

no way etherexplore0016 is a bot

no way etherexplore0016 is a bot

Swaggelwander 2026-06-19 14:09:07 Polymarket

The view is that the final talks will lead to that?

The view is that the final talks will lead to that?

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