聊天记录
共 12 条，显示第 1-12 条
Any Sonnet model newly added to the leaderboard with a version number higher than 4.6 may qualify (e.g., claude-sonnet-4-7, claude-sonnet-4-8, claude-sonnet-5-0, claude-sonnet-6). Claude models labeled as Opus, Fable, Mythos, Haiku or another non-Sonnet variants will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Any Sonnet model newly added to the leaderboard with a version number higher than 4.6 may qualify (e.g., claude-sonnet-4-7, claude-sonnet-4-8, claude-sonnet-5-0, claude-sonnet-6). Claude models labeled as Opus, Fable, Mythos, Haiku or another non-Sonnet variants will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Title: "Next Claude Sonnet: Arena Debut"
Outcomes:
1460+
1470+
1480+
1490+
1500+
1510+
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Claude Sonnet Model by Anthropic added to the Arena.ai Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
Title: "Next Claude Sonnet: Arena Debut"
Outcomes:
1460+
1470+
1480+
1490+
1500+
1510+
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Claude Sonnet Model by Anthropic added to the Arena.ai Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
Claude Sonnet 5.0 might release today (65% as of now per market).
I suggest an "arena debut" market for it, just like we have for gemini & gpt releases.
Take "https://polymarket.com/event/next-anthropic-model-arena-debut" as blueprint, call for next claude sonnet and make brackets in 10 elo steps from "1460+" to "1510+".
Claude Sonnet 5.0 might release today (65% as of now per market).
I suggest an "arena debut" market for it, just like we have for gemini & gpt releases.
Take "https://polymarket.com/event/next-anthropic-model-arena-debut" as blueprint, call for next claude sonnet and make brackets in 10 elo steps from "1460+" to "1510+".
Weekly Earthquake Markets (>=5.5 and >=6.5) are still missing - can you open them or is there a delay? 😀
Weekly Earthquake Markets (>=5.5 and >=6.5) are still missing - can you open them or is there a delay? 😀
https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-5pt5-or-above-earthquakes-june-15-june-21-20260612154610867
Can we have two higher brackets from next week onwards? It ended >=9 multiple weeks in a row now, brackets from <=5 to >=11 would be statistically optimal.
https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-5pt5-or-above-earthquakes-june-15-june-21-20260612154610867
Can we have two higher brackets from next week onwards? It ended >=9 multiple weeks in a row now, brackets from <=5 to >=11 would be statistically optimal.
https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-5pt5-or-above-earthquakes-may-25-may-31
Can we please have the next week market here?
https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-5pt5-or-above-earthquakes-may-25-may-31
Can we please have the next week market here?
https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-5pt5-or-above-earthquakes-may-25-may-31
Can we please have the next week market here?
https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-5pt5-or-above-earthquakes-may-25-may-31
Can we please have the next week market here?
https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-5pt5-or-above-earthquakes-may-25-may-31
Can we please have the next week market here?
https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-5pt5-or-above-earthquakes-may-25-may-31
Can we please have the next week market here?
https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-5pt5-or-above-earthquakes-may-25-may-31
Can we please have the next week market here?
https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-5pt5-or-above-earthquakes-may-25-may-31
Can we please have the next week market here?
https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-5pt5-or-above-earthquakes-may-25-may-31
Can we please have the next week market here?
https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-5pt5-or-above-earthquakes-may-25-may-31
Can we please have the next week market here?
https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-5pt5-or-above-earthquakes-may-25-may-31
Can we please have the next week market here?
https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-5pt5-or-above-earthquakes-may-25-may-31
Can we please have the next week market here?
https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-5pt5-or-above-earthquakes-may-25-may-31
Can we please have the next week market here?
https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-5pt5-or-above-earthquakes-may-25-may-31
Can we please have the next week market here?
Polymarket