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I think it's extremely hard to justify the positive EV of a disputed geopolitics market at 99.3c for anyone outside of actual UMA voting whales
I think it's extremely hard to justify the positive EV of a disputed geopolitics market at 99.3c for anyone outside of actual UMA voting whales
you I guess, this comment makes no sense. anyone buying 99.3c has a maximum upside of under 1%...
you I guess, this comment makes no sense. anyone buying 99.3c has a maximum upside of under 1%...
that' the joke.jpg
that' the joke.jpg
if you'd looked at holders previously, you'd know those positions were not acquired at 99.3c. The price purchased is what matters
if you'd looked at holders previously, you'd know those positions were not acquired at 99.3c. The price purchased is what matters
once again demonstrating you can talk shit but don't understand the very basics of betting, why would anyone bet against you in a situation where you have complete information and the other does not?
once again demonstrating you can talk shit but don't understand the very basics of betting, why would anyone bet against you in a situation where you have complete information and the other does not?
can you even define EV without google?
can you even define EV without google?
clearly you don't understand EV
clearly you don't understand EV
I'm betting you have $200 in your account if you're betting on 99.3% markets in dispute
I'm betting you have $200 in your account if you're betting on 99.3% markets in dispute
If you don't think there's at least a 0.6% chance of the market actually resolving NO, you're crazy. It's not possible to be that certain about another party's actions under any circumstances.
If you don't think there's at least a 0.6% chance of the market actually resolving NO, you're crazy. It's not possible to be that certain about another party's actions under any circumstances.
We don't know for sure, but the point is we did not get "CLEAR PUBLIC confirmation from BOTH governments" that it was before June 15th, therefore NO on that market.
We don't know for sure, but the point is we did not get "CLEAR PUBLIC confirmation from BOTH governments" that it was before June 15th, therefore NO on that market.
I've read every US public statement that has been released, nowhere do they say it is a permanent peace deal, and all credible reporting says ceasefire
I've read every US public statement that has been released, nowhere do they say it is a permanent peace deal, and all credible reporting says ceasefire
There is not a single existing US govt source saying permanent, if there was, itw ould already have been cited.
There is not a single existing US govt source saying permanent, if there was, itw ould already have been cited.
Cite it then. You can't because it doesn't exist.
Cite it then. You can't because it doesn't exist.
And at the time of dispute, there was no official US statement that the deal was permanent
And at the time of dispute, there was no official US statement that the deal was permanent
That also doesn't matter, that's the whole reason there is a 3 day dispute window for voting. All the reporting just quoted a non signatory, Pakistan
That also doesn't matter, that's the whole reason there is a 3 day dispute window for voting. All the reporting just quoted a non signatory, Pakistan
That's not the point, every credible outlet is reporting it as a ceasefire, an the US govt never confirmed it's permanent. Trump already threatened more military action in multiple outlets: it doesn't matter Trump never said it was permanent anyway "6/15 direct quotes from consensus reporting: NPR: "The text of the deal was not immediately released but has been widely described by U.S. and Iranian officials and in media reports. The agreement extends the current U.S.-Iran ceasefire for 60 days." BBC: "The deal will extend a ceasefire for another 60 days" CBS: "tentative agreement extends the ceasefire" Atlantic Council "The US and Iran just announced an interim peace deal." NBC: "Trump and Iran reach tentative deal" CNBC: "The agreement would extend the ceasefire for 60 days" PBS: "The United States and Iran reached an initial agreement Monday that would extend their shaky ceasefire" ABC: "The U.S. and Iran reached a tentative peace deal to extend a ceasefire" Australian Broadcasting Corp: "This memorandum amounts to a real ceasefire so that in the subsequent 60 days the details can be negotiated." FOX: "Vice President JD Vance said Monday that President Donald Trump would not hesitate to resume military strikes against Iran" AP — "An initial agreement between the United States and Iran to extend their shaky ceasefire" WSJ - "Gold Edges Higher, Extending Gains After U.S.-Iran Ceasefire"" NYT: "He (Trump) also warned Iran, in an interview with The New York Times, that the US could restart military operations" PBS: "Trump is hailing the Iran deal as promising, but not a guarantee. "Hopefully we get along," he says. "If we don't, we go back to where we started."""
That's not the point, every credible outlet is reporting it as a ceasefire, an the US govt never confirmed it's permanent. Trump already threatened more military action in multiple outlets: it doesn't matter Trump never said it was permanent anyway "6/15 direct quotes from consensus reporting: NPR: "The text of the deal was not immediately released but has been widely described by U.S. and Iranian officials and in media reports. The agreement extends the current U.S.-Iran ceasefire for 60 days." BBC: "The deal will extend a ceasefire for another 60 days" CBS: "tentative agreement extends the ceasefire" Atlantic Council "The US and Iran just announced an interim peace deal." NBC: "Trump and Iran reach tentative deal" CNBC: "The agreement would extend the ceasefire for 60 days" PBS: "The United States and Iran reached an initial agreement Monday that would extend their shaky ceasefire" ABC: "The U.S. and Iran reached a tentative peace deal to extend a ceasefire" Australian Broadcasting Corp: "This memorandum amounts to a real ceasefire so that in the subsequent 60 days the details can be negotiated." FOX: "Vice President JD Vance said Monday that President Donald Trump would not hesitate to resume military strikes against Iran" AP — "An initial agreement between the United States and Iran to extend their shaky ceasefire" WSJ - "Gold Edges Higher, Extending Gains After U.S.-Iran Ceasefire"" NYT: "He (Trump) also warned Iran, in an interview with The New York Times, that the US could restart military operations" PBS: "Trump is hailing the Iran deal as promising, but not a guarantee. "Hopefully we get along," he says. "If we don't, we go back to where we started."""
it actualkly says the word CEASEFIRE and gives a time limit on the page (they may have edited it), these are explicitly exclusionary wordings for YES. It's NO.
it actualkly says the word CEASEFIRE and gives a time limit on the page (they may have edited it), these are explicitly exclusionary wordings for YES. It's NO.
It sure doesn't sound permanent: "6/15 direct quotes from consensus reporting: NPR: "The text of the deal was not immediately released but has been widely described by U.S. and Iranian officials and in media reports. The agreement extends the current U.S.-Iran ceasefire for 60 days." BBC: "The deal will extend a ceasefire for another 60 days" CBS: "tentative agreement extends the ceasefire" Atlantic Council "The US and Iran just announced an interim peace deal." NBC: "Trump and Iran reach tentative deal" CNBC: "The agreement would extend the ceasefire for 60 days" PBS: "The United States and Iran reached an initial agreement Monday that would extend their shaky ceasefire" ABC: "The U.S. and Iran reached a tentative peace deal to extend a ceasefire" Australian Broadcasting Corp: "This memorandum amounts to a real ceasefire so that in the subsequent 60 days the details can be negotiated." FOX: "Vice President JD Vance said Monday that President Donald Trump would not hesitate to resume military strikes against Iran" AP — "An initial agreement between the United States and Iran to extend their shaky ceasefire" WSJ - "Gold Edges Higher, Extending Gains After U.S.-Iran Ceasefire"" NYT: "He (Trump) also warned Iran, in an interview with The New York Times, that the US could restart military operations" PBS: "Trump is hailing the Iran deal as promising, but not a guarantee. "Hopefully we get along," he says. "If we don't, we go back to where we started."""
It sure doesn't sound permanent: "6/15 direct quotes from consensus reporting: NPR: "The text of the deal was not immediately released but has been widely described by U.S. and Iranian officials and in media reports. The agreement extends the current U.S.-Iran ceasefire for 60 days." BBC: "The deal will extend a ceasefire for another 60 days" CBS: "tentative agreement extends the ceasefire" Atlantic Council "The US and Iran just announced an interim peace deal." NBC: "Trump and Iran reach tentative deal" CNBC: "The agreement would extend the ceasefire for 60 days" PBS: "The United States and Iran reached an initial agreement Monday that would extend their shaky ceasefire" ABC: "The U.S. and Iran reached a tentative peace deal to extend a ceasefire" Australian Broadcasting Corp: "This memorandum amounts to a real ceasefire so that in the subsequent 60 days the details can be negotiated." FOX: "Vice President JD Vance said Monday that President Donald Trump would not hesitate to resume military strikes against Iran" AP — "An initial agreement between the United States and Iran to extend their shaky ceasefire" WSJ - "Gold Edges Higher, Extending Gains After U.S.-Iran Ceasefire"" NYT: "He (Trump) also warned Iran, in an interview with The New York Times, that the US could restart military operations" PBS: "Trump is hailing the Iran deal as promising, but not a guarantee. "Hopefully we get along," he says. "If we don't, we go back to where we started."""
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