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skywurz参与话题 2消息总数 105

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skywurz 2026-07-04 13:07:45 Kalshi

quiet in here since everyone moved to mACq7wex5

quiet in here since everyone moved to mACq7wex5

skywurz 2026-07-02 09:52:34 Kalshi

please

please

skywurz 2026-07-02 09:52:31 Kalshi

its probably going to resolve up but idk dont take advice from me

its probably going to resolve up but idk dont take advice from me

skywurz 2026-07-02 09:51:28 Kalshi

oh im 5 min late

oh im 5 min late

skywurz 2026-07-02 09:51:06 Kalshi

https://klipy.com/gifs/arrow-crypto

https://klipy.com/gifs/arrow-crypto

skywurz 2026-07-02 09:50:41 Kalshi

its down

its down

skywurz 2026-07-02 09:50:26 Kalshi

no

no

skywurz 2026-07-02 09:43:30 Kalshi

Schrödingers prediction market 😛

Schrödingers prediction market 😛

skywurz 2026-07-02 09:42:47 Kalshi

have you heard of the principle of quantum superposition 😉

have you heard of the principle of quantum superposition 😉

skywurz 2026-07-02 09:41:00 Kalshi

i have multiple screenshots like this from PM

i have multiple screenshots like this from PM

skywurz 2026-07-02 09:38:53 Kalshi

go play on polymarket and then ask the question again

go play on polymarket and then ask the question again

skywurz 2026-07-02 09:17:09 Kalshi

i feel like perps need higher liquid than im willing to throw in at a given time

i feel like perps need higher liquid than im willing to throw in at a given time

i ended up getting like 2k from a programming accident that happened to scoop up multiple reversals . i bled 600 of that trying to chase that dragon and have use the rest to pay mayself back for startup fees and the left over has just kept this as a really really strange hobby..

i ended up getting like 2k from a programming accident that happened to scoop up multiple reversals . i bled 600 of that trying to chase that dragon and have use the rest to pay mayself back for startup fees and the left over has just kept this as a really really strange hobby..

skywurz 2026-07-02 08:36:25 Kalshi

https://klipy.com/gifs/coin-flip-26

https://klipy.com/gifs/coin-flip-26

skywurz 2026-07-02 08:30:40 Kalshi

what i mean is i would bet red for all of the midterms errr i mean no wait /s

what i mean is i would bet red for all of the midterms errr i mean no wait /s

skywurz 2026-07-02 08:29:32 Kalshi

but how do you ~~rig~~ predict elections?

but how do you ~~rig~~ predict elections?

skywurz 2026-07-02 08:19:24 Kalshi

the trap i always fall into is i tweak paper all week and by the time im like ok lets go.. its the weekend

the trap i always fall into is i tweak paper all week and by the time im like ok lets go.. its the weekend

skywurz 2026-07-02 08:15:10 Kalshi

fable is finally back so thats useful

fable is finally back so thats useful

skywurz 2026-07-02 07:05:32 Kalshi

idk i like your avatar and you are not new to discord so if you wanna chat more you can friend and dm me

idk i like your avatar and you are not new to discord so if you wanna chat more you can friend and dm me

also last night to now has all been up markove has an up bias so i have found it to work ok during a steady up chug . but then weekend chop market changes sudden collapse all sucks

also last night to now has all been up markove has an up bias so i have found it to work ok during a steady up chug . but then weekend chop market changes sudden collapse all sucks

skywurz 2026-07-02 06:51:43 Kalshi

you will probably find your stop loss has more slippage IRL

you will probably find your stop loss has more slippage IRL

so this is the part people miss . if you are entering in at that 70-80% range .70-.80 you have to be correct 85%+ of the time to make like 2% and the omega is not going to be great. 15m is a 100% different beast than hourly and if you use the same algo for both your gonna have a bad time

so this is the part people miss . if you are entering in at that 70-80% range .70-.80 you have to be correct 85%+ of the time to make like 2% and the omega is not going to be great. 15m is a 100% different beast than hourly and if you use the same algo for both your gonna have a bad time

skywurz 2026-07-02 06:16:21 Kalshi

bro claud totally got me a bot that made me 200k on plymarket then i invested in the anthropic ipo and 2xed that

bro claud totally got me a bot that made me 200k on plymarket then i invested in the anthropic ipo and 2xed that

skywurz 2026-07-02 04:57:28 Kalshi

you got quiet so i got worried you got kidnaped by a bear

you got quiet so i got worried you got kidnaped by a bear

skywurz 2026-07-02 04:56:59 Kalshi

yeah them perps look dangerous .. probably hit liquidation

yeah them perps look dangerous .. probably hit liquidation

skywurz 2026-07-02 04:47:30 Kalshi

<@626645666403188741> you ever hear back from your guy? looks like he left the chat

<@626645666403188741> you ever hear back from your guy? looks like he left the chat

skywurz 2026-07-02 04:22:34 Kalshi

buy low sell high dont pick the losing side

buy low sell high dont pick the losing side

skywurz 2026-07-01 08:13:28 Kalshi

posted by someone who just signed up with discord

posted by someone who just signed up with discord

skywurz 2026-07-01 07:57:24 Kalshi

sus tool on sus domain with untraceable payment.. wcgw

sus tool on sus domain with untraceable payment.. wcgw

skywurz 2026-06-30 10:55:19 Kalshi

https://klipy.com/gifs/pay-yo-taxes

https://klipy.com/gifs/pay-yo-taxes

skywurz 2026-06-30 06:48:40 Kalshi

https://klipy.com/gifs/mens-warehouse-i-guarantee-it

https://klipy.com/gifs/mens-warehouse-i-guarantee-it

skywurz 2026-06-30 06:47:33 Kalshi

they are going to ask for feet pics

they are going to ask for feet pics

skywurz 2026-06-27 11:22:35 Kalshi

BTC ETH XRP SOL DOGE BNB

BTC ETH XRP SOL DOGE BNB

skywurz 2026-06-27 09:38:21 Kalshi

I should just throw everything in as 66.60 or 51.50

I should just throw everything in as 66.60 or 51.50

skywurz 2026-06-27 07:36:24 Kalshi

idk if they were running a bot or not but v2 really jacked my shit up

idk if they were running a bot or not but v2 really jacked my shit up

skywurz 2026-06-27 07:35:27 Kalshi

right before v2

right before v2

skywurz 2026-06-27 07:35:19 Kalshi

yeah 6/17

yeah 6/17

skywurz 2026-06-27 07:33:35 Kalshi

or they... 🤔

or they... 🤔

skywurz 2026-06-27 07:33:05 Kalshi

pretty sure he has been missing longer than 2 days

pretty sure he has been missing longer than 2 days

skywurz 2026-06-27 06:24:34 Kalshi

or 5/6th./.. idk im not gonna pull out the calc

or 5/6th./.. idk im not gonna pull out the calc

skywurz 2026-06-27 06:23:58 Kalshi

you have to only be right 4/5ths of the time

you have to only be right 4/5ths of the time

skywurz 2026-06-27 06:21:29 Kalshi

ish

ish

skywurz 2026-06-27 06:21:16 Kalshi

looks like 333 * .78 = 260 so 22% return

looks like 333 * .78 = 260 so 22% return

skywurz 2026-06-27 00:53:56 Kalshi

I.E. everyone already knows thats a loser and nobody wants to pad your loss

I.E. everyone already knows thats a loser and nobody wants to pad your loss

skywurz 2026-06-27 00:49:43 Kalshi

means either nobody is buying or nobody is selling the quantiy at that price

means either nobody is buying or nobody is selling the quantiy at that price

skywurz 2026-06-26 11:15:47 Kalshi

so if in the off chance you actually make money you will get a tax form

so if in the off chance you actually make money you will get a tax form

skywurz 2026-06-26 11:15:14 Kalshi

also these guys are regulated

also these guys are regulated

skywurz 2026-06-26 11:13:39 Kalshi

or has it been 3 months 🤔

or has it been 3 months 🤔

skywurz 2026-06-26 11:13:03 Kalshi

unlike the 2 weeks of phishy stuff at poly

unlike the 2 weeks of phishy stuff at poly

skywurz 2026-06-26 11:12:52 Kalshi

i know what you are saying and i have not seen anything like that the 2 months ive been here

i know what you are saying and i have not seen anything like that the 2 months ive been here

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