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Raskell 2026-06-19 03:54:45 Polymarket

Scenario: You and I agree you come to my birthday party. I announce all meals at my birthday party are paid for. Did I definitively agree to pay for your meal at my birthday party? If you dont show up does that change anything about my agreement?

Scenario: You and I agree you come to my birthday party. I announce all meals at my birthday party are paid for. Did I definitively agree to pay for your meal at my birthday party? If you dont show up does that change anything about my agreement?

Raskell 2026-06-19 03:48:27 Polymarket

<@252215153305583616> I know its creative framing but a rebuttal would be nice

<@252215153305583616> I know its creative framing but a rebuttal would be nice

Raskell 2026-06-19 03:46:26 Polymarket

<@252215153305583616> if we set up a ufc like cage fight and I agree to pay the hospital bill when the fight is over, does it matter if the fight actually goes through for me to have agreed to paying for the bills?

<@252215153305583616> if we set up a ufc like cage fight and I agree to pay the hospital bill when the fight is over, does it matter if the fight actually goes through for me to have agreed to paying for the bills?

Raskell 2026-06-19 03:42:37 Polymarket

No they are definitive, only the point in time depends on when the negotiations are finished. They already agreed to withdraw when its all set and done. Like I agree to wipe my ass when I am done on the toilet. Its not a matter of if, its a matter of when.

No they are definitive, only the point in time depends on when the negotiations are finished. They already agreed to withdraw when its all set and done. Like I agree to wipe my ass when I am done on the toilet. Its not a matter of if, its a matter of when.

Raskell 2026-06-19 03:34:45 Polymarket

its the source of great evil

its the source of great evil

Raskell 2026-06-19 03:34:23 Polymarket

The word definitive in the rules needs to be execute by aircraft cannon kim jong un style

The word definitive in the rules needs to be execute by aircraft cannon kim jong un style

Raskell 2026-06-19 03:33:50 Polymarket

I will wipe my ass once I am done shitting -> thats definitive

I will wipe my ass once I am done shitting -> thats definitive

Raskell 2026-06-19 03:33:34 Polymarket

you can definitively agree to do something after something else is over

you can definitively agree to do something after something else is over

Raskell 2026-06-19 03:28:19 Polymarket

the MOU commitment counts

the MOU commitment counts

Raskell 2026-06-19 03:27:52 Polymarket

it was left out on purpose, for good reason

it was left out on purpose, for good reason

Raskell 2026-06-19 03:26:36 Polymarket

Its over, aenews got the conform text message from shayne <:Sadding:1306492753869537382>

Its over, aenews got the conform text message from shayne <:Sadding:1306492753869537382>

Raskell 2026-06-19 03:23:45 Polymarket

https://tenor.com/view/crystal-the-cavern-spirit-gif-17978315803682945807

https://tenor.com/view/crystal-the-cavern-spirit-gif-17978315803682945807

Raskell 2026-06-19 03:22:56 Polymarket

thats very definitive btw. I know this and I am ESL

thats very definitive btw. I know this and I am ESL

Raskell 2026-06-19 03:19:49 Polymarket

idk why we are even tagging bosaurum, they probably just behead a chicken in the office and that decides it

idk why we are even tagging bosaurum, they probably just behead a chicken in the office and that decides it

Raskell 2026-06-19 03:19:30 Polymarket

https://tenor.com/view/chicken-economy-south-park-gif-8307822425379800206

https://tenor.com/view/chicken-economy-south-park-gif-8307822425379800206

Raskell 2026-06-19 03:15:07 Polymarket

Well put

Well put

Raskell 2026-06-19 03:15:01 Polymarket

if this rule existed in this market I would be with aenews, but its not in the rules. The rules are met.

if this rule existed in this market I would be with aenews, but its not in the rules. The rules are met.

Raskell 2026-06-19 03:13:41 Polymarket

The us is committed to withdrawing, its not a matter of negotiation. The negotiations are about other topics and once they are done, the US will withdraw troops.

The us is committed to withdrawing, its not a matter of negotiation. The negotiations are about other topics and once they are done, the US will withdraw troops.

Raskell 2026-06-19 03:12:04 Polymarket

this MOU wouldnt exist if Trump didnt agree to withdraw troops in it <@941405798096076880>

this MOU wouldnt exist if Trump didnt agree to withdraw troops in it <@941405798096076880>

Raskell 2026-06-19 03:11:31 Polymarket

its included as part of a treaty or deal (MOU)

its included as part of a treaty or deal (MOU)

Raskell 2026-06-19 03:08:33 Polymarket

Its very bad faith to reduce the market to that scenario when the framing is about concessions Trump makes

Its very bad faith to reduce the market to that scenario when the framing is about concessions Trump makes

Raskell 2026-06-19 03:06:42 Polymarket

You presented options that were never going to happen as plausible to try and justify your bad faith interpretation of the rules. Under your rule interpretation the market is DOA except for fringe resolvers like Trump actually pulling out a bunch of troops for other reasons.

You presented options that were never going to happen as plausible to try and justify your bad faith interpretation of the rules. Under your rule interpretation the market is DOA except for fringe resolvers like Trump actually pulling out a bunch of troops for other reasons.

Raskell 2026-06-18 22:55:55 Polymarket

disregard my ping

disregard my ping

Raskell 2026-06-17 23:55:00 Polymarket

bosaurum is smart though, presented with the evidence he will come to the right decision

bosaurum is smart though, presented with the evidence he will come to the right decision

Raskell 2026-06-17 23:54:31 Polymarket

This market is too difficult for people

This market is too difficult for people

Raskell 2026-06-17 23:53:32 Polymarket

Thats as credible as it gets for reporting

Thats as credible as it gets for reporting

Raskell 2026-06-17 23:53:23 Polymarket

All NOTAM aggregators show it. FAA, Skylink API (which pilots use), and all other websites.

All NOTAM aggregators show it. FAA, Skylink API (which pilots use), and all other websites.

Raskell 2026-06-17 23:52:43 Polymarket

How did you make 100k? Btc Up/Down with 50k a pop?

How did you make 100k? Btc Up/Down with 50k a pop?

Raskell 2026-06-17 23:52:16 Polymarket

You dont have a real argument man. Are you saying the FAA is not credible reporting?

You dont have a real argument man. Are you saying the FAA is not credible reporting?

Raskell 2026-06-17 23:51:44 Polymarket

NOTAMS get issued by the Iranian Aviation Authority

NOTAMS get issued by the Iranian Aviation Authority

Raskell 2026-06-17 23:51:28 Polymarket

this site takes forever to update

this site takes forever to update

Raskell 2026-06-17 23:48:40 Polymarket

not to mention there is no time limit in the rules, closing all airports in the west is a strong move even if it was less than 5 hours

not to mention there is no time limit in the rules, closing all airports in the west is a strong move even if it was less than 5 hours

Raskell 2026-06-17 23:48:06 Polymarket

5.5 hours is as long if not longer than the last closure that counted

5.5 hours is as long if not longer than the last closure that counted

Raskell 2026-06-17 23:45:49 Polymarket

NOTAMR means an existing NOTAM is being refreshed, this NOTAMR closes all airports, the problematic NOTAMR last time opened 2 aiports

NOTAMR means an existing NOTAM is being refreshed, this NOTAMR closes all airports, the problematic NOTAMR last time opened 2 aiports

Raskell 2026-06-17 23:44:31 Polymarket

ppl are reading the wrong NOTAM and dont understand what they are betting on. Tough

ppl are reading the wrong NOTAM and dont understand what they are betting on. Tough

Raskell 2026-06-17 23:22:42 Polymarket

lol wrong FIR

lol wrong FIR

Raskell 2026-06-17 23:16:42 Polymarket

https://tenor.com/view/spongebob-squarepants-squidward-night-shift-we%27re-doomed-gif-4186832902922642115

https://tenor.com/view/spongebob-squarepants-squidward-night-shift-we%27re-doomed-gif-4186832902922642115

Raskell 2026-06-17 23:10:46 Polymarket

# dude confirmed, he called the last airspace flip. He is the airspace quant. bond it

# dude confirmed, he called the last airspace flip. He is the airspace quant. bond it

Raskell 2026-06-17 23:09:40 Polymarket

anyone got a real argument against this? except "I bonded", "I am not home" and "nuh uh" ?

anyone got a real argument against this? except "I bonded", "I am not home" and "nuh uh" ?

## **Old situation** ```A1256/26 NOTAMR A1179/26 Q)OIIX/QFALC/IV/NBO/A/000/999/ A)OIIX B)2606160950 C)2606290830EST E)REF NOTAM A1178/26, ALL AIRPORTS IN WEST PART OF TEHRAN FIR ARE CLOSED EXCEPT: - OIAA, OISS, OICC, OIAW, OIFM, OISR, OIAM, OISL, AND OICI OPERATING SUNRISE TO SUNSET (HJ), - IN ADDITION, HAJ FLIGHT IS AUTHORIZED TO OPERATE AT OIFM AND OISS DURING NIGHT PERIOD, - ALL PREVIOUS PERMISSIONS ARE SUSPENDED FOR ALL OPERATORS, - NEW PERMISSION SHALL BE REQUESTED FOR OPERATION OF CIVIL IFR PASSENGER FLIGHTS FROM IRAN CAA.``` ## **New situation** ``` A1271/26 NOTAMR A1256/26 Q)OIIX/QFALC/IV/NBO/A/000/999/ A)OIIX B)2606171159 C)2606171430EST E)REF NOTAM A1270/26, ALL AIRPORTS IN WEST PART OF TEHRAN FIR ARE CLOSED. ``` ## **ANOTHER UPDATE** ``` A1277/26 NOTAMR A1271/26 Q)OIIX/QFALC/IV/NBO/A/000/999/ A)OIIX B)2606171424 C)2606171730EST E)REF NOTAM A1276/26, ALL AIRPORTS IN WEST PART OF TEHRAN FIR ARE CLOSED.``` # VERDICT: OIAA, OISS, OICC, OIAW, OIFM, OISR, OIAM, OISL, AND OICI **ARE NOW CLOSED** (FOR 5.5h AND **ONGOING**) This list includes 2 airports that are explicitly named in the rules: OISS = SYZ and OIFM = IFN Rules: ```Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).```

## **Old situation** ```A1256/26 NOTAMR A1179/26 Q)OIIX/QFALC/IV/NBO/A/000/999/ A)OIIX B)2606160950 C)2606290830EST E)REF NOTAM A1178/26, ALL AIRPORTS IN WEST PART OF TEHRAN FIR ARE CLOSED EXCEPT: - OIAA, OISS, OICC, OIAW, OIFM, OISR, OIAM, OISL, AND OICI OPERATING SUNRISE TO SUNSET (HJ), - IN ADDITION, HAJ FLIGHT IS AUTHORIZED TO OPERATE AT OIFM AND OISS DURING NIGHT PERIOD, - ALL PREVIOUS PERMISSIONS ARE SUSPENDED FOR ALL OPERATORS, - NEW PERMISSION SHALL BE REQUESTED FOR OPERATION OF CIVIL IFR PASSENGER FLIGHTS FROM IRAN CAA.``` ## **New situation** ``` A1271/26 NOTAMR A1256/26 Q)OIIX/QFALC/IV/NBO/A/000/999/ A)OIIX B)2606171159 C)2606171430EST E)REF NOTAM A1270/26, ALL AIRPORTS IN WEST PART OF TEHRAN FIR ARE CLOSED. ``` ## **ANOTHER UPDATE** ``` A1277/26 NOTAMR A1271/26 Q)OIIX/QFALC/IV/NBO/A/000/999/ A)OIIX B)2606171424 C)2606171730EST E)REF NOTAM A1276/26, ALL AIRPORTS IN WEST PART OF TEHRAN FIR ARE CLOSED.``` # VERDICT: OIAA, OISS, OICC, OIAW, OIFM, OISR, OIAM, OISL, AND OICI **ARE NOW CLOSED** (FOR 5.5h AND **ONGOING**) This list includes 2 airports that are explicitly named in the rules: OISS = SYZ and OIFM = IFN Rules: ```Any non-weather complete suspension of commercial arrivals and departures affecting at least two of the following airports will qualify: Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKA), Mehrabad Airport (THR), Mashhad International Airport (MHD), Shiraz International Airport (SYZ), or Isfahan International Airport (IFN).```

Raskell 2026-06-17 23:08:59 Polymarket

i take it back

i take it back

Raskell 2026-06-17 23:08:23 Polymarket

god washed up confirmed

god washed up confirmed

Raskell 2026-06-17 23:06:02 Polymarket

FAA has the NOTAMs, Skylink API has the NOTAMs, Notamify has them too

FAA has the NOTAMs, Skylink API has the NOTAMs, Notamify has them too

Raskell 2026-06-17 23:05:34 Polymarket

we dropped the news here at that price and no one was believing

we dropped the news here at that price and no one was believing

Raskell 2026-06-17 19:59:55 Polymarket

PM is in trouble 😱

PM is in trouble 😱

Raskell 2026-06-17 19:49:00 Polymarket

https://tenor.com/view/tom-and-jerry-gene-deitch-era-dicky-moe-1962-episode-8-gif-5333718338965407910

https://tenor.com/view/tom-and-jerry-gene-deitch-era-dicky-moe-1962-episode-8-gif-5333718338965407910

Raskell 2026-06-17 19:46:35 Polymarket

today is the day

today is the day

Raskell 2026-06-17 19:43:28 Polymarket

Whatever happened to that account

Whatever happened to that account

Raskell 2026-06-17 19:43:22 Polymarket

how come almost no one impersonates ppl on pm any more. I remember Nancy Pelosi doing pretty well

how come almost no one impersonates ppl on pm any more. I remember Nancy Pelosi doing pretty well

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