聊天记录
共 77 条，显示第 1-50 条
The market resolves NO if: both parties continue to deny it; the messages are shown to be from an impersonator, a hack, or fabricated; or no conclusive proof in either direction emerges by the resolution date. The default/standard is NO — absence of proof resolves NO. Unverified screenshots, secondhand witness claims (e.g., journalists saying they saw the post), and media speculation do not by themselves satisfy the YES criteria.
Resolution Source
Official statements from Eric Trump or Daniel Cormier (verified social media accounts or on-record press), official UFC statements, and reputable outlets (Yahoo Sports, ESPN, AP, Reuters). Any official investigation findings or platform/legal records confirming message authenticity take precedence.
The market resolves NO if: both parties continue to deny it; the messages are shown to be from an impersonator, a hack, or fabricated; or no conclusive proof in either direction emerges by the resolution date. The default/standard is NO — absence of proof resolves NO. Unverified screenshots, secondhand witness claims (e.g., journalists saying they saw the post), and media speculation do not by themselves satisfy the YES criteria.
Resolution Source
Official statements from Eric Trump or Daniel Cormier (verified social media accounts or on-record press), official UFC statements, and reputable outlets (Yahoo Sports, ESPN, AP, Reuters). Any official investigation findings or platform/legal records confirming message authenticity take precedence.
Market Title
Will it be proven that Eric Trump messaged Daniel Cormier asking if UFC White House fights were rigged?
Outcomes
Yes / No
Market Description
Ahead of UFC Freedom 250 at the White House (June 2026), Daniel Cormier posted — then deleted within roughly an hour — screenshots of alleged DMs from Eric Trump asking whether any of the White House card's fights were "rigged" or fixed, including a reference to betting on the Lopes fight ("Are any of the fights tomorrow rigged? ... $$"). Cormier captioned it: "I refuse to stay silent... I will not tolerate this type of insider behavior."
Both parties have since denied the exchange occurred. Eric Trump called it "completely fake" and said he never contacted Cormier, while pointing to the deletion as evidence of fabrication. However, MMA journalist Adam Martin and others claim they saw and screen-captured the post before it was removed. Competing theories include: (1) the messages were genuine, (2) Cormier's account was hacked, (3) someone impersonated Eric Trump in the DMs, or (4) Cormier fabricated/lied. This market resolves whether the exchange is affirmatively proven to have genuinely originated from Eric Trump to Daniel Cormier.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
This market resolves YES only if, by the resolution date, credible verifiable proof emerges confirming that Eric Trump personally sent Daniel Cormier messages asking whether UFC White House fights were rigged/fixed. Acceptable proof includes:
A clear admission/confirmation from Eric Trump or Daniel Cormier that the messages were authentic and sent by Eric Trump, OR
Platform-verified data (e.g., X/Meta/Truth Social account records, law-enforcement or official investigation findings, or court-admitted evidence) confirming the messages originated from Eric Trump's genuine account.
Market Title
Will it be proven that Eric Trump messaged Daniel Cormier asking if UFC White House fights were rigged?
Outcomes
Yes / No
Market Description
Ahead of UFC Freedom 250 at the White House (June 2026), Daniel Cormier posted — then deleted within roughly an hour — screenshots of alleged DMs from Eric Trump asking whether any of the White House card's fights were "rigged" or fixed, including a reference to betting on the Lopes fight ("Are any of the fights tomorrow rigged? ... $$"). Cormier captioned it: "I refuse to stay silent... I will not tolerate this type of insider behavior."
Both parties have since denied the exchange occurred. Eric Trump called it "completely fake" and said he never contacted Cormier, while pointing to the deletion as evidence of fabrication. However, MMA journalist Adam Martin and others claim they saw and screen-captured the post before it was removed. Competing theories include: (1) the messages were genuine, (2) Cormier's account was hacked, (3) someone impersonated Eric Trump in the DMs, or (4) Cormier fabricated/lied. This market resolves whether the exchange is affirmatively proven to have genuinely originated from Eric Trump to Daniel Cormier.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
This market resolves YES only if, by the resolution date, credible verifiable proof emerges confirming that Eric Trump personally sent Daniel Cormier messages asking whether UFC White House fights were rigged/fixed. Acceptable proof includes:
A clear admission/confirmation from Eric Trump or Daniel Cormier that the messages were authentic and sent by Eric Trump, OR
Platform-verified data (e.g., X/Meta/Truth Social account records, law-enforcement or official investigation findings, or court-admitted evidence) confirming the messages originated from Eric Trump's genuine account.
I want a polymarket on when we get it back...
I want a polymarket on when we get it back...
insanity
insanity
https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access
https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access
Market Title
Will Anthropic restore Fable 5 / Mythos 5 access for US API users by [date]?
June 13, by June 14, by June 15, etc.
Outcomes
Yes
No
Market Description
On June 12, 2026, Anthropic announced it received a US government directive (received 5:21 PM ET) requiring the immediate global suspension of Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all customers, citing a discovered jailbreak method. All other Anthropic models are unaffected. Anthropic stated it disagrees with the order, considers the vulnerability narrow, and is "working to restore access as soon as possible," with more details promised within 24 hours. This market resolves on whether access is restored for US-based users by the specified date.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if, by 11:59 PM ET on [date], Anthropic has publicly restored access to either Fable 5 or Mythos 5 for general US-based users (via official announcement, status page update, or the models becoming usable again in-product for US accounts). Resolves NO otherwise. A limited/staged rollback (e.g. only to a subset of enterprise customers) does not count unless generally available to US users.
Resolution source
Anthropic's official announcement / news page: https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access
Anthropic status page and official @AnthropicAI communications
Market Title
Will Anthropic restore Fable 5 / Mythos 5 access for US API users by [date]?
June 13, by June 14, by June 15, etc.
Outcomes
Yes
No
Market Description
On June 12, 2026, Anthropic announced it received a US government directive (received 5:21 PM ET) requiring the immediate global suspension of Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all customers, citing a discovered jailbreak method. All other Anthropic models are unaffected. Anthropic stated it disagrees with the order, considers the vulnerability narrow, and is "working to restore access as soon as possible," with more details promised within 24 hours. This market resolves on whether access is restored for US-based users by the specified date.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if, by 11:59 PM ET on [date], Anthropic has publicly restored access to either Fable 5 or Mythos 5 for general US-based users (via official announcement, status page update, or the models becoming usable again in-product for US accounts). Resolves NO otherwise. A limited/staged rollback (e.g. only to a subset of enterprise customers) does not count unless generally available to US users.
Resolution source
Anthropic's official announcement / news page: https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access
Anthropic status page and official @AnthropicAI communications
I don’t actually want to hold my IPO shares for the month… let me hedgeee
I don’t actually want to hold my IPO shares for the month… let me hedgeee
Can you quant guys give liquidity to that market
Can you quant guys give liquidity to that market
https://polymarket.com/event/spacex-closing-market-cap-end-of-ipo-month-20260606222757973
https://polymarket.com/event/spacex-closing-market-cap-end-of-ipo-month-20260606222757973
How long does it generally take for a KYC form to get approval?
How long does it generally take for a KYC form to get approval?
I thjnk
I thjnk
To maximize growth rate instead
To maximize growth rate instead
Or E(log(w))
Or E(log(w))
Also Geomean of wealth works
Also Geomean of wealth works
Icic
Icic
EV says all, and if I kept offering you the bet you’d eventually lose your money practically guaranteed
EV says all, and if I kept offering you the bet you’d eventually lose your money practically guaranteed
Hmm well I wouldn’t use EV,
Like for a hypothetical imagine this. I have a coin that has a 51% chance of landing on heads, and a 49% chance of landing on tails. If it lands on heads, you double your money, if it lands on tails, you lose it all. How much of your wealth should you put in?
Hmm well I wouldn’t use EV,
Like for a hypothetical imagine this. I have a coin that has a 51% chance of landing on heads, and a 49% chance of landing on tails. If it lands on heads, you double your money, if it lands on tails, you lose it all. How much of your wealth should you put in?
Just raw wealth gain?
Just raw wealth gain?
But curious what numbers you all are optimizing for
But curious what numbers you all are optimizing for
Backtesting would help
Backtesting would help
I’d want to enter my model at random times and see if it at least breaks even with no latency race
I’d want to enter my model at random times and see if it at least breaks even with no latency race
Like
Like
Ceiling*
Ceiling*
I just mean as like a floor
I just mean as like a floor
Oh yeah
Oh yeah
Or couldn’t you just record?
Or couldn’t you just record?
Isn’t there historical orderbook data to use?
Isn’t there historical orderbook data to use?
What do you aim to maximize?
What do you aim to maximize?
Curious about what metrics yall measure when backtesting
Curious about what metrics yall measure when backtesting
You need to be way better than 50%…
You need to be way better than 50%…
I think most money goes into a few accounts…
I think most money goes into a few accounts…
What part are you struggling with particularly?
What part are you struggling with particularly?
About how difficult the model is to make
About how difficult the model is to make
But u got me curious
But u got me curious
I don’t think I can win this race
I don’t think I can win this race
I won’t actually enter the market
I won’t actually enter the market
I might give it a look
I might give it a look
Hmm
Hmm
You can achieve this with some model types
You can achieve this with some model types
So it’s best if it’s freer than any particular shape
So it’s best if it’s freer than any particular shape
I have no clue what to assume
I have no clue what to assume
No specific shape
No specific shape
No
No
Yeah the fair value should be derivable from a PDF
Yeah the fair value should be derivable from a PDF
Insane calculus required
Insane calculus required
Can’t do that in my head tho…
Can’t do that in my head tho…
I think once you have the PDF you can deduce what orders you need to place
I think once you have the PDF you can deduce what orders you need to place
I would pass my PDF of the price, poly orderbook, fees model, and my current position into the Kelly criterion (modified for rebalancing) and then place the orders it tells me
I would pass my PDF of the price, poly orderbook, fees model, and my current position into the Kelly criterion (modified for rebalancing) and then place the orders it tells me
Or you mean if I don’t have the probability distribution
Or you mean if I don’t have the probability distribution
You mean if I have the price and probability distribution? And poly orderbook?
You mean if I have the price and probability distribution? And poly orderbook?
Polymarket