PolymarketOh I see
Oh I see
Gizmodian参与话题 1消息总数 77
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共 77 条，显示第 51-77 条Yeah from time to time
Yeah from time to time
Train Val test split or whatever
Train Val test split or whatever
I would just backtest first
I would just backtest first
lol
lol
Wdym
Wdym
Should be <1ms after grabbing updated btc data (not accounting for poly latency)
Should be <1ms after grabbing updated btc data (not accounting for poly latency)
Then just run probability distribution through Kelly criterion optimized for rebalancing?
Then just run probability distribution through Kelly criterion optimized for rebalancing?
I feel like that’s where the majority of it lies
I feel like that’s where the majority of it lies
Maybe past prices, bitcoin market orders, bitcoin orderbook, and idk twitter posts? Not sure how much Twitter influences 5 min tho
Maybe past prices, bitcoin market orders, bitcoin orderbook, and idk twitter posts? Not sure how much Twitter influences 5 min tho
That’s the only thing I can think of thats useful for betting
That’s the only thing I can think of thats useful for betting
What exactly is it that yall model exactly? It’s just a probability distribution over all possible prices right? Updated constantly?
What exactly is it that yall model exactly? It’s just a probability distribution over all possible prices right? Updated constantly?
I thought it was just a latency race but ig I was wrong
I thought it was just a latency race but ig I was wrong
Interesting
Interesting
Getting calibrated distributions and whatnot
Getting calibrated distributions and whatnot
I haven’t had much trouble modeling other markers
I haven’t had much trouble modeling other markers
Is it really that hard?
Is it really that hard?
Sometimes I like to donate to yall and put a couple bucks up or down before the 5 min starts
Sometimes I like to donate to yall and put a couple bucks up or down before the 5 min starts
Too crazy for me
Too crazy for me
I ain’t joining this market 😂
I ain’t joining this market 😂
I feel like if you try you should get a calibrated model very easily
I feel like if you try you should get a calibrated model very easily
Well to my understanding isn’t the modeling the easy part? Theres only so much info you can grab from the data right?
Well to my understanding isn’t the modeling the easy part? Theres only so much info you can grab from the data right?
Hm
Hm
Is it just a latency race?
Is it just a latency race?
How do people make money on these markets?
How do people make money on these markets?
guys if i tell fable to make me money will it?
guys if i tell fable to make me money will it?
Market Title: SpaceX (SPCX) closing market cap on June 30, 2026? Outcomes (neg-risk): Less than $1.0T $1.0T to $1.5T $1.5T to $2.0T $2.0T to $2.5T $2.5T to $3.0T $3.0T to $3.5T $3.5T or more SpaceX not trading by June 30, 2026 Market Description: This market resolves based on the market capitalization of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) at the close of the last regular-way trading day of June 2026 (June 30, 2026). Proposed Resolution Criteria: Closing market cap = (official Nasdaq closing price of SPCX on June 30, 2026) × (total shares of common stock outstanding as stated on the cover of SpaceX's final IPO prospectus, Rule 424B filing). Bracket bounds are lower-inclusive, upper-exclusive (e.g., "$1.5T to $2.0T" = ≥ $1.5T and < $2.0T). If SPCX has not commenced regular-way trading on Nasdaq on or before June 30, 2026, the market resolves "SpaceX not trading by June 30, 2026." Resolution source: Official Nasdaq closing price (consolidated last sale) for SPCX on June 30, 2026; share count from SpaceX's final 424B prospectus on SEC EDGAR (sec.gov). Note: It'd also be great to add markets for "market cap greater than" and other similar ones, just like for the opening day closing market.
Market Title: SpaceX (SPCX) closing market cap on June 30, 2026? Outcomes (neg-risk): Less than $1.0T $1.0T to $1.5T $1.5T to $2.0T $2.0T to $2.5T $2.5T to $3.0T $3.0T to $3.5T $3.5T or more SpaceX not trading by June 30, 2026 Market Description: This market resolves based on the market capitalization of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) at the close of the last regular-way trading day of June 2026 (June 30, 2026). Proposed Resolution Criteria: Closing market cap = (official Nasdaq closing price of SPCX on June 30, 2026) × (total shares of common stock outstanding as stated on the cover of SpaceX's final IPO prospectus, Rule 424B filing). Bracket bounds are lower-inclusive, upper-exclusive (e.g., "$1.5T to $2.0T" = ≥ $1.5T and < $2.0T). If SPCX has not commenced regular-way trading on Nasdaq on or before June 30, 2026, the market resolves "SpaceX not trading by June 30, 2026." Resolution source: Official Nasdaq closing price (consolidated last sale) for SPCX on June 30, 2026; share count from SpaceX's final 424B prospectus on SEC EDGAR (sec.gov). Note: It'd also be great to add markets for "market cap greater than" and other similar ones, just like for the opening day closing market.
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