Brian K参与话题 0消息总数 3

Brian K 2026-06-21 13:10:45 ↗ Kalshi

Will any SSPX clergy be excommunicated by July 31?

Will any SSPX clergy be excommunicated by July 31?

Brian K 2026-06-10 00:52:27 ↗ Kalshi

While we’re on Social Security markets, we should have markets on whether they’ll raise the age or the income cap.

While we’re on Social Security markets, we should have markets on whether they’ll raise the age or the income cap.

Brian K 2026-06-10 00:52:22 ↗ Kalshi

Love the new social security market but would also like a multiple-strike market based on either percent change in payouts vs a certain timeframe or dollar value payouts. Reasoning: Current market based on trust fund depletion doesn’t fully capture people’s fear of a “collapse” or Social Security “not existing” since it’s a binary on whether payouts are cut even just a little bit. Ooth, you could have markets for “Will monthly Social Security Payments fall below $1 Trillion” or “What will Social Security Payments be for (month)” with strikes every few hundred billion. This could help people predict/hedge the more relevant question of just how bad a falloff would be.

Love the new social security market but would also like a multiple-strike market based on either percent change in payouts vs a certain timeframe or dollar value payouts. Reasoning: Current market based on trust fund depletion doesn’t fully capture people’s fear of a “collapse” or Social Security “not existing” since it’s a binary on whether payouts are cut even just a little bit. Ooth, you could have markets for “Will monthly Social Security Payments fall below $1 Trillion” or “What will Social Security Payments be for (month)” with strikes every few hundred billion. This could help people predict/hedge the more relevant question of just how bad a falloff would be.