Polymarketill add a tab that looks for just those
ill add a tab that looks for just those
r2d2参与话题 7消息总数 111
该用户的聊天记录定位。
聊天记录
共 111 条，显示第 51-100 条i have an app i made
i have an app i made
hey is the only way to get whitelisted for proposals going through the UMA discord? I got banned there
hey is the only way to get whitelisted for proposals going through the UMA discord? I got banned there
agreeing you can charge after 60 days if you want
agreeing you can charge after 60 days if you want
true! agree!
true! agree!
Ok but arguing with quotes that do not count, and everyone knows dont count, is bad faith
Ok but arguing with quotes that do not count, and everyone knows dont count, is bad faith
You claim bad faith arguments from others, yet you keep posting examples of non public statements that don't count
You claim bad faith arguments from others, yet you keep posting examples of non public statements that don't count
Excactly, I've lost markets due to "not public statement" claims... only public statement is "keeping him sane"
Excactly, I've lost markets due to "not public statement" claims... only public statement is "keeping him sane"
yeah, I've lost markets to the "it wasn't public" claim
yeah, I've lost markets to the "it wasn't public" claim
i bought NO for Bibi insult. I don't know how the market will go but to me, it wasn't an insult, unless Bibi is a very fragile boy
i bought NO for Bibi insult. I don't know how the market will go but to me, it wasn't an insult, unless Bibi is a very fragile boy
so, journey through Lebanon recognize Israel market... bought some NO at .30 (because it's not legal recognition), then saw holders and all big names were on YES, so though I'd likely lose. Checked discord channel and there was a nasty war going over whether Lebanon recognized Israel. Wrote my opinion, got insulted. Then a user called Domer stepped into the discussion, at first arguing it was YES. Then he changed his mind to NO and market flipped to .70 YES Market continued to around .90 YES, then a user called Arbguy started mass buying NO, went to around .50 Then UMA started voting. UMA Rocks voted YES, my position went down to around .07 Then a man who goes by the nickname of Jessica voted NO and my position went to .95. Sold
so, journey through Lebanon recognize Israel market... bought some NO at .30 (because it's not legal recognition), then saw holders and all big names were on YES, so though I'd likely lose. Checked discord channel and there was a nasty war going over whether Lebanon recognized Israel. Wrote my opinion, got insulted. Then a user called Domer stepped into the discussion, at first arguing it was YES. Then he changed his mind to NO and market flipped to .70 YES Market continued to around .90 YES, then a user called Arbguy started mass buying NO, went to around .50 Then UMA started voting. UMA Rocks voted YES, my position went down to around .07 Then a man who goes by the nickname of Jessica voted NO and my position went to .95. Sold
way too much
way too much
NO 60+
NO 60+
For me it's 80% chance YES. The 60+ is free money though. However the report won't come out today, no one knows when
For me it's 80% chance YES. The 60+ is free money though. However the report won't come out today, no one knows when
double agent?
double agent?
people will always have issues, especially with money involved, as different parties have different interpretations, and people who lose don't always accept it... but it is different. Rules are clearer, they clarify often before the market ends and before there are disputes... I like it here because there are more markets I like but it is cleaner in Kalshi
people will always have issues, especially with money involved, as different parties have different interpretations, and people who lose don't always accept it... but it is different. Rules are clearer, they clarify often before the market ends and before there are disputes... I like it here because there are more markets I like but it is cleaner in Kalshi
Is this UMA Jessica? Wasn't Jessica a man?
Is this UMA Jessica? Wasn't Jessica a man?
Dm i can give you my cheat sheet
Dm i can give you my cheat sheet
Big one was getting ship count correctly 2 weeks ago in the lower brackets, got around 3x... and right now Ive got 2 positions I bought from .20-.40 and are at .80
Big one was getting ship count correctly 2 weeks ago in the lower brackets, got around 3x... and right now Ive got 2 positions I bought from .20-.40 and are at .80
I doubt that's their priority
I doubt that's their priority
the issue is additional context written by an 8 year old
the issue is additional context written by an 8 year old
isn't he a bot?
isn't he a bot?
lol true
lol true
i believe Iran did claim responsibility last time
i believe Iran did claim responsibility last time
im not in the attack market, im in the "amount of ships passing through Hormuz" markets
im not in the attack market, im in the "amount of ships passing through Hormuz" markets
i meant all bullish ship counting positions like this one https://polymarket.com/event/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30/will-60-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30-2026 . 60 not happening
i meant all bullish ship counting positions like this one https://polymarket.com/event/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30/will-60-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30-2026 . 60 not happening
i think its over for bullish Hormuz positions
i think its over for bullish Hormuz positions
hi.. Polymarket blocked me, yet I am in Panama, live here, from PAnama
hi.. Polymarket blocked me, yet I am in Panama, live here, from PAnama
sounds good, always good to have alternatives... but I doubt they will have the insane markets and liquidity of Polymarket lol
sounds good, always good to have alternatives... but I doubt they will have the insane markets and liquidity of Polymarket lol
dunno, they have to wait 3 years into his Presidency to see if it's legit
dunno, they have to wait 3 years into his Presidency to see if it's legit
it's not but I can clearly see here how these markets flip
it's not but I can clearly see here how these markets flip
wow 🤣
wow 🤣
i bought a bit of cheap YES here just in case UMA decides that was somehow an insult
i bought a bit of cheap YES here just in case UMA decides that was somehow an insult
You put limit orders and wait
You put limit orders and wait
Not today, you have to buy throughout the week, if you buy one day $100 you move the market 50%🤣
Not today, you have to buy throughout the week, if you buy one day $100 you move the market 50%🤣
I like it that way, low liquidity so everyone isn't trying to manipulate what Portwatch "actually" says 😂
I like it that way, low liquidity so everyone isn't trying to manipulate what Portwatch "actually" says 😂
actually, don't be that surprised if today's report shows no days 20+. My estimate is 21, and I could be off by 2
actually, don't be that surprised if today's report shows no days 20+. My estimate is 21, and I could be off by 2
I think 40 NO is a better bet
I think 40 NO is a better bet
sweet spot 50-74, I hedged with 75-99,
sweet spot 50-74, I hedged with 75-99,
40+ total yes, 40 in one day, not yet
40+ total yes, 40 in one day, not yet
for one day? no
for one day? no
i keep track of a couple, I've been able to win the last 3 weeks within 5 ships count... that 71 isn't that clear, you have to discount anything that isn't commercial, that's usually how people assume too high
i keep track of a couple, I've been able to win the last 3 weeks within 5 ships count... that 71 isn't that clear, you have to discount anything that isn't commercial, that's usually how people assume too high
true
true
yeah but I keep a sheet and daily track there are always ships with AIG off, even pre crisis era, just a smaller percentage. first 3 days still had high % of AIG off (still crisis). Then went down Thursday Friday. Then Iran got angry again, Saturday Sunday were high % of AIG off again
yeah but I keep a sheet and daily track there are always ships with AIG off, even pre crisis era, just a smaller percentage. first 3 days still had high % of AIG off (still crisis). Then went down Thursday Friday. Then Iran got angry again, Saturday Sunday were high % of AIG off again
today 10 AM ET
today 10 AM ET
portwatch massively undercounts compared to other sources. AIG only, commercial only (discounts plenty here). look at last week, everyone was betting on 25-49, I won with 0-25 . My estimate was 22, Portwatch showed 18
portwatch massively undercounts compared to other sources. AIG only, commercial only (discounts plenty here). look at last week, everyone was betting on 25-49, I won with 0-25 . My estimate was 22, Portwatch showed 18
isn't that a Gemini VEO video? has the watermark
isn't that a Gemini VEO video? has the watermark
https://polymarket.com/@ragutwo
https://polymarket.com/@ragutwo
my cost averages and "traded" amounts are all at 0. my Portfolio does have the right amount. Google Chrome / Linux / Laptop
my cost averages and "traded" amounts are all at 0. my Portfolio does have the right amount. Google Chrome / Linux / Laptop
cool
cool