Polymarket🤡
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Hakei参与话题 30消息总数 920
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共 920 条，显示第 751-800 条Oil perp action in the last 60 minutes is nothing to sniff at 👀
Oil perp action in the last 60 minutes is nothing to sniff at 👀
The market is announce trade, not intent to trade.
The market is announce trade, not intent to trade.
An announcement of what? It's certainly not an announcement of "I am divorced". That's not a correct analysis of the statement made.
An announcement of what? It's certainly not an announcement of "I am divorced". That's not a correct analysis of the statement made.
This applies to whether or not the ceasefire takes effect *from when the ceasefire is announced*, which it has not been.
This applies to whether or not the ceasefire takes effect *from when the ceasefire is announced*, which it has not been.
Maybe an easier analogy: I'm married to someone, a man, let's say. The market is "When will Hakei announce his divorce?" If, on the 13th, I say "We're signing the divorce papers tomorrow", I have not announced my divorce. I've announced my *intent* to divorce.
Maybe an easier analogy: I'm married to someone, a man, let's say. The market is "When will Hakei announce his divorce?" If, on the 13th, I say "We're signing the divorce papers tomorrow", I have not announced my divorce. I've announced my *intent* to divorce.
No, the announcement in my hypothetical is "we *have* swapped cash for console". That's what's materially different. The announcement required is: We have extended the ceasefire The announcement we currently have is: We are going to extend the ceasefire on Sunday
No, the announcement in my hypothetical is "we *have* swapped cash for console". That's what's materially different. The announcement required is: We have extended the ceasefire The announcement we currently have is: We are going to extend the ceasefire on Sunday
If I give you $10 to buy your old PS1 right now, and you give me your PS1, we've made a trade. If I say "I'll give you $10 tomorrow in exchange for your PS1" and you say "Okay, I'll be there", we've not made a trade. The market's structure requires the elements to mimic #2, not #1.
If I give you $10 to buy your old PS1 right now, and you give me your PS1, we've made a trade. If I say "I'll give you $10 tomorrow in exchange for your PS1" and you say "Okay, I'll be there", we've not made a trade. The market's structure requires the elements to mimic #2, not #1.
The extension isn't announced until it's signed. There's a difference between those two things.
The extension isn't announced until it's signed. There's a difference between those two things.
https://tenor.com/view/interstellar-no-no-no-gif-15094791629266170630
https://tenor.com/view/interstellar-no-no-no-gif-15094791629266170630
🤷🏾♂️
🤷🏾♂️
(I lost 2k on Mythos market going "Yes")
(I lost 2k on Mythos market going "Yes")
If you don't like the terms of the market, don't trade it. I think there's little interest in "Will Claude Mythos be available for longer than 7 days?" as an alternative
If you don't like the terms of the market, don't trade it. I think there's little interest in "Will Claude Mythos be available for longer than 7 days?" as an alternative
No one purchasing "No" could reasonably believe the title/rules/spirit of the market would disqualify a "Yes" resolution because access was restricted a few days after the fact
No one purchasing "No" could reasonably believe the title/rules/spirit of the market would disqualify a "Yes" resolution because access was restricted a few days after the fact
There's no clause in the rules requiring "long term" accessibility, though
There's no clause in the rules requiring "long term" accessibility, though
The market resolved correctly
The market resolved correctly
It was released and available for multiple days
It was released and available for multiple days
As everyone else has asked - please add this market. This is actually a genuine situation where people can use it to hedge. I NEED FABLE 5 BACK.
As everyone else has asked - please add this market. This is actually a genuine situation where people can use it to hedge. I NEED FABLE 5 BACK.
https://polymarket.com/event/another-us-strike-on-venezuela-by/another-us-strike-on-venezuela-by-december-31 https://x.com/SecWar/status/2065613430074065246 Market resolves "Yes".
https://polymarket.com/event/another-us-strike-on-venezuela-by/another-us-strike-on-venezuela-by-december-31 https://x.com/SecWar/status/2065613430074065246 Market resolves "Yes".
I won't talk about the optimal game theory strategy here, because it could get very nasty, very quickly. 🙂
I won't talk about the optimal game theory strategy here, because it could get very nasty, very quickly. 🙂
Only one market can resolve Y, so if a blackout happens, it doesn't change the situation
Only one market can resolve Y, so if a blackout happens, it doesn't change the situation
If they resolve both to "No", the money disappears
If they resolve both to "No", the money disappears
What happened: Iran strike was confirmed by Polymarket via a clarification, which meant that 4 was the correct answer, but 4 had already resolved "No", so they resolved 3 as Y and refunded the 4.
What happened: Iran strike was confirmed by Polymarket via a clarification, which meant that 4 was the correct answer, but 4 had already resolved "No", so they resolved 3 as Y and refunded the 4.
https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-strike-in-february
https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-strike-in-february
They misresolved the US strike market in Feb because of this
They misresolved the US strike market in Feb because of this
One has to resolve Y
One has to resolve Y
No, they can't
No, they can't
I should've sold all of them, though
I should've sold all of them, though
Sometimes 😂
Sometimes 😂
Feels bad to be whoever purchased this
Feels bad to be whoever purchased this
So I'm just some guy who didn't win or lose anything
So I'm just some guy who didn't win or lose anything
I sold 2k shares at 75 to cover the cost
I sold 2k shares at 75 to cover the cost
Sell or hodl?
Sell or hodl?
Banger game 😎
Banger game 😎
Anyone watching T1 HLE?
Anyone watching T1 HLE?
Yeah I mean positive EV could mean getting 1:100 on a 1,000-sided dice but if you only trade 50 times a month you can look like a chump. However, in practice, on Polymarket, most EV realized because trading prices and action just aren't like that
Yeah I mean positive EV could mean getting 1:100 on a 1,000-sided dice but if you only trade 50 times a month you can look like a chump. However, in practice, on Polymarket, most EV realized because trading prices and action just aren't like that
Like okay, I used to be fat as fuck, now I'm not, looks like I know what to do to get out of that situation
Like okay, I used to be fat as fuck, now I'm not, looks like I know what to do to get out of that situation
And then the person saying "well you used to be negative"
And then the person saying "well you used to be negative"
It's retarded if you were mostly negative until you were really positive
It's retarded if you were mostly negative until you were really positive
Why are you cutting off the graph early?
Why are you cutting off the graph early?
You can buy "No" shares if you want
You can buy "No" shares if you want
🤷🏾♂️ It's in Allah's hands.
🤷🏾♂️ It's in Allah's hands.
It's 2 hours old, yes
It's 2 hours old, yes
https://www.axios.com/2026/06/12/iran-deal-mou-strait-open-sanctions-relief
https://www.axios.com/2026/06/12/iran-deal-mou-strait-open-sanctions-relief
For real for real this time
For real for real this time
Some signals that an agreement is coming this weekend
Some signals that an agreement is coming this weekend
Barak Ravid
Barak Ravid
And since Polymarket's size is immaterial to the global market, I can't be accused of trying to pump bags
And since Polymarket's size is immaterial to the global market, I can't be accused of trying to pump bags
I know most won't be interested in perps but I feel like an oil short right now is a good option 🤷🏾♂️
I know most won't be interested in perps but I feel like an oil short right now is a good option 🤷🏾♂️
Yeah, that seems like an option too
Yeah, that seems like an option too