2026-06-13 · Polymarket · 9 条相关讨论
🤣 I think the following market should be refunded; the settlement is too fast, but that isn’t fair to the people who bought No https://polymarket.com/event/claude-mythos-released-by https://polymarket.com/event/claude-5-released-by
🤣 I think the following market should be refunded; the settlement is too fast, but that isn’t fair to the people who bought No https://polymarket.com/event/claude-mythos-released-by https://polymarket.com/event/claude-5-released-by
It was released and available for multiple days
It was released and available for multiple days
The market resolved correctly
The market resolved correctly
This feels like the Strategy one but flipped. MSTR actually sold the BTC before the deadline, but Polymarket settled NO because the 8-K confirmation came after cutoff ("confirmation outside the timeframe doesn't count"). Here the model was released and publicly available for days, but now it's completely suspended for everyone due to the US gov export control order. The market says "publicly accessible" — it wasn't really, long-term.
This feels like the Strategy one but flipped. MSTR actually sold the BTC before the deadline, but Polymarket settled NO because the 8-K confirmation came after cutoff ("confirmation outside the timeframe doesn't count"). Here the model was released and publicly available for days, but now it's completely suspended for everyone due to the US gov export control order. The market says "publicly accessible" — it wasn't really, long-term.
There's no clause in the rules requiring "long term" accessibility, though
There's no clause in the rules requiring "long term" accessibility, though
No one purchasing "No" could reasonably believe the title/rules/spirit of the market would disqualify a "Yes" resolution because access was restricted a few days after the fact
No one purchasing "No" could reasonably believe the title/rules/spirit of the market would disqualify a "Yes" resolution because access was restricted a few days after the fact
So when they're removing their old models we should refund these kind of markets too ?
So when they're removing their old models we should refund these kind of markets too ?
Doesn't make any sense, you were just on the yes side
Doesn't make any sense, you were just on the yes side
I’m saying the market design is weak: a brief public release can technically satisfy the rules, even if access disappears right after. That may be a correct YES resolution under the wording, but it still feels like a bad market.
I’m saying the market design is weak: a brief public release can technically satisfy the rules, even if access disappears right after. That may be a correct YES resolution under the wording, but it still feels like a bad market.