PolymarketCould be.
Could be.
Shreekz参与话题 0消息总数 45
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共 45 条，显示第 1-45 条Let me see if r/PredictionsMarkets has anything to say about this.,
Let me see if r/PredictionsMarkets has anything to say about this.,
Because I thought it was common knowledge that same-market arbitrage opportunities exist, but apparently not according to you.
Because I thought it was common knowledge that same-market arbitrage opportunities exist, but apparently not according to you.
I gotta thank you. You gave me something to look into.
I gotta thank you. You gave me something to look into.
Anyway, y'all have a great week!
Anyway, y'all have a great week!
Because I do not care. LOL
Because I do not care. LOL
I'll look into it.
I'll look into it.
has anybody talked about this in detail?
has anybody talked about this in detail?
It doesn't.
It doesn't.
Yeah, there are definitely some weirdos here; wasn't expecting it to be honest.
Yeah, there are definitely some weirdos here; wasn't expecting it to be honest.
Maybe that dude is just a troll.
Maybe that dude is just a troll.
Maybe to you it is.
Maybe to you it is.
Nah.
Nah.
Nah.
Nah.
Is that supposed to be an insult?
Is that supposed to be an insult?
Interesting.
Interesting.
Pretty sure bots did take advantage of pricing arbitrage in the early days. Maybe that edge is gone; I don't know.
Pretty sure bots did take advantage of pricing arbitrage in the early days. Maybe that edge is gone; I don't know.
Let me look into this.
Let me look into this.
Maybe, what's the percentage?
Maybe, what's the percentage?
That retail traders have edge in prediction markets.
That retail traders have edge in prediction markets.
Let me repeat: show me the evidence.
Let me repeat: show me the evidence.
Again, show me the evidence.
Again, show me the evidence.
Yeah, I don't want that.
Yeah, I don't want that.
Bye.
Bye.
You guys are being unnecessarily hostile.
You guys are being unnecessarily hostile.
You guys have a good day. What a waste of time that was.
You guys have a good day. What a waste of time that was.
Okay, whatever.
Okay, whatever.
Why do you think so? Every debate is ragebait now?
Why do you think so? Every debate is ragebait now?
It does: https://x.com/rohanpaul_ai/status/2023269106808447426?s=20
It does: https://x.com/rohanpaul_ai/status/2023269106808447426?s=20
The bots are ready to take advantage when that happens.
The bots are ready to take advantage when that happens.
It's an example of arbitrage, and it does happen.
It's an example of arbitrage, and it does happen.
Both outcomes not adding up to 1 is an example.
Both outcomes not adding up to 1 is an example.
Or let me put it another way: the bots' winning are entirely technical, and not knowledge-based.
Or let me put it another way: the bots' winning are entirely technical, and not knowledge-based.
What I meant was they're taking advantage of stuff like mispricings. They don't have any edge in the market itself. I hope that's clear.
What I meant was they're taking advantage of stuff like mispricings. They don't have any edge in the market itself. I hope that's clear.
Yep
Yep
Most of them are bots doing arbitrage or taking advantage of other market inefficiencies. Nobody's doing discretionary trading on crypto markets.
Most of them are bots doing arbitrage or taking advantage of other market inefficiencies. Nobody's doing discretionary trading on crypto markets.
What's the loss rate?
What's the loss rate?
Where's the evidence?
Where's the evidence?
And nobody's making money on the crypto prediction markets or sports betting.
And nobody's making money on the crypto prediction markets or sports betting.
And studies have shown that.
And studies have shown that.
I disagree with some of it. The people making money in prediction markets are either insiders or arbitrage bots. The rest lose money.
I disagree with some of it. The people making money in prediction markets are either insiders or arbitrage bots. The rest lose money.
I was thinking the same. This should be an example in textbooks. 😂
I was thinking the same. This should be an example in textbooks. 😂
This shit is funny. 😂
This shit is funny. 😂
I wanna ask you guys a question: Do you have edge (i.e., positive expected value) in prediction markets, or are you just gambling? You don't have to share your edge, but be honest.
I wanna ask you guys a question: Do you have edge (i.e., positive expected value) in prediction markets, or are you just gambling? You don't have to share your edge, but be honest.
LimitlessI wanna ask you guys a question: Do you have edge (i.e., positive expected value) in prediction markets, or are you just gambling? You don't have to share your edge, but be honest.
I wanna ask you guys a question: Do you have edge (i.e., positive expected value) in prediction markets, or are you just gambling? You don't have to share your edge, but be honest.