Polymarket+EV is the strat, marketmaking is the hedge
+EV is the strat, marketmaking is the hedge
! Jeffdagoat参与话题 4消息总数 469
该用户的聊天记录定位。
聊天记录
共 469 条，显示第 401-450 条fair enogh
fair enogh
If you can get +Ev fills that is also a factor
If you can get +Ev fills that is also a factor
Yes but there are anwsers to it
Yes but there are anwsers to it
but yeah
but yeah
You can wear a lead shield
You can wear a lead shield
seems pretty simple
seems pretty simple
so make when you pick up pennies and dont make when the bomb goes off
so make when you pick up pennies and dont make when the bomb goes off
Well, at the end of the day. the target audience here is the retail user trying to gamble
Well, at the end of the day. the target audience here is the retail user trying to gamble
yeah
yeah
Would be harder to sustain
Would be harder to sustain
100%
100%
If you require manipulation or adverse conditions to profit
If you require manipulation or adverse conditions to profit
i wouldnt bet money on that then
i wouldnt bet money on that then
fair enough
fair enough
just 1 more conidtion to add to your model while its happening
just 1 more conidtion to add to your model while its happening
why not
why not
Ideally theyd announce it a few days before they release it(if they do)
Ideally theyd announce it a few days before they release it(if they do)
would be fun to develop
would be fun to develop
youd just integrate a seperate model into your model for the final bit that would play a role
youd just integrate a seperate model into your model for the final bit that would play a role
I dont see how vwap would kill strats though
I dont see how vwap would kill strats though
as long as your model has ppt below what youre quoting
as long as your model has ppt below what youre quoting
Well, i think balanced mm is the best thing you could do
Well, i think balanced mm is the best thing you could do
doesnt that just involve having a better model than the market
doesnt that just involve having a better model than the market
Strats?
Strats?
maybe some fun MC stuff
maybe some fun MC stuff
Would add a whole new end game condition to fair value id have to work out
Would add a whole new end game condition to fair value id have to work out
we will see
we will see
Unless they release the vwap formula, i dont think id enjoy that too much. but if they do, manipulators also have access
Unless they release the vwap formula, i dont think id enjoy that too much. but if they do, manipulators also have access
i think they were talking about doing vwap of sorts
i think they were talking about doing vwap of sorts
everything past t0 where there is information it is no longer the case that manip changes nothing
everything past t0 where there is information it is no longer the case that manip changes nothing
if you were only buying at t0 it would not matter for you if it gets manipualted since im assuming it gets manipulated both ways evenly
if you were only buying at t0 it would not matter for you if it gets manipualted since im assuming it gets manipulated both ways evenly
at t = 0? sure it could be a 50/50
at t = 0? sure it could be a 50/50
if you do just want to prove it, without detecting every specifci instance just do this
if you do just want to prove it, without detecting every specifci instance just do this
I do not think it is in dispute that manipulation is both possible and has occured
I do not think it is in dispute that manipulation is both possible and has occured
he said it was hardest to manipulate, which for the most part is true
he said it was hardest to manipulate, which for the most part is true
its obvious
its obvious
how is that in dispute
how is that in dispute
proof of existence of manipulation?
proof of existence of manipulation?
maybe something like P(cross in next 5s)=f(∣distance∣,σ,volume,spread,time-of-day,final_5s), however we still have to measure the stat significance/zscore of such results to differentiate and find the R^2 impact that manipulation has on these results. Depending on how bad it is, the most we'd be able to ascertain is how much impact manipulation has on the overall bunch of reversals and not every specific instance of manipulation.
maybe something like P(cross in next 5s)=f(∣distance∣,σ,volume,spread,time-of-day,final_5s), however we still have to measure the stat significance/zscore of such results to differentiate and find the R^2 impact that manipulation has on these results. Depending on how bad it is, the most we'd be able to ascertain is how much impact manipulation has on the overall bunch of reversals and not every specific instance of manipulation.
Then take it as a learning experience
Then take it as a learning experience
sonnet/opus more than enough to bring your ideas to life, the alpha comes from your ideas not from them though
sonnet/opus more than enough to bring your ideas to life, the alpha comes from your ideas not from them though
fix your math then
fix your math then
the majority is just knowing and doing math
the majority is just knowing and doing math
you could do the exact same with with sonnet and more oversight
you could do the exact same with with sonnet and more oversight
fable 5 isnt even that great for this stuff
fable 5 isnt even that great for this stuff
hey atleast they reset usage
hey atleast they reset usage
works for me, im from canada
works for me, im from canada
I think the experience and mentality this brings, apart from the pnl, is also very beneficial
I think the experience and mentality this brings, apart from the pnl, is also very beneficial
Not many other places to apply myself until im done studying/ready for a job
Not many other places to apply myself until im done studying/ready for a job