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arbguy参与话题 16消息总数 1318

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arbguy 2026-06-18 07:03:46 Polymarket

axios

axios

arbguy 2026-06-18 07:03:18 Polymarket

he literally signed it. I agree it seemed highly unlikely when the ceremony was scheduled for friday. That doesn't make it fringe

he literally signed it. I agree it seemed highly unlikely when the ceremony was scheduled for friday. That doesn't make it fringe

arbguy 2026-06-18 07:02:26 Polymarket

overthonking, sorry bud

overthonking, sorry bud

arbguy 2026-06-18 07:02:10 Polymarket

once the signing ceremony has occured, event has concluded. Unreasonable to keep it open for a fringe case. Market was about whether trump would be the signer on US behalf not whether he'd sign some trophy copy for his officce

once the signing ceremony has occured, event has concluded. Unreasonable to keep it open for a fringe case. Market was about whether trump would be the signer on US behalf not whether he'd sign some trophy copy for his officce

arbguy 2026-06-18 07:01:15 Polymarket

yes

yes

arbguy 2026-06-18 07:01:00 Polymarket

why keep it open past the signing ceremony in case he decides to sign one himself? edge case not part of the intention of the market

why keep it open past the signing ceremony in case he decides to sign one himself? edge case not part of the intention of the market

arbguy 2026-06-18 07:00:27 Polymarket

yes, literally that's what it says

yes, literally that's what it says

arbguy 2026-06-18 07:00:09 Polymarket

once the signing ceremony happens perfectly reasonable to allow for p1.

once the signing ceremony happens perfectly reasonable to allow for p1.

arbguy 2026-06-18 06:59:34 Polymarket

overthonking this one bud

overthonking this one bud

arbguy 2026-06-18 06:58:04 Polymarket

silly reason to keep it open

silly reason to keep it open

arbguy 2026-06-18 06:57:46 Polymarket

otherwise would have to wait until july 31`

otherwise would have to wait until july 31`

arbguy 2026-06-18 06:57:37 Polymarket

to allow for an early p1

to allow for an early p1

arbguy 2026-06-18 06:56:49 Polymarket

can someone dm cheung and ask what the signed text was?

can someone dm cheung and ask what the signed text was?

arbguy 2026-06-18 03:57:49 Polymarket

yes i agree that's the argument we're having 🤝

yes i agree that's the argument we're having 🤝

arbguy 2026-06-18 03:56:09 Polymarket

and I 100% agree 3rd should not count

and I 100% agree 3rd should not count

arbguy 2026-06-18 03:55:33 Polymarket

troops is in the second

troops is in the second

arbguy 2026-06-18 03:53:53 Polymarket

MOU is literally "we agree to do some things now, we agree to do other things later if you do x, and we'll negotiate on the rest for 60 day"

MOU is literally "we agree to do some things now, we agree to do other things later if you do x, and we'll negotiate on the rest for 60 day"

arbguy 2026-06-18 03:53:13 Polymarket

Troops are a term already agreed to, it's just conditional on an agreement being signed on nuclear.

Troops are a term already agreed to, it's just conditional on an agreement being signed on nuclear.

arbguy 2026-06-18 03:50:50 Polymarket

i think it can be distilled down to "if we successfully sign a nuclear deal we will withdraw troops within 30 days"

i think it can be distilled down to "if we successfully sign a nuclear deal we will withdraw troops within 30 days"

arbguy 2026-06-18 03:49:45 Polymarket

they have the legal right to enrich

they have the legal right to enrich

arbguy 2026-06-18 03:48:01 Polymarket

look up any merger agreement, literally called "definitive agreements" which will have more conditions than you can count. They parties are still legally bound and obligated to close once conditions are met.

look up any merger agreement, literally called "definitive agreements" which will have more conditions than you can count. They parties are still legally bound and obligated to close once conditions are met.

arbguy 2026-06-18 03:46:50 Polymarket

I agree those were not conditional terms

I agree those were not conditional terms

arbguy 2026-06-18 03:45:35 Polymarket

yes your argument is that conditioinal terms are somehow not definitive which is incorrect

yes your argument is that conditioinal terms are somehow not definitive which is incorrect

arbguy 2026-06-18 03:43:19 Polymarket

No different than a simple purchase agreement. If you wire the money to escrow I'm legally obligated to sign the deed over

No different than a simple purchase agreement. If you wire the money to escrow I'm legally obligated to sign the deed over

arbguy 2026-06-18 03:42:15 Polymarket

it is definitive, "if we successfuly reach a deal on nuclear we will withdraw troops". The troops part is not part of the negotiation it's already agree to.

it is definitive, "if we successfuly reach a deal on nuclear we will withdraw troops". The troops part is not part of the negotiation it's already agree to.

arbguy 2026-06-18 03:39:31 Polymarket

tropps aren't part of the negotiation, that's already agreed to

tropps aren't part of the negotiation, that's already agreed to

arbguy 2026-06-18 03:39:08 Polymarket

I sell you my house for $1mm , conditional on you actually paying me

I sell you my house for $1mm , conditional on you actually paying me

arbguy 2026-06-18 03:38:58 Polymarket

Definitive agreement can conditional doesn't make any less definitive, they are obligating themselves to do it when conditions are met

Definitive agreement can conditional doesn't make any less definitive, they are obligating themselves to do it when conditions are met

arbguy 2026-06-18 03:36:59 Polymarket

other markets have resolved on the MOU, this is no different. all agreements have conditions

other markets have resolved on the MOU, this is no different. all agreements have conditions

arbguy 2026-06-18 03:25:54 Polymarket

have you not been paying attention?

have you not been paying attention?

arbguy 2026-06-18 03:23:55 Polymarket

definitive /= unconditional

definitive /= unconditional

arbguy 2026-06-18 03:23:01 Polymarket

the US signed that

the US signed that

arbguy 2026-06-18 03:22:53 Polymarket

withdrawal does not mean complete removal

withdrawal does not mean complete removal

**- The withdrawal of US troops from the region surrounding Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. **

**- The withdrawal of US troops from the region surrounding Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. **

literally from the rules: The United States will be considered to have agreed to withdraw troops from the region surrounding Iran if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to withdraw troops from the region surrounding Iran. **- The withdrawal of US troops from the region surrounding Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. **

literally from the rules: The United States will be considered to have agreed to withdraw troops from the region surrounding Iran if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to withdraw troops from the region surrounding Iran. **- The withdrawal of US troops from the region surrounding Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means. **

if they signed this they agreed to remove troops: Immediately upon the signing of this MOU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.

if they signed this they agreed to remove troops: Immediately upon the signing of this MOU, the United States of America will begin the removal of its naval blockade and any disturbances or impediments against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and will fully end the naval blockade within 30 days. During this period, the traffic of vessels will be in proportion to the numbers of pre-war traffic being restored by the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.

arbguy 2026-06-17 23:44:11 Polymarket

But if it’s in CNN….

But if it’s in CNN….

arbguy 2026-06-17 23:43:53 Polymarket

So don’t resolve after an affirmative statement from VPOTUS, got it

So don’t resolve after an affirmative statement from VPOTUS, got it

arbguy 2026-06-17 23:38:59 Polymarket

You think JD Vance just made it up?

You think JD Vance just made it up?

arbguy 2026-06-17 23:38:33 Polymarket

I think it was signed and will be signed again

I think it was signed and will be signed again

arbguy 2026-06-17 19:59:39 Polymarket

<@1272383282687905939> <@941405798096076880> think this one genuinly needs your help

<@1272383282687905939> <@941405798096076880> think this one genuinly needs your help

arbguy 2026-06-17 19:58:37 Polymarket

CNN is dogshit, not even close to s-tier

CNN is dogshit, not even close to s-tier

arbguy 2026-06-17 19:58:02 Polymarket

either way no consensus

either way no consensus

arbguy 2026-06-17 19:57:55 Polymarket

official sources > media leaks from anons

official sources > media leaks from anons

arbguy 2026-06-17 19:57:21 Polymarket

we'll need to wait for polygraph results

we'll need to wait for polygraph results

arbguy 2026-06-17 19:56:37 Polymarket

yea cheung confirmed, sorry 🤡

yea cheung confirmed, sorry 🤡

arbguy 2026-06-17 19:56:03 Polymarket

wh denial

wh denial

arbguy 2026-06-17 19:55:02 Polymarket

this is conflicting, and therefore the antithesis of consensus

this is conflicting, and therefore the antithesis of consensus

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