Polymarket<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> hard-working young guy who loves his work, he's committing code on weekends.
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> hard-working young guy who loves his work, he's committing code on weekends.
richlb参与话题 12消息总数 247
该用户的聊天记录定位。
聊天记录
共 247 条，显示第 101-150 条just the old colo kyc
just the old colo kyc
look like no something new
look like no something new
Less manipulation on Kalshi isn't because they use TWAP—it's because they'll actually restrict you from withdrawing your principal. <:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251>
Less manipulation on Kalshi isn't because they use TWAP—it's because they'll actually restrict you from withdrawing your principal. <:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251>
There's only one way to stop manipulation, seize the manipulators' money and scare them straight.
There's only one way to stop manipulation, seize the manipulators' money and scare them straight.
Am I going to go bankrupt because of this?
Am I going to go bankrupt because of this?
Well, if I were the manager, I wouldn't blame these people—I'd encourage them to keep at it and build out their own quality engineering practice.
Well, if I were the manager, I wouldn't blame these people—I'd encourage them to keep at it and build out their own quality engineering practice.
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> Poly's just a side hustle.
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> Poly's just a side hustle.
Experienced engineers might do it better—but a lot of the time they're in the same headspace I am now: not that fired up about work anymore. Company stuff? Not my problem. <:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251>
Experienced engineers might do it better—but a lot of the time they're in the same headspace I am now: not that fired up about work anymore. Company stuff? Not my problem. <:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251>
From LinkedIn, he's just a fresh grad—but it looks like he's owning most of the product features. Usually there's one explanation—the guy volunteered for it.
From LinkedIn, he's just a fresh grad—but it looks like he's owning most of the product features. Usually there's one explanation—the guy volunteered for it.
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> Young man, doing more means making more mistakes.
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> Young man, doing more means making more mistakes.
Feels like his output is quite a bit higher than everyone else on the team.
Feels like his output is quite a bit higher than everyone else on the team.
To be fair, Mustafa is a young man who loves his work and the company he works for. <:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251>
To be fair, Mustafa is a young man who loves his work and the company he works for. <:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251>
same last name, so i think 99% is same
same last name, so i think 99% is same
not reverse copy, but alpha: if you want to improve order execution, track your fill overlap with this guy—the higher the ratio, the better your execution<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251>
not reverse copy, but alpha: if you want to improve order execution, track your fill overlap with this guy—the higher the ratio, the better your execution<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251>
https://www.betmoar.fun/profile/0xe9076A87c5ED90eF16E6fE6529C943BAEca0CfF6?tab=activity Imagine if this guy weren't here <a:thinking:1479896605862920222>
https://www.betmoar.fun/profile/0xe9076A87c5ED90eF16E6fE6529C943BAEca0CfF6?tab=activity Imagine if this guy weren't here <a:thinking:1479896605862920222>
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> Kalshi/Poly/HYPE don't matter— infras, order/cancel latency doesn't matter either What matters is where the most degens are. Your odds of making money fighting sde, quant, exploiters, and manipulators are just too low.
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> Kalshi/Poly/HYPE don't matter— infras, order/cancel latency doesn't matter either What matters is where the most degens are. Your odds of making money fighting sde, quant, exploiters, and manipulators are just too low.
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> Combined volume across a thousand Poly markets doesn't match a single Kalshi market, funny
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> Combined volume across a thousand Poly markets doesn't match a single Kalshi market, funny
My market-type handling code on Polymarket is dozens of times what it is on Kalshi—Poly has thousands of markets, while on Kalshi you only need to care about one or two.
My market-type handling code on Polymarket is dozens of times what it is on Kalshi—Poly has thousands of markets, while on Kalshi you only need to care about one or two.
Polymarket's crypto liquidity has been left in the dust by Kalshi.
Polymarket's crypto liquidity has been left in the dust by Kalshi.
If Polymarket keeps adding markets that fragment liquidity, I'll put less effort into it.
If Polymarket keeps adding markets that fragment liquidity, I'll put less effort into it.
I'm tired—I want to focus.
I'm tired—I want to focus.
Gold/SPX market data fees are too expensive.
Gold/SPX market data fees are too expensive.
There aren't that many degens to go around.
There aren't that many degens to go around.
If the BTC issue is manipulation, just switch to TWAP.
If the BTC issue is manipulation, just switch to TWAP.
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> Honestly, I'd prefer we show some restraint on new markets and stop launching ones that fragment liquidity.
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> Honestly, I'd prefer we show some restraint on new markets and stop launching ones that fragment liquidity.
The earth is flat already.
The earth is flat already.
<a:thinking:1479896605862920222> I want to get to the bottom of it too—ideally this factor is multi-dimensional. If it's just one driver, all my bots could die on the same day.
<a:thinking:1479896605862920222> I want to get to the bottom of it too—ideally this factor is multi-dimensional. If it's just one driver, all my bots could die on the same day.
And so, with no LP incentive program and a poor maker setup, now I dont think HIP will capture meaningful share.
And so, with no LP incentive program and a poor maker setup, now I dont think HIP will capture meaningful share.
Polymarket rolled out 5m and too many kinds of crypto markets, and crypto volume ended up lagging Kalshi. ( I've complained about this many times already. <:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> )
Polymarket rolled out 5m and too many kinds of crypto markets, and crypto volume ended up lagging Kalshi. ( I've complained about this many times already. <:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> )
Looking at Kalshi, prediction market liquidity and trading volume are autocorrelated—more liquidity brings more trading, and more trading brings better liquidity.
Looking at Kalshi, prediction market liquidity and trading volume are autocorrelated—more liquidity brings more trading, and more trading brings better liquidity.
It can't match Polymarket at all.
It can't match Polymarket at all.
I'm also curious why a bot I wrote in 10 minutes can make money, while you guys seem to struggle to turn a profit. 😏 There must be some common factor behind this, which is the key to profitability
I'm also curious why a bot I wrote in 10 minutes can make money, while you guys seem to struggle to turn a profit. 😏 There must be some common factor behind this, which is the key to profitability
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> Why are all my bots, with different models and trading strategies, profitable in 5m market?
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> Why are all my bots, with different models and trading strategies, profitable in 5m market?
https://cdn.7tv.app/emote/01KNWF1TQS3A21RH6D2E0F2KFG/4x.webp
https://cdn.7tv.app/emote/01KNWF1TQS3A21RH6D2E0F2KFG/4x.webp
According to Twitter, only Chinese student + Claude can build everything—we can't.
According to Twitter, only Chinese student + Claude can build everything—we can't.
buy 99c with 97% win rate
buy 99c with 97% win rate
Yes—but sports play out continuously, and market makers pull early. In soccer, for example, they're out before a player drives into the box to shoot.
Yes—but sports play out continuously, and market makers pull early. In soccer, for example, they're out before a player drives into the box to shoot.
<a:thinking:1479896605862920222> maybe it's better to do copy trade
<a:thinking:1479896605862920222> maybe it's better to do copy trade
Toxic flow on Polymarket sports has been brutal over the past week or two—I don't know if it's temporary luck or here to stay.
Toxic flow on Polymarket sports has been brutal over the past week or two—I don't know if it's temporary luck or here to stay.
The accounts that are profitable make most of their money from in-game take and wide-spread making.
The accounts that are profitable make most of their money from in-game take and wide-spread making.
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> I don't see many MMs making money in pre-match markets.
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> I don't see many MMs making money in pre-match markets.
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> A 1c spread and maker rebates can't cover toxic-flow losses— while traditional bookmakers run 10c spreads and will ban your account if you are toxic
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> A 1c spread and maker rebates can't cover toxic-flow losses— while traditional bookmakers run 10c spreads and will ban your account if you are toxic
I think sports market makers on prediction markets won't be able to keep this up much longer. <:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> As prediction markets draw more attention, toxic flow has been flooding in
I think sports market makers on prediction markets won't be able to keep this up much longer. <:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> As prediction markets draw more attention, toxic flow has been flooding in
https://x.com/InGameHQ/status/2065206002950025703
https://x.com/InGameHQ/status/2065206002950025703
I lost 100k in sport those day
I lost 100k in sport those day
sport?
sport?
100，0，0，0
100，0，0，0
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> Are we back to last year?
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> Are we back to last year?
It's 2026/6/12
It's 2026/6/12