Polymarket<a:thinking:1479896605862920222>Probably just 50/50 on Kalshi—definitely not manipulation since it's 60s twap + 15min + KYC
<a:thinking:1479896605862920222>Probably just 50/50 on Kalshi—definitely not manipulation since it's 60s twap + 15min + KYC
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共 247 条，显示第 1-50 条Or we might as well just kill the 5m markets.
Or we might as well just kill the 5m markets.
I don't think 30s TWAP makes manipulation any harder—wait and see. Bro J will keep flipping market after market, and then we'll bump TWAP to 300s.
I don't think 30s TWAP makes manipulation any harder—wait and see. Bro J will keep flipping market after market, and then we'll bump TWAP to 300s.
1. start 5-10 seconds before market end and keep price for 10 seconds 2. after 30s TWAP they start 30s before market end and keep price for 15 seconds Can a 30s TWAP actually fix manipulation? <a:thinking:1479896605862920222>
1. start 5-10 seconds before market end and keep price for 10 seconds 2. after 30s TWAP they start 30s before market end and keep price for 15 seconds Can a 30s TWAP actually fix manipulation? <a:thinking:1479896605862920222>
Ban their accounts, freeze their assets, require proof of income and KYC—just like Kalshi.
Ban their accounts, freeze their assets, require proof of income and KYC—just like Kalshi.
In low-vol periods, nobody in the market is going to move your price.
In low-vol periods, nobody in the market is going to move your price.
No difference—getting picked off only comes from opponents, not the market.
No difference—getting picked off only comes from opponents, not the market.
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> I didn't see anything changed for them
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> I didn't see anything changed for them
after 30s TWAP thety start 30s before marke end and keep price for 15 seconds
after 30s TWAP thety start 30s before marke end and keep price for 15 seconds
now they start 5-10 seconds before market end and keep price for 10 seconds
now they start 5-10 seconds before market end and keep price for 10 seconds
just flip after TWAP window start and keep price for a while, nothing's changed.
just flip after TWAP window start and keep price for a while, nothing's changed.
This shows a 30-second TWAP doesn't fix anything—especially since the effective time of TWAP is even smaller. Even one minute TWAP doesn't solve it imo.
This shows a 30-second TWAP doesn't fix anything—especially since the effective time of TWAP is even smaller. Even one minute TWAP doesn't solve it imo.
Reversals used to hit around 30–45 seconds before market close. Now they got good at it, so they pushed it later(it's automated now, it used to be manual.)
Reversals used to hit around 30–45 seconds before market close. Now they got good at it, so they pushed it later(it's automated now, it used to be manual.)
The data he picked might only cover the last month or two—because before three months ago, the "safety time" in my code was remaining time < 20 (now it's < 0<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> ).
The data he picked might only cover the last month or two—because before three months ago, the "safety time" in my code was remaining time < 20 (now it's < 0<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> ).
If TWAP isn't one minute or longer, I don't see much point in it. <a:thinking:1479896605862920222>
If TWAP isn't one minute or longer, I don't see much point in it. <a:thinking:1479896605862920222>
Have we tracked when manipulation happens within the 5-minute cycle? Let's use data—pull the timing of flip reversals over the past six months.
Have we tracked when manipulation happens within the 5-minute cycle? Let's use data—pull the timing of flip reversals over the past six months.
300 seconds twap for 5min market is good
300 seconds twap for 5min market is good
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251>
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251>
So how big a TWAP are we planning for the 5m markets?
So how big a TWAP are we planning for the 5m markets?
<:pepecry:1480174599093096560> who is limbreaper, why is he so rich
<:pepecry:1480174599093096560> who is limbreaper, why is he so rich
Just an example—I mean large market makers.
Just an example—I mean large market makers.
Even if TWAP block the small-fry manipulators, so what—you think Jane Street, SIG, and Jump Trading won't manipulate markets? They will—and they're probably already doing it.
Even if TWAP block the small-fry manipulators, so what—you think Jane Street, SIG, and Jump Trading won't manipulate markets? They will—and they're probably already doing it.
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> But that's the fate of this market—5m markets are built for manipulators.
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> But that's the fate of this market—5m markets are built for manipulators.
Yeah—I feel like almost every wallet you can see isn't that profitable.
Yeah—I feel like almost every wallet you can see isn't that profitable.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/722273367012409415/1512278140402012292/rich_cat_on_mushroom.gif
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/722273367012409415/1512278140402012292/rich_cat_on_mushroom.gif
They turned my alpha into something anyone can access (counterparties).<:pepecry:1480174599093096560>
They turned my alpha into something anyone can access (counterparties).<:pepecry:1480174599093096560>
oh, the best one is 10:1 for pnl:fee
oh, the best one is 10:1 for pnl:fee
<a:thinking:1479896605862920222>
<a:thinking:1479896605862920222>
My taker's PnL is at least 2:1 relative to fees.
My taker's PnL is at least 2:1 relative to fees.
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251>
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251>
These takers look like they’re just giving money to Polymarket.
These takers look like they’re just giving money to Polymarket.
Looks like it’s not making money.
Looks like it’s not making money.
<:coachlook:944658505032400896> Don’t push me.
<:coachlook:944658505032400896> Don’t push me.
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> Proxies are too slow for this
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> Proxies are too slow for this
If Polymarket doesn’t fix the rate limit issue, I’ll use my 1,000-IP army to destroy Polymarket. I just think doing that is too stupid right now, so I don’t want to do it, but it really pisses me off seeing other people make money from this. <:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251>
If Polymarket doesn’t fix the rate limit issue, I’ll use my 1,000-IP army to destroy Polymarket. I just think doing that is too stupid right now, so I don’t want to do it, but it really pisses me off seeing other people make money from this. <:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251>
I just think minimum order interval becomes larger, people won’t abuse it as much, which would significantly reduce server load. But ladder orders like 2,500 orders also put a lot of pressure on the server. I think those may need to be limited as well. <:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251>
I just think minimum order interval becomes larger, people won’t abuse it as much, which would significantly reduce server load. But ladder orders like 2,500 orders also put a lot of pressure on the server. I think those may need to be limited as well. <:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251>
15 * 50 / s = 750 /s * per-market, i think it's ok
15 * 50 / s = 750 /s * per-market, i think it's ok
Laddering resting orders can use the batch orders endpoint. What I mean is limiting the POST frequency, not the actual number of orders. Also From my experience, Polymarket’s server can’t really handle a large number of orders either. If you POST 80 orders at once, it may take several seconds to return.
Laddering resting orders can use the batch orders endpoint. What I mean is limiting the POST frequency, not the actual number of orders. Also From my experience, Polymarket’s server can’t really handle a large number of orders either. If you POST 80 orders at once, it may take several seconds to return.
20ms is a critical threshold. Once you allow order intervals below that level, people will abuse it. <:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251>
20ms is a critical threshold. Once you allow order intervals below that level, people will abuse it. <:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251>
Only spammers need an order rate limit above 50. <:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251>
Only spammers need an order rate limit above 50. <:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251>
As long as the place rate limit is per-market, that should be fine. I don’t think any strategy really needs an order limit higher than 50/s.
As long as the place rate limit is per-market, that should be fine. I don’t think any strategy really needs an order limit higher than 50/s.
just wait for resolve, it's 4-3
just wait for resolve, it's 4-3
<@624575779023355904> minimum expiration not changed?<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251>
<@624575779023355904> minimum expiration not changed?<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251>
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> Also, if you take an order from a manipulator, that's adverse selection too.
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> Also, if you take an order from a manipulator, that's adverse selection too.
If the taker order doesn't get filled, it becomes a maker order.
If the taker order doesn't get filled, it becomes a maker order.
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> Not sure, as long as it's profitable overall, that's all that matters.
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251> Not sure, as long as it's profitable overall, that's all that matters.
yes
yes
25%
25%
I heard It’s been manipulated many times already, so the market maker(sig), has reduced liquidity.
I heard It’s been manipulated many times already, so the market maker(sig), has reduced liquidity.
Bone might have lent his account to someone else in the sports/political market for better take rabte.
Bone might have lent his account to someone else in the sports/political market for better take rabte.
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