聊天记录
共 26 条，显示第 1-26 条
Market Title: Will the global average temperature in 2026 be the hottest calendar year on record?
Outcomes: YES / NO
Market Description: This market resolves to "YES" if the global average temperature for the full calendar year of 2026 is officially declared by NOAA or WMO to be the highest since historical records began, surpassing the previous record holder. If it ties or stays below, it resolves to "NO".
Proposed Resolution Criteria: Official publication of the 2026 Annual Global Climate Report.
Resolution Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) or World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
Market Title: Will the global average temperature in 2026 be the hottest calendar year on record?
Outcomes: YES / NO
Market Description: This market resolves to "YES" if the global average temperature for the full calendar year of 2026 is officially declared by NOAA or WMO to be the highest since historical records began, surpassing the previous record holder. If it ties or stays below, it resolves to "NO".
Proposed Resolution Criteria: Official publication of the 2026 Annual Global Climate Report.
Resolution Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) or World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
Market Title: Will the EU Issue its First Major Fine Under the AI Act Before December 31, 2026?
Result: Yes/No
Market Explanation: This market's decision is "Yes" if the EU (or its authorized member state regulators) formally issues a fine to any company that violates the EU's AI Act between January 1 and December 31, 2026. The decision is "No" if no fine is issued before the deadline.
Proposed Decision Criteria: Formal publication of the enforcement decision and fine amount by the European Commission or the European Data Protection Board (EDPB).
Decision Source: Official press release from the European Commission (ec.europa.eu) or an official statement from the European Data Protection Board (edpb.europa.eu).
Market Title: Will the EU Issue its First Major Fine Under the AI Act Before December 31, 2026?
Result: Yes/No
Market Explanation: This market's decision is "Yes" if the EU (or its authorized member state regulators) formally issues a fine to any company that violates the EU's AI Act between January 1 and December 31, 2026. The decision is "No" if no fine is issued before the deadline.
Proposed Decision Criteria: Formal publication of the enforcement decision and fine amount by the European Commission or the European Data Protection Board (EDPB).
Decision Source: Official press release from the European Commission (ec.europa.eu) or an official statement from the European Data Protection Board (edpb.europa.eu).
Market Title: What will be the lowest temperature in Johannesburg, South Africa on June 17, 2026?
Result: Yes: 6°C. No: Not 6°C.
Market Description: This market forecasts the lowest (nighttime) temperature for winter in Johannesburg on June 17, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Standard: This market will resolve to the range of lowest temperatures (in degrees Celsius) recorded at Oliver Tambo International Airport (FAOR) on June 17, 2026.
Resolution Source: This market's resolution source is information provided by the Wunderground website, specifically the lowest temperatures recorded at Oliver Tambo International Airport for all times of the day. Information for Tambo International Airport will be finalized once determined.
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and then switch between °F and °C in the Temperature settings.
This market cannot be deemed valid until all data for the day is finalized.
This market's resolution source measures temperature in degrees Celsius (e.g., 6°C). Therefore, this is the level of precision that will be used when determining the market.
Any temperature revisions recorded after the data for this market period has been finalized will not be considered.
Market Title: What will be the lowest temperature in Johannesburg, South Africa on June 17, 2026?
Result: Yes: 6°C. No: Not 6°C.
Market Description: This market forecasts the lowest (nighttime) temperature for winter in Johannesburg on June 17, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Standard: This market will resolve to the range of lowest temperatures (in degrees Celsius) recorded at Oliver Tambo International Airport (FAOR) on June 17, 2026.
Resolution Source: This market's resolution source is information provided by the Wunderground website, specifically the lowest temperatures recorded at Oliver Tambo International Airport for all times of the day. Information for Tambo International Airport will be finalized once determined.
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and then switch between °F and °C in the Temperature settings.
This market cannot be deemed valid until all data for the day is finalized.
This market's resolution source measures temperature in degrees Celsius (e.g., 6°C). Therefore, this is the level of precision that will be used when determining the market.
Any temperature revisions recorded after the data for this market period has been finalized will not be considered.
Market Title Will Neuralink or a similar brain-computer interface receive FDA approval for medical use by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if any brain-computer interface device receives FDA approval for a medical indication by the end of 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Official FDA approval.
Resolution Source FDA.gov, Neuralink, Synchron announcements.
Market Title Will Neuralink or a similar brain-computer interface receive FDA approval for medical use by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if any brain-computer interface device receives FDA approval for a medical indication by the end of 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Official FDA approval.
Resolution Source FDA.gov, Neuralink, Synchron announcements.
Market Title: What will be the highest temperature in Singapore on June 15, 2026?
Result: Yes: The temperature is 31 degrees Celsius. No: The temperature is not 31 degrees Celsius.
Market Description: This market forecasts the highest (daytime) temperature in Singapore on June 15, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Standard: This market will resolve to a temperature range that includes the highest temperature (degrees Celsius) recorded at Changi International Airport (SIN) on June 15, 2026.
Resolution Source: The resolution source for this market will be Wunderground, specifically the highest temperatures recorded at all times of the day by the Changi International Airport weather station (subject to final data confirmation).
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, please click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the temperature setting from °F to °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for the day is finalized.
The data source for this market measures temperature in degrees Celsius (e.g., 31°C). Therefore, this market's data resolution will use this level of precision. Any temperature corrections recorded after the data for this market period is finalized will not be considered.
Market Title: What will be the highest temperature in Singapore on June 15, 2026?
Result: Yes: The temperature is 31 degrees Celsius. No: The temperature is not 31 degrees Celsius.
Market Description: This market forecasts the highest (daytime) temperature in Singapore on June 15, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Standard: This market will resolve to a temperature range that includes the highest temperature (degrees Celsius) recorded at Changi International Airport (SIN) on June 15, 2026.
Resolution Source: The resolution source for this market will be Wunderground, specifically the highest temperatures recorded at all times of the day by the Changi International Airport weather station (subject to final data confirmation).
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, please click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the temperature setting from °F to °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for the day is finalized.
The data source for this market measures temperature in degrees Celsius (e.g., 31°C). Therefore, this market's data resolution will use this level of precision. Any temperature corrections recorded after the data for this market period is finalized will not be considered.
Market Title: Highest temperature in New York, USA on June 20, 2026?
Outcomes: YES: The temperature is 30°C. NO: The temperature is not 30°C.
Market Description: This market predicts the highest (daytime/maximum) temperature for New York City on June 20, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) in degrees Celsius on June 20, 2026.
Resolution Source: The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the John F.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 30°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Title: Highest temperature in New York, USA on June 20, 2026?
Outcomes: YES: The temperature is 30°C. NO: The temperature is not 30°C.
Market Description: This market predicts the highest (daytime/maximum) temperature for New York City on June 20, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK) in degrees Celsius on June 20, 2026.
Resolution Source: The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the John F.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 30°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Title
Will dementia cases worldwide exceed 60 million by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the total number of people living with dementia globally exceeds 60 million according to official estimates.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
WHO or Alzheimer’s Disease International report.
Resolution Source
World Health Organization, Alzheimer’s Disease International.
Market Title
Will dementia cases worldwide exceed 60 million by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the total number of people living with dementia globally exceeds 60 million according to official estimates.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
WHO or Alzheimer’s Disease International report.
Resolution Source
World Health Organization, Alzheimer’s Disease International.
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil – Highest Temperature
Market Title Highest temperature in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on June 13, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 23°C. NO: The temperature is not 23°C.
Market Description This market predicts the highest (daytime) temperature for Rio de Janeiro on June 13, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at Galeão International Airport (GIG) in degrees Celsius on June 13, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Galeão Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/rio-de-janeiro/GIG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 23°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil – Highest Temperature
Market Title Highest temperature in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on June 13, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 23°C. NO: The temperature is not 23°C.
Market Description This market predicts the highest (daytime) temperature for Rio de Janeiro on June 13, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at Galeão International Airport (GIG) in degrees Celsius on June 13, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Galeão Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/rio-de-janeiro/GIG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 23°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
New York, USA – Highest Temperature
Market Title Highest temperature in New York, USA on June 12, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 24°C. NO: The temperature is not 24°C.
Market Description This market predicts the highest (daytime) temperature for New York on June 12, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at JFK International Airport (JFK) in degrees Celsius on June 12, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the JFK Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york/JFK
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 24°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
New York, USA – Highest Temperature
Market Title Highest temperature in New York, USA on June 12, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 24°C. NO: The temperature is not 24°C.
Market Description This market predicts the highest (daytime) temperature for New York on June 12, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at JFK International Airport (JFK) in degrees Celsius on June 12, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the JFK Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york/JFK
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 24°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Beijing, China – Highest Temperature
Market Title Highest temperature in Beijing, China on June 11, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 32°C. NO: The temperature is not 32°C.
Market Description This market predicts the highest temperature for Beijing on June 11, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport (PEK) in degrees Celsius on June 11,, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/PEK
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 32°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Beijing, China – Highest Temperature
Market Title Highest temperature in Beijing, China on June 11, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 32°C. NO: The temperature is not 32°C.
Market Description This market predicts the highest temperature for Beijing on June 11, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport (PEK) in degrees Celsius on June 11,, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/PEK
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 32°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
New York, USA – Precipitation
Market Title Will it rain in New York, USA on June 12, 2026?
Outcomes YES: There is measurable precipitation (≥0.1 mm). NO: There is no measurable precipitation.
Market Description This market predicts whether measurable rain falls in New York on June 12, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve Yes if any precipitation (≥0.1 mm) is recorded at JFK International Airport (JFK) on June 12, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the daily precipitation recorded for the JFK Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york/JFK
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
Any revisions to data recorded after finalization will not be considered for this market's resolution.
New York, USA – Precipitation
Market Title Will it rain in New York, USA on June 12, 2026?
Outcomes YES: There is measurable precipitation (≥0.1 mm). NO: There is no measurable precipitation.
Market Description This market predicts whether measurable rain falls in New York on June 12, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve Yes if any precipitation (≥0.1 mm) is recorded at JFK International Airport (JFK) on June 12, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the daily precipitation recorded for the JFK Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york/JFK
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
Any revisions to data recorded after finalization will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Beijing, China – Air Quality
Market Title Will the Air Quality Index (AQI) in Beijing be below 100 on June 11, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The AQI is below 100 (Good to Moderate). NO: The AQI is 100 or above.
Market Description This market predicts whether Beijing’s air quality stays in the Good-to-Moderate range (AQI below 100) on June 11, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve Yes if the official daily AQI for Beijing on June 11, 2026 is below 100.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be official Chinese environmental monitoring data or widely accepted sources such as IQAir or Wunderground air quality readings for Beijing, available here: https://www.iqair.com/beijing or Wunderground Beijing station data.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
Any revisions to data recorded after finalization will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Beijing, China – Air Quality
Market Title Will the Air Quality Index (AQI) in Beijing be below 100 on June 11, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The AQI is below 100 (Good to Moderate). NO: The AQI is 100 or above.
Market Description This market predicts whether Beijing’s air quality stays in the Good-to-Moderate range (AQI below 100) on June 11, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve Yes if the official daily AQI for Beijing on June 11, 2026 is below 100.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be official Chinese environmental monitoring data or widely accepted sources such as IQAir or Wunderground air quality readings for Beijing, available here: https://www.iqair.com/beijing or Wunderground Beijing station data.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
Any revisions to data recorded after finalization will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Moscow, Russia – Lowest Temperature
Market Title Lowest temperature in Moscow, Russia on June 10, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 15°C. NO: The temperature is not 15°C.
Market Description This market predicts the lowest (overnight/lowest) temperature for Moscow on June 10, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at Sheremetyevo International Airport (SVO) in degrees Celsius on June 10, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sheremetyevo Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ru/moscow/SVO
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 15°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Moscow, Russia – Lowest Temperature
Market Title Lowest temperature in Moscow, Russia on June 10, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 15°C. NO: The temperature is not 15°C.
Market Description This market predicts the lowest (overnight/lowest) temperature for Moscow on June 10, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at Sheremetyevo International Airport (SVO) in degrees Celsius on June 10, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sheremetyevo Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ru/moscow/SVO
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 15°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Tokyo, Japan – Lowest Temperature
Market Title Lowest temperature in Tokyo, Japan onJune 9, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 19°C. NO: The temperature is not 19°C.
Market Description This market predicts the lowest (overnight/lowest) temperature for Tokyo on June 9, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at Haneda Airport (HND) in degrees Celsius on June 9, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Haneda Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/HND
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 19°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Tokyo, Japan – Lowest Temperature
Market Title Lowest temperature in Tokyo, Japan onJune 9, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 19°C. NO: The temperature is not 19°C.
Market Description This market predicts the lowest (overnight/lowest) temperature for Tokyo on June 9, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at Haneda Airport (HND) in degrees Celsius on June 9, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Haneda Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/HND
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 19°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Title
Will the US pass comprehensive federal AI regulation by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the United States Congress passes and the President signs comprehensive national AI legislation by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Bill becomes law.
Resolution Source
Congress.gov or White House official records.
Market Title
Will the US pass comprehensive federal AI regulation by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the United States Congress passes and the President signs comprehensive national AI legislation by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Bill becomes law.
Resolution Source
Congress.gov or White House official records.
Market Title
Will Google DeepMind release a new Gemini model more powerful than GPT-4 by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Google releases a Gemini model that outperforms GPT-4 on major benchmarks by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Independent benchmark comparisons.
Resolution Source
Google DeepMind announcements and LMSYS Arena.
Market Title
Will Google DeepMind release a new Gemini model more powerful than GPT-4 by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Google releases a Gemini model that outperforms GPT-4 on major benchmarks by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Independent benchmark comparisons.
Resolution Source
Google DeepMind announcements and LMSYS Arena.
Market Title
Will AI achieve breakthrough in nuclear fusion control by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if AI systems make a major contribution to achieving sustained nuclear fusion reaction control.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Scientific consensus and peer-reviewed publication.
Resolution Source
Nature, Science, or ITER organization reports.
Market Title
Will AI achieve breakthrough in nuclear fusion control by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if AI systems make a major contribution to achieving sustained nuclear fusion reaction control.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Scientific consensus and peer-reviewed publication.
Resolution Source
Nature, Science, or ITER organization reports.
Beijing, China – Highest Temperature
Market Title Highest temperature in Beijing, China on June 7, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 26.5°C. NO: The temperature is not 26.5°C.
Market Description This market predicts the highest temperature for Beijing on June 7,, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport (PEK) in degrees Celsius on June 7,, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/PEK
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 28°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Beijing, China – Highest Temperature
Market Title Highest temperature in Beijing, China on June 7, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 26.5°C. NO: The temperature is not 26.5°C.
Market Description This market predicts the highest temperature for Beijing on June 7,, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport (PEK) in degrees Celsius on June 7,, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/PEK
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 28°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Title
Will a quantum-AI hybrid system be demonstrated by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a functional quantum computing system integrated with large language models shows practical advantage.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Peer-reviewed demonstration by IBM, Google, or similar.
Resolution Source
Scientific journals or company technical reports.
Market Title
Will a quantum-AI hybrid system be demonstrated by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a functional quantum computing system integrated with large language models shows practical advantage.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Peer-reviewed demonstration by IBM, Google, or similar.
Resolution Source
Scientific journals or company technical reports.
Market Title
Will AI discover a new antibiotic by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if AI systems lead to the discovery and validation of a new effective antibiotic.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Peer-reviewed publication and clinical trial progress.
Resolution Source
Nature Medicine or WHO reports.
Market Title
Will AI discover a new antibiotic by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if AI systems lead to the discovery and validation of a new effective antibiotic.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Peer-reviewed publication and clinical trial progress.
Resolution Source
Nature Medicine or WHO reports.
Market Title
Will Ethereum price exceed $6,000 by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Ethereum's daily closing price reaches or exceeds $6,000 on any major exchange in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Verified daily close above $6,000.
Resolution Source
CoinGecko or Binance/Coinbase data.
Market Title
Will Ethereum price exceed $6,000 by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Ethereum's daily closing price reaches or exceeds $6,000 on any major exchange in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Verified daily close above $6,000.
Resolution Source
CoinGecko or Binance/Coinbase data.
Market Title
Will global AI investment exceed 500 billion USD in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if total global investment in AI companies and projects exceeds 500 billion US dollars during the year 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Cumulative investment data.
Resolution Source
Stanford AI Index or CB Insights reports.
Market Title
Will global AI investment exceed 500 billion USD in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if total global investment in AI companies and projects exceeds 500 billion US dollars during the year 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Cumulative investment data.
Resolution Source
Stanford AI Index or CB Insights reports.
Market Title
Will Lionel Messi score 10 or more goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Lionel Messi scores 10 or more official goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Proposed Resolution
Criteria FIFA official goal tally.
Resolution Source
FIFA World Cup statistics, ESPN, Opta.
Market Title
Will Lionel Messi score 10 or more goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Lionel Messi scores 10 or more official goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Proposed Resolution
Criteria FIFA official goal tally.
Resolution Source
FIFA World Cup statistics, ESPN, Opta.
Market Title
Will Novak Djokovic win a Grand Slam title in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Novak Djokovic wins any of the four Grand Slam tournaments (Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon, US Open) in 2026.
Proposed Resolution
Criteria Official tournament results.
Resolution Source
ATP Tour, ITF, Grand Slam official websites.
Market Title
Will Novak Djokovic win a Grand Slam title in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Novak Djokovic wins any of the four Grand Slam tournaments (Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon, US Open) in 2026.
Proposed Resolution
Criteria Official tournament results.
Resolution Source
ATP Tour, ITF, Grand Slam official websites.
Market Title Will the US announce a strategic Bitcoin reserve by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if the U.S. government officially announces or legislates a strategic Bitcoin reserve in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Official White House or Congress announcement.
Resolution Source Reuters, Bloomberg, official government releases.
Market Title Will the US announce a strategic Bitcoin reserve by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if the U.S. government officially announces or legislates a strategic Bitcoin reserve in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Official White House or Congress announcement.
Resolution Source Reuters, Bloomberg, official government releases.
Market Title Will there be over $1 billion in crypto liquidations in a single day in 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if total crypto liquidations exceed $1 billion in any 24-hour period in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Single day record.
Resolution Source Coinglass or Binance liquidation data.
Market Title Will there be over $1 billion in crypto liquidations in a single day in 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if total crypto liquidations exceed $1 billion in any 24-hour period in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Single day record.
Resolution Source Coinglass or Binance liquidation data.
Polymarket