聊天记录
共 24 条，显示第 1-24 条
7.Market Title
Will the WHO declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the World Health Organization declares a new PHEIC (Public Health Emergency of International Concern) between January 1 and December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official WHO declaration.
Resolution Source
WHO.int official statements.
7.Market Title
Will the WHO declare a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the World Health Organization declares a new PHEIC (Public Health Emergency of International Concern) between January 1 and December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official WHO declaration.
Resolution Source
WHO.int official statements.
Market Title: Maximum Gust Wind Speed in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on June 17, 2026?
Result: Yes: Maximum gust wind speed reaches or exceeds 35 km/h. No: Maximum gust wind speed is below 35 km/h.
Market Description: This market predicts whether maximum gust wind speeds of 35 km/h or higher will be recorded in Rio de Janeiro on June 17, 2026.
Proposed Decision Criteria: If a maximum gust wind speed of 35 km/h or higher is recorded at Galeão Antonio Carlos Jobin International Airport (SBGL) on June 17, 2026, this market's decision is "Yes". If no gust wind speed is recorded or the gust wind speed is below 35 km/h, the decision is "No".
Source of Analysis: The analysis source for this market will be Wunderground, specifically the maximum gust speeds recorded in the historical data section of the Galeão-Antonio Carlos Robin International Airport station (subject to final data confirmation).
To ensure correct units, please click the gear icon next to the search bar and confirm that the wind speed setting is set to kilometers per hour (km/h).
This market will only be analyzed as "Yes" after all data for the day is finalized.
The analysis source for this market measures wind speed in kilometers per hour. Therefore, this market analysis will use this level of accuracy.
Any revisions to wind speed data recorded after the finalization of data for this market period will not be considered.
Market Title: Maximum Gust Wind Speed in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on June 17, 2026?
Result: Yes: Maximum gust wind speed reaches or exceeds 35 km/h. No: Maximum gust wind speed is below 35 km/h.
Market Description: This market predicts whether maximum gust wind speeds of 35 km/h or higher will be recorded in Rio de Janeiro on June 17, 2026.
Proposed Decision Criteria: If a maximum gust wind speed of 35 km/h or higher is recorded at Galeão Antonio Carlos Jobin International Airport (SBGL) on June 17, 2026, this market's decision is "Yes". If no gust wind speed is recorded or the gust wind speed is below 35 km/h, the decision is "No".
Source of Analysis: The analysis source for this market will be Wunderground, specifically the maximum gust speeds recorded in the historical data section of the Galeão-Antonio Carlos Robin International Airport station (subject to final data confirmation).
To ensure correct units, please click the gear icon next to the search bar and confirm that the wind speed setting is set to kilometers per hour (km/h).
This market will only be analyzed as "Yes" after all data for the day is finalized.
The analysis source for this market measures wind speed in kilometers per hour. Therefore, this market analysis will use this level of accuracy.
Any revisions to wind speed data recorded after the finalization of data for this market period will not be considered.
Market Title
Will the number of new cancer cases worldwide exceed 21 million in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the estimated number of new cancer cases globally in 2026 exceeds 21 million according to official projections or data.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
WHO or IARC official report.
Resolution Source
International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), WHO.
Market Title
Will the number of new cancer cases worldwide exceed 21 million in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the estimated number of new cancer cases globally in 2026 exceeds 21 million according to official projections or data.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
WHO or IARC official report.
Resolution Source
International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), WHO.
Market Title: What will be the highest temperature in London, UK on June 15, 2026?
Result: Yes: The temperature is 20°C. No: The temperature is not 20°C.
Market Description: This market forecasts the highest (daytime) temperature in London on June 15, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Standard: This market will resolve to a temperature range that includes the highest Celsius temperature recorded at Heathrow Airport (LHR) on June 15, 2026.
Resolution Source: The resolution source for this market will be Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded by the Heathrow Airport weather station on that day (subject to final data confirmation).
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the temperature setting from °F to °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for the day is finalized.
The data source for this market measures temperature in Celsius (e.g., 20°C). Therefore, this market's data resolution will use this level of precision.
Any temperature corrections recorded after the data for this market period is finalized will not be considered.
Market Title: What will be the highest temperature in London, UK on June 15, 2026?
Result: Yes: The temperature is 20°C. No: The temperature is not 20°C.
Market Description: This market forecasts the highest (daytime) temperature in London on June 15, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Standard: This market will resolve to a temperature range that includes the highest Celsius temperature recorded at Heathrow Airport (LHR) on June 15, 2026.
Resolution Source: The resolution source for this market will be Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded by the Heathrow Airport weather station on that day (subject to final data confirmation).
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the temperature setting from °F to °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for the day is finalized.
The data source for this market measures temperature in Celsius (e.g., 20°C). Therefore, this market's data resolution will use this level of precision.
Any temperature corrections recorded after the data for this market period is finalized will not be considered.
Market Title: Lowest temperature in London, UK on June 25, 2026?
Outcomes: YES: The temperature is 14°C. NO: The temperature is not 14°C.
Market Description: This market predicts the lowest (overnight/lowest) temperature for London on June 25, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at Heathrow Airport (LHR) in degrees Celsius on June 25, 2026.
Resolution Source: The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the (https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLL)
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 14°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Title: Lowest temperature in London, UK on June 25, 2026?
Outcomes: YES: The temperature is 14°C. NO: The temperature is not 14°C.
Market Description: This market predicts the lowest (overnight/lowest) temperature for London on June 25, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at Heathrow Airport (LHR) in degrees Celsius on June 25, 2026.
Resolution Source: The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the (https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLL)
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 14°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Title
Will average global human lifespan increase by at least 0.5 years between 2025 and 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if official statistics show global life expectancy at birth increases by 0.5 years or more from 2025 to 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria UN or WHO comparative data.
Resolution Source United Nations Population Division, WHO.
Market Title
Will average global human lifespan increase by at least 0.5 years between 2025 and 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if official statistics show global life expectancy at birth increases by 0.5 years or more from 2025 to 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria UN or WHO comparative data.
Resolution Source United Nations Population Division, WHO.
Market Title
Will a wearable device receive FDA approval for continuous non-invasive blood glucose monitoring by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the FDA approves a wearable device capable of continuously monitoring blood glucose without finger pricks.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official FDA clearance or approval.
Resolution Source
FDA.gov, Dexcom, Abbott, Apple announcements.
Market Title
Will a wearable device receive FDA approval for continuous non-invasive blood glucose monitoring by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the FDA approves a wearable device capable of continuously monitoring blood glucose without finger pricks.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official FDA clearance or approval.
Resolution Source
FDA.gov, Dexcom, Abbott, Apple announcements.
Market Title Lowest temperature in Tokyo, Japan on June 12, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 18°C. NO: The temperature is not 18°C.
Market Description This market predicts the lowest (overnight/lowest) temperature for Tokyo on June 12, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at Haneda Airport (HND) in degrees Celsius on June 12, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Haneda Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/HND
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 18°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Title Lowest temperature in Tokyo, Japan on June 12, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 18°C. NO: The temperature is not 18°C.
Market Description This market predicts the lowest (overnight/lowest) temperature for Tokyo on June 12, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at Haneda Airport (HND) in degrees Celsius on June 12, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Haneda Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/HND
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 18°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Sydney, Australia – Lowest Temperature
Market Title Lowest temperature in Sydney, Australia on June 12, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 2°C. NO: The temperature is not 2°C.
Market Description This market predicts the lowest temperature for Sydney onJune 12, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at Kingsford Smith Airport (SYD) in degrees Celsius on June 12, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Kingsford Smith Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/au/sydney/SYD
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 2°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Sydney, Australia – Lowest Temperature
Market Title Lowest temperature in Sydney, Australia on June 12, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 2°C. NO: The temperature is not 2°C.
Market Description This market predicts the lowest temperature for Sydney onJune 12, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at Kingsford Smith Airport (SYD) in degrees Celsius on June 12, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Kingsford Smith Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/au/sydney/SYD
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 2°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Tokyo, Japan – Average Humidity
Market Title Average humidity in Tokyo, Japan on June 12, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The average humidity is 73%. NO: The average humidity is not 73%.
Market Description This market predicts the daily average relative humidity for Tokyo on June 12, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the average humidity value recorded at Haneda Airport (HND) on June 12, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground for Haneda Airport (HND), available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/HND
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
Tokyo, Japan – Average Humidity
Market Title Average humidity in Tokyo, Japan on June 12, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The average humidity is 73%. NO: The average humidity is not 73%.
Market Description This market predicts the daily average relative humidity for Tokyo on June 12, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the average humidity value recorded at Haneda Airport (HND) on June 12, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground for Haneda Airport (HND), available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/HND
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
Sydney, Australia – Highest Temperature
Market Title Highest temperature in Sydney, Australia on June 11, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 21°C. NO: The temperature is not 21°C.
Market Description This market predicts the highest (daytime) temperature for Sydney on June 11, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at Kingsford Smith Airport (SYD) in degrees Celsius on June 11, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Kingsford Smith Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/au/sydney/SYD
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 21°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Sydney, Australia – Highest Temperature
Market Title Highest temperature in Sydney, Australia on June 11, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 21°C. NO: The temperature is not 21°C.
Market Description This market predicts the highest (daytime) temperature for Sydney on June 11, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at Kingsford Smith Airport (SYD) in degrees Celsius on June 11, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Kingsford Smith Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/au/sydney/SYD
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 21°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Dubai, UAE – Highest Temperature
Market Title Highest temperature in Dubai, UAE on June 9, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 40°C. NO: The temperature is not 40°C.
Market Description This market predicts the highest (daytime) temperature for Dubai on June 9, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at Dubai International Airport (DXB) in degrees Celsius on June 9, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dubai Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ae/dubai/DXB
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 40°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Dubai, UAE – Highest Temperature
Market Title Highest temperature in Dubai, UAE on June 9, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 40°C. NO: The temperature is not 40°C.
Market Description This market predicts the highest (daytime) temperature for Dubai on June 9, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at Dubai International Airport (DXB) in degrees Celsius on June 9, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dubai Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ae/dubai/DXB
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 40°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Suzhou, China – Lowest Temperature
Market Title Lowest temperature in Suzhou, China on June 9, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 17°C. NO: The temperature is not 17°C.
Market Description This market predicts the lowest (overnight/lowest) temperature for Suzhou on June 9, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Sunan Shuofang International Airport (ZSWX) in degrees Celsius on June 9, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sunan Shuofang Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/suzhou/ZSWX
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg,17 °C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Suzhou, China – Lowest Temperature
Market Title Lowest temperature in Suzhou, China on June 9, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 17°C. NO: The temperature is not 17°C.
Market Description This market predicts the lowest (overnight/lowest) temperature for Suzhou on June 9, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Sunan Shuofang International Airport (ZSWX) in degrees Celsius on June 9, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sunan Shuofang Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/suzhou/ZSWX
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg,17 °C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
New York, USA – Highest Temperature
Market Title Highest temperature in New York, USA on June 8, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 20°C. NO: The temperature is not 20°C.
Market Description This market predicts the highest (daytime) temperature for New York on June 8, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at JFK International Airport (JFK) in degrees Celsius on June 8, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the JFK Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york/JFK
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 20°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
New York, USA – Highest Temperature
Market Title Highest temperature in New York, USA on June 8, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 20°C. NO: The temperature is not 20°C.
Market Description This market predicts the highest (daytime) temperature for New York on June 8, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at JFK International Airport (JFK) in degrees Celsius on June 8, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the JFK Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york/JFK
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 20°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
London, UK – Lowest Temperature
Market Title Lowest temperature in London, United Kingdom on June 8, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 12°C. NO: The temperature is not 12°C.
Market Description This market predicts the lowest temperature for London onJune 8 , 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at Heathrow Airport (LHR) in degrees Celsius on June 8, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Heathrow Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/LHR
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 12°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
London, UK – Lowest Temperature
Market Title Lowest temperature in London, United Kingdom on June 8, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 12°C. NO: The temperature is not 12°C.
Market Description This market predicts the lowest temperature for London onJune 8 , 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at Heathrow Airport (LHR) in degrees Celsius on June 8, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Heathrow Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/LHR
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 12°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Title
Will NVIDIA's market cap exceed 5 trillion USD by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if NVIDIA's market capitalization exceeds 5 trillion US dollars at any point by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Public stock market data.
Resolution Source
Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, or Nasdaq official data.
Market Title
Will NVIDIA's market cap exceed 5 trillion USD by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if NVIDIA's market capitalization exceeds 5 trillion US dollars at any point by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Public stock market data.
Resolution Source
Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, or Nasdaq official data.
Market Title
Will China release a frontier AI model competitive with Western leaders by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a Chinese AI company releases a model matching or exceeding GPT-4 level performance by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Independent international benchmarks.
Resolution Source
LMSYS Chatbot Arena or Stanford AI Index.
Market Title
Will China release a frontier AI model competitive with Western leaders by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a Chinese AI company releases a model matching or exceeding GPT-4 level performance by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Independent international benchmarks.
Resolution Source
LMSYS Chatbot Arena or Stanford AI Index.
Market Title
Will Ethereum flip Bitcoin in market cap by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Ethereum's market capitalization surpasses Bitcoin's at any point during 2026 based on daily closes.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Any single day where ETH market cap exceeds BTC market cap.
Resolution Source
CoinMarketCap or CoinGecko daily rankings.
Market Title
Will Ethereum flip Bitcoin in market cap by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Ethereum's market capitalization surpasses Bitcoin's at any point during 2026 based on daily closes.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Any single day where ETH market cap exceeds BTC market cap.
Resolution Source
CoinMarketCap or CoinGecko daily rankings.
Market Title
Will a spot Solana ETF get approved in the US by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the U.S. SEC approves at least one spot Solana ETF by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official SEC approval announcement.
Resolution Source
SEC filings, Reuters, Bloomberg.
Market Title
Will a spot Solana ETF get approved in the US by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the U.S. SEC approves at least one spot Solana ETF by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official SEC approval announcement.
Resolution Source
SEC filings, Reuters, Bloomberg.
Market Title
Will Meta release Llama 4 by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Meta publicly releases Llama 4 or its next major open-source model by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Meta AI announcement.
Resolution Source
Meta AI blog.
Market Title
Will Meta release Llama 4 by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Meta publicly releases Llama 4 or its next major open-source model by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Meta AI announcement.
Resolution Source
Meta AI blog.
Market Title
Will USDT market cap surpass $200 billion by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Tether (USDT) circulating supply or market cap exceeds $200 billion on or before December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Tether report or aggregated data.
Resolution Source
Tether transparency page or CoinGecko.
Market Title
Will USDT market cap surpass $200 billion by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Tether (USDT) circulating supply or market cap exceeds $200 billion on or before December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Tether report or aggregated data.
Resolution Source
Tether transparency page or CoinGecko.
Market Title
Will the United States win a gold medal in men's basketball at the 2028 Olympics?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the United States men's basketball team wins the gold medal at the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics.
Proposed Resolution
Criteria Official IOC / Olympic medal results.
Resolution Source
Olympics.com, IOC official results, ESPN.
Market Title
Will the United States win a gold medal in men's basketball at the 2028 Olympics?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the United States men's basketball team wins the gold medal at the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics.
Proposed Resolution
Criteria Official IOC / Olympic medal results.
Resolution Source
Olympics.com, IOC official results, ESPN.
Market Title
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LX in February 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LX (2025 NFL season champion).
Proposed Resolution
Criteria Official NFL announcement of the Super Bowl winner.
Resolution Source
NFL.com, ESPN, Associated Press.
Market Title
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LX in February 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LX (2025 NFL season champion).
Proposed Resolution
Criteria Official NFL announcement of the Super Bowl winner.
Resolution Source
NFL.com, ESPN, Associated Press.
Market Title Will Bitcoin mining difficulty reach a new all-time high in 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if Bitcoin network mining difficulty sets a new record high at any adjustment period in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria New ATH recorded.
Resolution Source Blockchain.com or BTC.com explorers.
Market Title Will Bitcoin mining difficulty reach a new all-time high in 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if Bitcoin network mining difficulty sets a new record high at any adjustment period in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria New ATH recorded.
Resolution Source Blockchain.com or BTC.com explorers.
Polymarket