聊天记录
共 11 条，显示第 1-11 条
Market Title
Will Ukraine join NATO by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Ukraine officially becomes a member of NATO by August 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official NATO accession treaty ratification.
Resolution Source
NATO official statements.
Market Title
Will Ukraine join NATO by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Ukraine officially becomes a member of NATO by August 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official NATO accession treaty ratification.
Resolution Source
NATO official statements.
Market Title
Will Giorgia Meloni’s coalition win re-election in Italy by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy-led coalition wins the most seats in the next Italian general election.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official parliamentary election results.
Resolution Source
Italian Ministry of the Interior.
Market Title
Will Giorgia Meloni’s coalition win re-election in Italy by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy-led coalition wins the most seats in the next Italian general election.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official parliamentary election results.
Resolution Source
Italian Ministry of the Interior.
Tokyo, Japan (Highest Temperature)
Market Title: Highest temperature in Tokyo, Japan, on June 13, 2026?
Outcomes:
YES: The temperature is 28°C or higher.
NO: The temperature is below 28°C.
Market Description: This market predicts the highest temperature for Tokyo on June 13, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria: This market will resolve based on the maximum temperature recorded at the Tokyo Central Station in degrees Celsius on June 13, 2026.
Resolution Source: The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for this day by the forecast for Tokyo (RJTT) once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT
Tokyo, Japan (Highest Temperature)
Market Title: Highest temperature in Tokyo, Japan, on June 13, 2026?
Outcomes:
YES: The temperature is 28°C or higher.
NO: The temperature is below 28°C.
Market Description: This market predicts the highest temperature for Tokyo on June 13, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria: This market will resolve based on the maximum temperature recorded at the Tokyo Central Station in degrees Celsius on June 13, 2026.
Resolution Source: The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for this day by the forecast for Tokyo (RJTT) once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT
Moscow, Russia – Lowest Temperature
Market Title Lowest temperature in Moscow, Russia on June 11, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 33°C. NO: The temperature is not 33°C.
Market Description This market predicts the lowest (overnight/lowest) temperature for Moscow on June 11, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at Sheremetyevo International Airport (SVO) in degrees Celsius on June 11, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sheremetyevo Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ru/moscow/SVO
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 33°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Moscow, Russia – Lowest Temperature
Market Title Lowest temperature in Moscow, Russia on June 11, 2026?
Outcomes YES: The temperature is 33°C. NO: The temperature is not 33°C.
Market Description This market predicts the lowest (overnight/lowest) temperature for Moscow on June 11, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at Sheremetyevo International Airport (SVO) in degrees Celsius on June 11, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sheremetyevo Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ru/moscow/SVO
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 33°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Title
Will a cure or highly effective treatment for Type 1 Diabetes be announced by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a functional cure or long-term insulin-independent treatment for Type 1 Diabetes is announced.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Major clinical trial results and regulatory recognition.
Resolution Source
ADA (American Diabetes Association) or NEJM.
Market Title
Will a cure or highly effective treatment for Type 1 Diabetes be announced by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a functional cure or long-term insulin-independent treatment for Type 1 Diabetes is announced.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Major clinical trial results and regulatory recognition.
Resolution Source
ADA (American Diabetes Association) or NEJM.
Market Title Will a live animal be found inside a sealed ancient structure in 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if archaeologists discover a living animal inside a previously sealed ancient Egyptian tomb, pyramid, or similar structure in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Peer-reviewed archaeological report.
Resolution Source National Geographic or major archaeological journals.
Market Title Will a live animal be found inside a sealed ancient structure in 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if archaeologists discover a living animal inside a previously sealed ancient Egyptian tomb, pyramid, or similar structure in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Peer-reviewed archaeological report.
Resolution Source National Geographic or major archaeological journals.
Market Title
Will Joe Rogan’s podcast reach 5 billion total downloads by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if The Joe Rogan Experience podcast accumulates over 5 billion total downloads by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official or verified cumulative download statistics.
Resolution Source
Spotify or Joe Rogan official statements.
Market Title
Will Joe Rogan’s podcast reach 5 billion total downloads by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if The Joe Rogan Experience podcast accumulates over 5 billion total downloads by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official or verified cumulative download statistics.
Resolution Source
Spotify or Joe Rogan official statements.
Market Title
Will a new Star Wars live-action TV series premiere in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a new live-action Star Wars television series premieres on Disney+ in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official premiere date and episode release.
Resolution Source
Disney+ or Lucasfilm announcements.
Market Title
Will a new Star Wars live-action TV series premiere in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a new live-action Star Wars television series premieres on Disney+ in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official premiere date and episode release.
Resolution Source
Disney+ or Lucasfilm announcements.
Market Title Will it rain in Shanghai, China on June 6, 2026?
Outcomes YES: There is measurable precipitation (≥0.1 mm). NO: There is no measurable precipitation.
Market Description This market predicts whether measurable rain falls in Shanghai on June 6, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve Yes if any precipitation (≥0.1 mm) is recorded at Pudong International Airport (PVG) on June 6, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the daily precipitation recorded for the Pudong Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/PVG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
Any revisions to data recorded after finalization will not be considered.
Market Title Will it rain in Shanghai, China on June 6, 2026?
Outcomes YES: There is measurable precipitation (≥0.1 mm). NO: There is no measurable precipitation.
Market Description This market predicts whether measurable rain falls in Shanghai on June 6, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria This market will resolve Yes if any precipitation (≥0.1 mm) is recorded at Pudong International Airport (PVG) on June 6, 2026.
Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the daily precipitation recorded for the Pudong Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/PVG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
Any revisions to data recorded after finalization will not be considered.
Market Title
Will AI surpass human doctors in general medical diagnosis by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if AI systems demonstrate superior diagnostic accuracy compared to human physicians across multiple specialties.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Published medical studies and expert consensus.
Resolution Source
The Lancet, JAMA, or major medical journals.
Market Title
Will AI surpass human doctors in general medical diagnosis by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if AI systems demonstrate superior diagnostic accuracy compared to human physicians across multiple specialties.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Published medical studies and expert consensus.
Resolution Source
The Lancet, JAMA, or major medical journals.
Market Title
Will a robot powered by advanced AI pass the physical Turing Test by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a humanoid robot with AI demonstrates human-level physical and cognitive interaction in real-world environments.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Widely accepted by robotics and AI experts.
Resolution Source
IEEE Spectrum or major robotics conferences.
Market Title
Will a robot powered by advanced AI pass the physical Turing Test by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a humanoid robot with AI demonstrates human-level physical and cognitive interaction in real-world environments.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Widely accepted by robotics and AI experts.
Resolution Source
IEEE Spectrum or major robotics conferences.
Polymarket