聊天记录
共 15 条，显示第 1-15 条
Market Title
Will there be a permanent armistice in the Russia-Ukraine war by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a permanent armistice is signed and holds for at least 30 days by August 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Signed agreement with sustained cessation of hostilities.
Resolution Source
US/EU intelligence or UN reports.
Market Title
Will there be a permanent armistice in the Russia-Ukraine war by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a permanent armistice is signed and holds for at least 30 days by August 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Signed agreement with sustained cessation of hostilities.
Resolution Source
US/EU intelligence or UN reports.
Market Title
Will Russia capture Kharkiv by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Russian forces fully capture and control Kharkiv city by August 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Russian forces control the city center.
Resolution Source
ISW or US intelligence reports.
Market Title
Will Russia capture Kharkiv by August 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Russian forces fully capture and control Kharkiv city by August 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Russian forces control the city center.
Resolution Source
ISW or US intelligence reports.
Market Title
Will the DPP retain the presidency in Taiwan’s next election cycle by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate wins the Taiwanese presidential election.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Central Election Commission results.
Resolution Source
Central Election Commission, Taiwan.
Market Title
Will the DPP retain the presidency in Taiwan’s next election cycle by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate wins the Taiwanese presidential election.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Central Election Commission results.
Resolution Source
Central Election Commission, Taiwan.
Market Title
Will the LDP retain majority in the Japanese House of Representatives by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) holds a majority or leads the government after any general election in Japan by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official election results.
Resolution Source
Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Japan.
Market Title
Will the LDP retain majority in the Japanese House of Representatives by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) holds a majority or leads the government after any general election in Japan by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official election results.
Resolution Source
Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Japan.
Market Title: What will be the lowest temperature in Moscow, Russia on June 19, 2026?
Result: Yes: The temperature is 13°C. No: The temperature is not 13°C.
Market Description: This market forecasts the lowest temperature (nighttime/lowest temperature) in Moscow on June 19, 2026.
Suggested Resolution Standard: This market will resolve to a temperature range (in degrees Celsius) including the lowest temperature recorded at Sheremetyevo International Airport (SVO) on June 19, 2026.
Resolution Source: This market's resolution source will be Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperatures recorded at all times of the day by the Sheremetyevo Airport weather station (to be finalized), which can be viewed here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ru/moscow/SVO
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar, and then switch between °F and °C in the temperature settings.
This market cannot be rated "Yes" until all data for the day is finalized. This market determination is based on whole degrees Celsius (e.g., 13°C). Therefore, market determination will use this level of precision.
Any temperature corrections recorded after the data is finalized within this market period will not be considered.
Market Title: What will be the lowest temperature in Moscow, Russia on June 19, 2026?
Result: Yes: The temperature is 13°C. No: The temperature is not 13°C.
Market Description: This market forecasts the lowest temperature (nighttime/lowest temperature) in Moscow on June 19, 2026.
Suggested Resolution Standard: This market will resolve to a temperature range (in degrees Celsius) including the lowest temperature recorded at Sheremetyevo International Airport (SVO) on June 19, 2026.
Resolution Source: This market's resolution source will be Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperatures recorded at all times of the day by the Sheremetyevo Airport weather station (to be finalized), which can be viewed here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ru/moscow/SVO
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar, and then switch between °F and °C in the temperature settings.
This market cannot be rated "Yes" until all data for the day is finalized. This market determination is based on whole degrees Celsius (e.g., 13°C). Therefore, market determination will use this level of precision.
Any temperature corrections recorded after the data is finalized within this market period will not be considered.
Market Title: What will be the highest temperature in Paris, France on June 15, 2026?
Result: Yes: The temperature is 21°C. No: The temperature is not 21°C.
Market Description: This market forecasts the highest temperature in Paris on June 15, 2026.
Suggested Resolution Standard: This market will use the temperature range of the highest temperature (in degrees Celsius) recorded at Charles de Gaulle Airport (CDG) on June 15, 2026.
Resolution Source: The resolution source for this market is information provided by the Wunderground website, specifically the highest temperature recorded that day by the Charles de Gaulle Airport weather station (to be finalized), which can be viewed here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/CDG
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar, and then switch between °F and °C in the temperature settings.
This market cannot be rated "Yes" until all data for the day is finalized.
This market determination is based on whole degrees Celsius (e.g., 21°C). Therefore, market determination will use this level of precision.
Any temperature corrections recorded after the data is finalized within this market period will not be considered.
Market Title: What will be the highest temperature in Paris, France on June 15, 2026?
Result: Yes: The temperature is 21°C. No: The temperature is not 21°C.
Market Description: This market forecasts the highest temperature in Paris on June 15, 2026.
Suggested Resolution Standard: This market will use the temperature range of the highest temperature (in degrees Celsius) recorded at Charles de Gaulle Airport (CDG) on June 15, 2026.
Resolution Source: The resolution source for this market is information provided by the Wunderground website, specifically the highest temperature recorded that day by the Charles de Gaulle Airport weather station (to be finalized), which can be viewed here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/CDG
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar, and then switch between °F and °C in the temperature settings.
This market cannot be rated "Yes" until all data for the day is finalized.
This market determination is based on whole degrees Celsius (e.g., 21°C). Therefore, market determination will use this level of precision.
Any temperature corrections recorded after the data is finalized within this market period will not be considered.
Market Title
Will the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine be awarded for cancer immunotherapy advancements?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine recognizes work on cancer immunotherapy.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Nobel announcement.
Resolution Source
Nobel Prize official website.
Market Title
Will the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine be awarded for cancer immunotherapy advancements?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the 2026 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine recognizes work on cancer immunotherapy.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Nobel announcement.
Resolution Source
Nobel Prize official website.
Market Title
Will a Nobel Prize be awarded for AI-assisted drug discovery breakthroughs by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a Nobel Prize in Chemistry or Physiology/Medicine is awarded for AI-driven pharmaceutical discoveries.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Nobel Prize announcement.
Resolution Source
Nobel Prize official website.
Market Title
Will a Nobel Prize be awarded for AI-assisted drug discovery breakthroughs by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a Nobel Prize in Chemistry or Physiology/Medicine is awarded for AI-driven pharmaceutical discoveries.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Nobel Prize announcement.
Resolution Source
Nobel Prize official website.
Market Title Will a ghost or paranormal event be captured with scientific instruments in a controlled setting in 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if credible scientists capture verifiable paranormal activity using scientific equipment in a controlled experiment in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Peer-reviewed publication with reproducible results.
Resolution Source Society for Psychical Research or scientific journals.
Market Title Will a ghost or paranormal event be captured with scientific instruments in a controlled setting in 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if credible scientists capture verifiable paranormal activity using scientific equipment in a controlled experiment in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Peer-reviewed publication with reproducible results.
Resolution Source Society for Psychical Research or scientific journals.
Market Title Will a human baby be born with confirmed genetic modification by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if a baby is born with publicly confirmed intentional genetic editing (CRISPR or similar) beyond standard medical treatment.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Scientific confirmation and ethical review publication.
Resolution Source Nature Biotechnology or WHO reports.
Market Title Will a human baby be born with confirmed genetic modification by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if a baby is born with publicly confirmed intentional genetic editing (CRISPR or similar) beyond standard medical treatment.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Scientific confirmation and ethical review publication.
Resolution Source Nature Biotechnology or WHO reports.
Market Title
Will Spotify reach 1 billion total users (free + paid) by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Spotify reports 1 billion or more monthly active users by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Spotify earnings report.
Resolution Source
Spotify Investor Relations.
Market Title
Will Spotify reach 1 billion total users (free + paid) by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Spotify reports 1 billion or more monthly active users by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Spotify earnings report.
Resolution Source
Spotify Investor Relations.
Market Title: What will be the highest temperature in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on June 6, 2026?
Result: Yes: The temperature is 27°C. No: The temperature is not 27°C.
Market Description: This market forecasts the highest (daytime) temperature in Rio de Janeiro on June 6, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Standard: This market will resolve to a temperature range that includes the highest Celsius temperature recorded at Galeón International Airport (GIG) on June 6, 2026.
Resolution Source: The resolution source for this market will be from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperatures recorded at all times of the day by the Galeón International Airport weather station (subject to final data confirmation), which can be viewed here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/rio-de-janeiro/GIG
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the temperature setting from °F to °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data is finalized.
The resolution for this market is based on temperature measurements in degrees Celsius (e.g., 26°C). Therefore, this is the level of accuracy that will be used for market settlement.
Any temperature corrections recorded after the data has been finalized during the market period will not be considered.
Market Title: What will be the highest temperature in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on June 6, 2026?
Result: Yes: The temperature is 27°C. No: The temperature is not 27°C.
Market Description: This market forecasts the highest (daytime) temperature in Rio de Janeiro on June 6, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Standard: This market will resolve to a temperature range that includes the highest Celsius temperature recorded at Galeón International Airport (GIG) on June 6, 2026.
Resolution Source: The resolution source for this market will be from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperatures recorded at all times of the day by the Galeón International Airport weather station (subject to final data confirmation), which can be viewed here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/rio-de-janeiro/GIG
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the temperature setting from °F to °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data is finalized.
The resolution for this market is based on temperature measurements in degrees Celsius (e.g., 26°C). Therefore, this is the level of accuracy that will be used for market settlement.
Any temperature corrections recorded after the data has been finalized during the market period will not be considered.
Market Title: What is the average humidity in Tokyo, Japan on June 7, 2026?
Result: Yes: Average humidity is 65%. No: Average humidity is not equal to 65%.
Market Description: This market forecasts the daily average relative humidity in Tokyo on June 7, 2026.
Suggested Resolution Standard: This market will resolve to the average humidity value recorded at Haneda Airport (HND) on June 7, 2026.
Resolution Source: This market's resolution source is Haneda Airport (HND) data provided by Wunderground, at: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/HND
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar, and then switch between °F and °C in the temperature settings.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for that date is determined.
Market Title: What is the average humidity in Tokyo, Japan on June 7, 2026?
Result: Yes: Average humidity is 65%. No: Average humidity is not equal to 65%.
Market Description: This market forecasts the daily average relative humidity in Tokyo on June 7, 2026.
Suggested Resolution Standard: This market will resolve to the average humidity value recorded at Haneda Airport (HND) on June 7, 2026.
Resolution Source: This market's resolution source is Haneda Airport (HND) data provided by Wunderground, at: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/HND
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar, and then switch between °F and °C in the temperature settings.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for that date is determined.
Market Title
Will global AI investment exceed 500 billion USD in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if total global investment in AI companies and projects exceeds 500 billion US dollars during the year 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Cumulative investment data.
Resolution Source
Stanford AI Index or CB Insights reports.
Market Title
Will global AI investment exceed 500 billion USD in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if total global investment in AI companies and projects exceeds 500 billion US dollars during the year 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Cumulative investment data.
Resolution Source
Stanford AI Index or CB Insights reports.
Market Title
Will NVIDIA's market cap exceed 5 trillion USD by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if NVIDIA's market capitalization exceeds 5 trillion US dollars at any point by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Public stock market data.
Resolution Source
Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, or Nasdaq official data.
Market Title
Will NVIDIA's market cap exceed 5 trillion USD by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if NVIDIA's market capitalization exceeds 5 trillion US dollars at any point by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Public stock market data.
Resolution Source
Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, or Nasdaq official data.
Polymarket