该用户的聊天记录定位。
yeah you can try, but it's hard to price stuff like that, and then it just becomes a measure of your risk appetite, which is what kelly was supposed to solve for in the first place!
yeah you can try, but it's hard to price stuff like that, and then it just becomes a measure of your risk appetite, which is what kelly was supposed to solve for in the first place!
full kelly especially doesnt work on poly, where you have to deduct like 5-10% from every FV calculation to capture the risk you get screwed by the UMA
full kelly especially doesnt work on poly, where you have to deduct like 5-10% from every FV calculation to capture the risk you get screwed by the UMA
where it's trivial since bonds are 100% FV
where it's trivial since bonds are 100% FV
it only works with bonds really
it only works with bonds really
its basically a hypothetical that doesnt work in the real world and especially doesnt work in prediction markets
its basically a hypothetical that doesnt work in the real world and especially doesnt work in prediction markets
full kelly is only plausible if you're 100% certain of FV
full kelly is only plausible if you're 100% certain of FV
gm
gm
radical centrist
radical centrist
why were these refunded
why were these refunded
its me
its me
https://x.com/real_ebs_/status/2066109356815307071?s=46&t=FL-8CwMtSx4oIujIhY06IQ
https://x.com/real_ebs_/status/2066109356815307071?s=46&t=FL-8CwMtSx4oIujIhY06IQ
https://x.com/tpsiofficial/status/2065423223013900686?s=46&t=FL-8CwMtSx4oIujIhY06IQ wow!
https://x.com/tpsiofficial/status/2065423223013900686?s=46&t=FL-8CwMtSx4oIujIhY06IQ wow!
hes running
hes running
IRL IRV yes please
IRL IRV yes please
source agency = tim pool, catturd, the food babe
source agency = tim pool, catturd, the food babe
my timeline is probably permacursed
my timeline is probably permacursed
i messed up ive been replying to every single one
i messed up ive been replying to every single one
welcome to <#1282391494900191242> .... leave your sanity at the door🤪
welcome to <#1282391494900191242> .... leave your sanity at the door🤪
hi
hi
bernie is planning an ny rally, per reports
bernie is planning an ny rally, per reports
R1: everyone who gets at least 20% advances R2: top two advance R3: winner
R1: everyone who gets at least 20% advances R2: top two advance R3: winner
like, the dumbest possible implementation of runoff voting
like, the dumbest possible implementation of runoff voting
that'd be funny
that'd be funny
apparently not
apparently not
does anywhere in the world do three round runoff elections
does anywhere in the world do three round runoff elections
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feigned_retreat
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feigned_retreat
https://x.com/moonlitmustelid/status/2065261715768352859?s=46&t=FL-8CwMtSx4oIujIhY06IQ
https://x.com/moonlitmustelid/status/2065261715768352859?s=46&t=FL-8CwMtSx4oIujIhY06IQ
https://x.com/gatorgar/status/2065239929429319841?s=46&t=FL-8CwMtSx4oIujIhY06IQ back with more financial advice
https://x.com/gatorgar/status/2065239929429319841?s=46&t=FL-8CwMtSx4oIujIhY06IQ back with more financial advice
its on iapolls2022
its on iapolls2022
https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/2064722728821620972?s=46&t=FL-8CwMtSx4oIujIhY06IQ It's Fishback Time
https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/2064722728821620972?s=46&t=FL-8CwMtSx4oIujIhY06IQ It's Fishback Time
𓅞
𓅞
🪿
🪿
🪿
🪿
from the secret part of predicthq👀
from the secret part of predicthq👀
https://x.com/safetynotorious/status/2064243859962630475?s=46&t=FL-8CwMtSx4oIujIhY06IQ
https://x.com/safetynotorious/status/2064243859962630475?s=46&t=FL-8CwMtSx4oIujIhY06IQ
thank u for the neetbux
thank u for the neetbux
anything cool
anything cool
whate everybunny for tonight's primaries
whate everybunny for tonight's primaries
if you cant buy nithya y at 40 and realize a profit then quit trading
if you cant buy nithya y at 40 and realize a profit then quit trading
i was trying to buy at 30 two days ago. i should have just mogged every wall under 35
i was trying to buy at 30 two days ago. i should have just mogged every wall under 35
book it
book it
raman is going to 60 within weeks
raman is going to 60 within weeks
https://x.com/gatorgar/status/2064373308011720973?s=46&t=FL-8CwMtSx4oIujIhY06IQ
https://x.com/gatorgar/status/2064373308011720973?s=46&t=FL-8CwMtSx4oIujIhY06IQ
its real
its real
https://x.com/ravious101/status/2064119821881442544?s=46&t=FL-8CwMtSx4oIujIhY06IQ
https://x.com/ravious101/status/2064119821881442544?s=46&t=FL-8CwMtSx4oIujIhY06IQ
https://x.com/njmaga88/status/2064193909996105870?s=46&t=FL-8CwMtSx4oIujIhY06IQ
https://x.com/njmaga88/status/2064193909996105870?s=46&t=FL-8CwMtSx4oIujIhY06IQ
why am i not in new york
why am i not in new york
well done!
well done!
damn nice slip. what was your spencer entry
damn nice slip. what was your spencer entry
Merry Prattmas everybody
Merry Prattmas everybody
Kalshi
Polymarket