i
i
@bernardbulletin参与话题 57消息总数 1679
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共 1679 条，显示第 301-350 条can
can
jinx
jinx
you first
you first
@bernardbulletin
2026-06-29 04:27:51
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Kalshi
科罗拉多初选候选人胜选概率的定价分歧（Hickenlooper/Bennet/Gonzales/Weiser）
Kalshi
科罗拉多初选候选人胜选概率的定价分歧（Hickenlooper/Bennet/Gonzales/Weiser）
you can tell me
you can tell me
@bernardbulletin
2026-06-29 04:27:49
↗
Kalshi
科罗拉多初选候选人胜选概率的定价分歧（Hickenlooper/Bennet/Gonzales/Weiser）
Kalshi
科罗拉多初选候选人胜选概率的定价分歧（Hickenlooper/Bennet/Gonzales/Weiser）
who is winning CO-01
who is winning CO-01
hey
hey
PolymarketCan we try this out for a CO-01 D Primary MOV market? And a CO-Sen D primary market.
Can we try this out for a CO-01 D Primary MOV market? And a CO-Sen D primary market.
ahhh gotcha. IIRC the way this was handled in the LA Mayor "dashboard" was pretty intuitive
ahhh gotcha. IIRC the way this was handled in the LA Mayor "dashboard" was pretty intuitive
no, you should have told me
no, you should have told me
Trading LA Sen last night though was great
Trading LA Sen last night though was great
When I started trading these margin markets last Nov I really hated thinking about the bounded margin brackets
When I started trading these margin markets last Nov I really hated thinking about the bounded margin brackets
It's just a weird thing to bet on
It's just a weird thing to bet on
im hoping we get directional margins for the big CO races
im hoping we get directional margins for the big CO races
yeah true
yeah true
Oh then if that's the case, all the better
Oh then if that's the case, all the better
But my view is that increased retail flow would make the latter more profitable overall, since the former isn't profitable if you're the only person on the OB
But my view is that increased retail flow would make the latter more profitable overall, since the former isn't profitable if you're the only person on the OB
So if your model says a candidate wins by exactly 11%, with narrow bounded strikes, you can probably buy like 9-12% for $.20 or lower (thinking about some recent elections where this was the case). With open-ended strikes, you'd probably have to buy like 10%+ for $.40, 5%+ for $.80, 15%+ N for $.80, etc.
So if your model says a candidate wins by exactly 11%, with narrow bounded strikes, you can probably buy like 9-12% for $.20 or lower (thinking about some recent elections where this was the case). With open-ended strikes, you'd probably have to buy like 10%+ for $.40, 5%+ for $.80, 15%+ N for $.80, etc.
<@1212792946341183578> <@941405798096076880> Just to give some feedback: For secondary election markets like MOV % and candidate Vote %, I think the default should be open-ended strikes instead of bounded strikes. Open-ended strikes are more intuitive and make it easy to discern what the market thinks the O/U is just from looking at the orderbook. I also suspect open-ended strikes are more attractive to retail traders, who likely get intimidated thinking about bounded strikes. "I think my candidate will win by 10% or more" is an easier bet to place than "I think my candidate will win by somewhere between 9 and 12 exactly." I can see modelsharps preferring bounded ranges because it theoretically allows them to deploy capital more efficiently, but that doesn't matter if the retail flow is worse.
<@1212792946341183578> <@941405798096076880> Just to give some feedback: For secondary election markets like MOV % and candidate Vote %, I think the default should be open-ended strikes instead of bounded strikes. Open-ended strikes are more intuitive and make it easy to discern what the market thinks the O/U is just from looking at the orderbook. I also suspect open-ended strikes are more attractive to retail traders, who likely get intimidated thinking about bounded strikes. "I think my candidate will win by 10% or more" is an easier bet to place than "I think my candidate will win by somewhere between 9 and 12 exactly." I can see modelsharps preferring bounded ranges because it theoretically allows them to deploy capital more efficiently, but that doesn't matter if the retail flow is worse.
i can see modelsharps preferring the bounded ranges because it allows them to deploy capital more efficiently, but that doesn't matter if the retail flow is worse
i can see modelsharps preferring the bounded ranges because it allows them to deploy capital more efficiently, but that doesn't matter if the retail flow is worse
"i think my candidate wins by 10 at least" is more attractive to bet on than "i think my candidate wins by 9-12% exactly"
"i think my candidate wins by 10 at least" is more attractive to bet on than "i think my candidate wins by 9-12% exactly"
its super intuitive, and it makes it easy to discern what the market thinks the O/U is. i also think for big races it's gonna be more attractive for retail, who will get intimidated trying to guess whether a result will fall between like, 3 and 6
its super intuitive, and it makes it easy to discern what the market thinks the O/U is. i also think for big races it's gonna be more attractive for retail, who will get intimidated trying to guess whether a result will fall between like, 3 and 6
<@717963841245282355> <@1066645794108735510> after LA Sen, i just want to say trading open-ended margin tranches is so much nicer than the bounded ones
<@717963841245282355> <@1066645794108735510> after LA Sen, i just want to say trading open-ended margin tranches is so much nicer than the bounded ones
isnt Connections installed here
isnt Connections installed here
i dont think N holders can point to actual harm from the decision to accelerate. im more curious as to why it happened procedurally
i dont think N holders can point to actual harm from the decision to accelerate. im more curious as to why it happened procedurally
yeah and again im with you on it
yeah and again im with you on it
unless you want a contract term that basically says "kalshi can accelerate this whenever they feel like it"
unless you want a contract term that basically says "kalshi can accelerate this whenever they feel like it"
because theres no better way to deal with this patchwork of laws and systems
because theres no better way to deal with this patchwork of laws and systems
i dont really know how county cert operations vis a vis state cert, and thats exactly why final cert makes sense as the contract standard
i dont really know how county cert operations vis a vis state cert, and thats exactly why final cert makes sense as the contract standard
accelerating the main market based on the AP call makes sense is really more the exception than the rule
accelerating the main market based on the AP call makes sense is really more the exception than the rule
yeah but then we have to define ambiguity, and thats just needless complexity tbh
yeah but then we have to define ambiguity, and thats just needless complexity tbh
exactly what youre asking
exactly what youre asking
i remember asking him this actually and he didnt respond
i remember asking him this actually and he didnt respond
thats up to bl0nk, if he cares to explain
thats up to bl0nk, if he cares to explain
sure, if it were up to me i would not have accelerated the margin
sure, if it were up to me i would not have accelerated the margin
well i might be a minority on this but i do think its proper that margin markets require certification
well i might be a minority on this but i do think its proper that margin markets require certification
if the vasc stepped in tomorrow and said "actually, go and certify it" then yeah kalshi would have a big ass problem on their hands, but its not happening
if the vasc stepped in tomorrow and said "actually, go and certify it" then yeah kalshi would have a big ass problem on their hands, but its not happening
yeah like i was saying earlier, you do have a theoretical argument there, but it's all irrelevant
yeah like i was saying earlier, you do have a theoretical argument there, but it's all irrelevant
to my knowledge they are updating this where margin markets wont require certification in circumstances like this
to my knowledge they are updating this where margin markets wont require certification in circumstances like this
its all expressly laid out in the contract(s)
its all expressly laid out in the contract(s)
seems like a shoddier contract would have been tripped up
seems like a shoddier contract would have been tripped up
so i am kind of impressed that Kalshi's basic elections contract was able to handle this scenario
so i am kind of impressed that Kalshi's basic elections contract was able to handle this scenario
obviously its only really relevant to elections legal scholars and gamblers
obviously its only really relevant to elections legal scholars and gamblers
i was thinking about this the other day: vasc overturning this thing and denying certification completely was actually nearly unprecedented in the USA, and that hasnt been remarked upon much
i was thinking about this the other day: vasc overturning this thing and denying certification completely was actually nearly unprecedented in the USA, and that hasnt been remarked upon much
i personally was expecting to hold til Nov tbh
i personally was expecting to hold til Nov tbh
how was it ever gonna be certified, other than the pathway i laid out
how was it ever gonna be certified, other than the pathway i laid out
iirc it resolved after the us supreme court declined to hear the case, meaning the Yes side had no legal avenues left. i kind of agree with you in the sense that, theoretically Yes could have gone back to the courts with a different argument, and some court could have ordered certification. but in the real world thats not happening even 1:1000 times
iirc it resolved after the us supreme court declined to hear the case, meaning the Yes side had no legal avenues left. i kind of agree with you in the sense that, theoretically Yes could have gone back to the courts with a different argument, and some court could have ordered certification. but in the real world thats not happening even 1:1000 times
what was the world cup dispute ? about color commentator? can someone send me the market/strike
what was the world cup dispute ? about color commentator? can someone send me the market/strike
check out what i got
check out what i got
gm
gm