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yeon 2026-06-12 03:22:51 Polymarket

in all seriousness it does look like the deal is legit, but I don't think they will get all the approvals before the 15th

in all seriousness it does look like the deal is legit, but I don't think they will get all the approvals before the 15th

yeon 2026-06-12 03:22:16 Polymarket

lindsey graham is furiously sending text messages to trump rn, peacetards are cooked

lindsey graham is furiously sending text messages to trump rn, peacetards are cooked

yeon 2026-06-12 03:13:08 Polymarket

wait so trump did all of this bombing and in the end he's the one who caved? <:ICANT:1055828905031909467>

wait so trump did all of this bombing and in the end he's the one who caved? <:ICANT:1055828905031909467>

yeon 2026-06-12 02:50:52 Polymarket

just wondering

just wondering

yeon 2026-06-12 02:50:37 Polymarket

arman do you know what the definition of insanity is?

arman do you know what the definition of insanity is?

yeon 2026-06-12 02:48:36 Polymarket

https://polymarket.com/profile/0xAF2383B66194112D57AC196B00AB25f78c17aA95 all of them

https://polymarket.com/profile/0xAF2383B66194112D57AC196B00AB25f78c17aA95 all of them

yeon 2026-06-12 02:48:00 Polymarket

as of now, it honestly sounds like trump just chickened out of strikes. nothing has been agreed Iran just submitted another draft is all they are saying

as of now, it honestly sounds like trump just chickened out of strikes. nothing has been agreed Iran just submitted another draft is all they are saying

yeon 2026-06-11 23:56:44 Polymarket

both of those counted vro

both of those counted vro

yeon 2026-06-11 23:24:35 Polymarket

if trump said "they should sign the deal then they can go off and say I hate trump", is trump endorsing that he hates himself? stop the cap

if trump said "they should sign the deal then they can go off and say I hate trump", is trump endorsing that he hates himself? stop the cap

yeon 2026-06-11 23:13:53 Polymarket

there's no need to even argue this one. it's the easiest clarification for No

there's no need to even argue this one. it's the easiest clarification for No

yeon 2026-06-11 20:54:59 Polymarket

yes more kharg island brackets please. trump just posted on truth social he wants to take it

yes more kharg island brackets please. trump just posted on truth social he wants to take it

yeon 2026-06-11 19:55:00 Polymarket

if he says he will resign after election it counts too

if he says he will resign after election it counts too

yeon 2026-06-11 19:52:47 Polymarket

but I think it's a decent lottery

but I think it's a decent lottery

yeon 2026-06-11 19:52:38 Polymarket

no lol im just jk. I have that mostly from before

no lol im just jk. I have that mostly from before

yeon 2026-06-11 19:51:46 Polymarket

alpha (or fade me if you dare)

alpha (or fade me if you dare)

yeon 2026-06-11 19:51:32 Polymarket

his defence secretary just resigned

his defence secretary just resigned

yeon 2026-06-11 19:51:24 Polymarket

nah he's going to lay out a plan to resign after leadership campaign very soon

nah he's going to lay out a plan to resign after leadership campaign very soon

yeon 2026-06-11 19:49:00 Polymarket

they all say they won't leave, but starmer is on very shaky ground right now

they all say they won't leave, but starmer is on very shaky ground right now

yeon 2026-06-11 19:46:06 Polymarket

however considering starmer out by august is trading at like 50c, starmer Y is a cheaper alternative

however considering starmer out by august is trading at like 50c, starmer Y is a cheaper alternative

yeon 2026-06-11 19:44:43 Polymarket

basically that market means, if you are scheduled to depart due to an election, you are not "out" until you actually leave office

basically that market means, if you are scheduled to depart due to an election, you are not "out" until you actually leave office

yeon 2026-06-11 17:02:06 Polymarket

<@1272383282687905939>

<@1272383282687905939>

yeon 2026-06-11 16:14:16 Polymarket

yes it's already confirmed

yes it's already confirmed

yeon 2026-06-11 14:19:28 Polymarket

it shows here

it shows here

yeon 2026-06-11 14:07:28 Polymarket

forget where I saw exactly, but this is one example: https://x.com/dolfiniran/status/2064829887517487445 at least says iranians believe there is a regime change plan coming

forget where I saw exactly, but this is one example: https://x.com/dolfiniran/status/2064829887517487445 at least says iranians believe there is a regime change plan coming

yeon 2026-06-11 14:02:34 Polymarket

there's actually a reason for this, there were some reports on iranian tg channels of a coup rumors afaik

there's actually a reason for this, there were some reports on iranian tg channels of a coup rumors afaik

yeon 2026-06-11 13:59:18 Polymarket

yes but they were possibly at the same place and shuttling messages, just not clear reporting on the details

yes but they were possibly at the same place and shuttling messages, just not clear reporting on the details

yeon 2026-06-11 13:57:22 Polymarket

ok maybe not scam but unclear reporting

ok maybe not scam but unclear reporting

yeon 2026-06-11 13:56:50 Polymarket

there's a possible scam with diplomatic meeting but I don't think it will hold

there's a possible scam with diplomatic meeting but I don't think it will hold

yeon 2026-06-11 13:39:01 Polymarket

are there any other sources for doha besides barak ravid

are there any other sources for doha besides barak ravid

yeon 2026-06-11 13:34:19 Polymarket

poly should just give up on PR they are bad at it

poly should just give up on PR they are bad at it

yeon 2026-06-11 13:33:49 Polymarket

there was no issue with that one

there was no issue with that one

yeon 2026-06-11 13:33:37 Polymarket

why don't they just repeat the ceasefire lasts until market

why don't they just repeat the ceasefire lasts until market

yeon 2026-06-11 13:28:15 Polymarket

It's not a clear no but it's even less clear of a yes imo

It's not a clear no but it's even less clear of a yes imo

yeon 2026-06-11 13:25:14 Polymarket

I don't know hebew to contest that but it will depend on whether that is a specific term of art that can unambiguously be interpreted as shuttle diplomacy

I don't know hebew to contest that but it will depend on whether that is a specific term of art that can unambiguously be interpreted as shuttle diplomacy

yeon 2026-06-11 13:24:23 Polymarket

hmm ok

hmm ok

yeon 2026-06-11 13:22:26 Polymarket

y? it says separate talks

y? it says separate talks

yeon 2026-06-11 13:21:16 Polymarket

this one

this one

yeon 2026-06-11 13:20:32 Polymarket

yes barack ravid in his tweet clarified that they were separate meetings

yes barack ravid in his tweet clarified that they were separate meetings

yeon 2026-06-11 13:18:58 Polymarket

that's not what it says

that's not what it says

yeon 2026-06-11 13:18:18 Polymarket

where do you see that all 3 parties are in doha?

where do you see that all 3 parties are in doha?

yeon 2026-06-11 13:15:56 Polymarket

it's very simple. if the meeting is indirect, then it must be in person to qualify

it's very simple. if the meeting is indirect, then it must be in person to qualify

yeon 2026-06-11 13:11:41 Polymarket

this is both indirect and not in person

this is both indirect and not in person

yeon 2026-06-11 13:11:10 Polymarket

dude are you esl? > The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) this says: in person: YES, indirect in person: YES, not in person: NO, indirect not in person: NO

dude are you esl? > The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) this says: in person: YES, indirect in person: YES, not in person: NO, indirect not in person: NO

yeon 2026-06-11 13:09:56 Polymarket

imcrine you guys made this dump to 98.5

imcrine you guys made this dump to 98.5

yeon 2026-06-11 13:07:35 Polymarket

cause it says. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.

cause it says. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.

yeon 2026-06-11 13:04:58 Polymarket

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shuttle_diplomacy

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shuttle_diplomacy

yeon 2026-06-11 13:04:01 Polymarket

The original shuttle diplomacy example is two parties in the same building and shuttling messages between them

The original shuttle diplomacy example is two parties in the same building and shuttling messages between them

yeon 2026-06-11 12:48:11 Polymarket

> Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. I mean, this clearly kills it. No way anyone went to Tehran

> Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. I mean, this clearly kills it. No way anyone went to Tehran