Polymarketno idea tbh. we should run a poll
no idea tbh. we should run a poll
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共 94 条，显示第 51-94 条i get your point but vwap will simply push everyone into MM since taker strats would have less edge. not saying it's a good thing or a bad thing but when more crowd into one field, the edge in that field will also dilute
i get your point but vwap will simply push everyone into MM since taker strats would have less edge. not saying it's a good thing or a bad thing but when more crowd into one field, the edge in that field will also dilute
he's probably talkin about taker strats, directional plays, nothing to do with quoting / MM. this new implementation would i guess decrease volatility all around and a lot of taker strats thrive in volatility
he's probably talkin about taker strats, directional plays, nothing to do with quoting / MM. this new implementation would i guess decrease volatility all around and a lot of taker strats thrive in volatility
there are many strategies one can run even with better fair value models
there are many strategies one can run even with better fair value models
fascinating
fascinating
so what is the context now, are they going to do something about it or leave it as is
so what is the context now, are they going to do something about it or leave it as is
thanks
thanks
good to know
good to know
i agree that it's definitely not just a 50/50 and manipulation definitely matters
i agree that it's definitely not just a 50/50 and manipulation definitely matters
correct me if im wrong but from what i have (briefly) read above, mustafa is literally saying that it's unlikely to be true and that if it is true that it doesn't matter because it's a 50/50 anyway and applying a 50/50 to 50/50 odds changes nothing. his words
correct me if im wrong but from what i have (briefly) read above, mustafa is literally saying that it's unlikely to be true and that if it is true that it doesn't matter because it's a 50/50 anyway and applying a 50/50 to 50/50 odds changes nothing. his words
mustafa above
mustafa above
yup
yup
i believe that P is simply a sigmoid and is basically analogous to the fair value model of the midprice (z score using those params). my suggestion was simply for a proof of existence. since some people do not believe it exists
i believe that P is simply a sigmoid and is basically analogous to the fair value model of the midprice (z score using those params). my suggestion was simply for a proof of existence. since some people do not believe it exists
anyway, im not big on the crypto space and am behind. anything new or interesting been happening?
anyway, im not big on the crypto space and am behind. anything new or interesting been happening?
if we assume variance of BTC changes randomly and is not dependent on every 5 minute window, then we should be able to quantify manipulation by simply checking if statistically more boundary crosses occur in the final 5 seconds of a window as compared to any other 5 seconds in that window. there is surely enough data now collected for anyone to run this analysis.
if we assume variance of BTC changes randomly and is not dependent on every 5 minute window, then we should be able to quantify manipulation by simply checking if statistically more boundary crosses occur in the final 5 seconds of a window as compared to any other 5 seconds in that window. there is surely enough data now collected for anyone to run this analysis.
https://tenor.com/view/introduction-sherlock-benedict-cumberbatch-sherlock-holmes-sherlock-bbc-gif-12224940988888083538
https://tenor.com/view/introduction-sherlock-benedict-cumberbatch-sherlock-holmes-sherlock-bbc-gif-12224940988888083538
im just learnin
im just learnin
i sense a kind of animosity towards ohan. is there some lore there?
i sense a kind of animosity towards ohan. is there some lore there?
good read. what is really the difference between trading perps 5 mins 15 mins 1h? just volatility? and what is really the difference between btc, eth, solana, etc markets? they must have different volatilities and perhaps liquidity, but that's it right? essentially still the same binary options contract?
good read. what is really the difference between trading perps 5 mins 15 mins 1h? just volatility? and what is really the difference between btc, eth, solana, etc markets? they must have different volatilities and perhaps liquidity, but that's it right? essentially still the same binary options contract?
i wonder about the testing part. you'd need a lot of data. do you collect it yourself or get it somewhere? then there is the whole problem of overfitting, as you lean into yourself. polymarket doesnt have a paper trading part to their api right? so we gotta build allat manually i see
i wonder about the testing part. you'd need a lot of data. do you collect it yourself or get it somewhere? then there is the whole problem of overfitting, as you lean into yourself. polymarket doesnt have a paper trading part to their api right? so we gotta build allat manually i see
basically he posts delayed alpha for engagement and growth, but the fundamentals and ideas help people like me understand how to think in general?
basically he posts delayed alpha for engagement and growth, but the fundamentals and ideas help people like me understand how to think in general?
thank you, will go read it now
thank you, will go read it now
nothing shows up on X for me
nothing shows up on X for me
ive seen a lot of those X posts though i feel like they sensationalise things because some of the suggested ideas seem like they would be totally arbed out
ive seen a lot of those X posts though i feel like they sensationalise things because some of the suggested ideas seem like they would be totally arbed out
so the odds are basically against MM on pm?
so the odds are basically against MM on pm?
so in the bot field, what kinds of strats even still work? MM and latency arb?
so in the bot field, what kinds of strats even still work? MM and latency arb?
reverse copy traders? as in, they analyse ohan and then formulate a strategy based on what he could most likely be doing?
reverse copy traders? as in, they analyse ohan and then formulate a strategy based on what he could most likely be doing?
how would you guys split the crypto 5 min up down market into? just broadly. there's market makers, there's takers, and takers all have their own strategies? are there categories in that?
how would you guys split the crypto 5 min up down market into? just broadly. there's market makers, there's takers, and takers all have their own strategies? are there categories in that?
it's impossible not to be a taker if you arent a market maker right?
it's impossible not to be a taker if you arent a market maker right?
so fees are the edge killer on crypto 5 min up down eh?
so fees are the edge killer on crypto 5 min up down eh?
what constitutes a good model? its predictive power? its latency? its architecture? its logic or implementation of mathematical theory?
what constitutes a good model? its predictive power? its latency? its architecture? its logic or implementation of mathematical theory?
fascinating
fascinating
so after friday we will see if your hypothesis is correct?
so after friday we will see if your hypothesis is correct?
but to be that, you must have access to information faster than the rest right?
but to be that, you must have access to information faster than the rest right?
fascinating
fascinating
i just saw on leaderboard that bonereaper is 10th in crypto, he's a big shot eh? he does market making too? or he is the adverse selection to market makers?
i just saw on leaderboard that bonereaper is 10th in crypto, he's a big shot eh? he does market making too? or he is the adverse selection to market makers?
wish i had context on who ohan and bonereaper are
wish i had context on who ohan and bonereaper are
who is ohan and why does he keep losing 10k
who is ohan and why does he keep losing 10k
what is the taker delay? purpose delay for takers? is this new update delaying more than it already was then?
what is the taker delay? purpose delay for takers? is this new update delaying more than it already was then?
what exploit happened before? sorry im new
what exploit happened before? sorry im new
help me understand what this means 😭
help me understand what this means 😭
so takers are delayed, how does this help you, are you a maker or market maker or something?
so takers are delayed, how does this help you, are you a maker or market maker or something?
what does this new update do exactly? like how does it affect you here? im curious
what does this new update do exactly? like how does it affect you here? im curious
anyone here trade hk and can tell me what happened
anyone here trade hk and can tell me what happened
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