聊天记录
共 14 条，显示第 1-14 条
Market Title: What will be the highest temperature in Beijing on June 14, 2026?
Result: Yes: The temperature is 28°C. No: The temperature is not 28°C.
Market Description: This market forecasts the highest temperature in Beijing on June 14, 2026.
Suggested Resolution Standard: This market will resolve to the range of highest temperatures (in degrees Celsius) recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport (PEK) on June 14, 2026.
Resolution Source: This market's resolution source will be Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded by the Beijing Capital International Airport weather station on that day (to be finalized), which can be viewed here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/PEK
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar, and then switch between "°F" and "°C" in the "Temperature" settings.
This market cannot be rated "Yes" until all data for the day is finalized.
This market determination is based on whole degrees Celsius (e.g., 28°C). Therefore, market determination will use this level of precision.
Any temperature corrections recorded after the data is finalized within this market period will not be considered.
Market Title: What will be the highest temperature in Beijing on June 14, 2026?
Result: Yes: The temperature is 28°C. No: The temperature is not 28°C.
Market Description: This market forecasts the highest temperature in Beijing on June 14, 2026.
Suggested Resolution Standard: This market will resolve to the range of highest temperatures (in degrees Celsius) recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport (PEK) on June 14, 2026.
Resolution Source: This market's resolution source will be Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded by the Beijing Capital International Airport weather station on that day (to be finalized), which can be viewed here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/PEK
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar, and then switch between "°F" and "°C" in the "Temperature" settings.
This market cannot be rated "Yes" until all data for the day is finalized.
This market determination is based on whole degrees Celsius (e.g., 28°C). Therefore, market determination will use this level of precision.
Any temperature corrections recorded after the data is finalized within this market period will not be considered.
Market Title
Will the Liberal Party win the next Canadian federal election by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the Liberal Party wins the most seats and forms the government in the next Canadian federal election.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official election results certified by Elections Canada.
Resolution Source
Elections Canada official website.
Market Title
Will the Liberal Party win the next Canadian federal election by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the Liberal Party wins the most seats and forms the government in the next Canadian federal election.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official election results certified by Elections Canada.
Resolution Source
Elections Canada official website.
Market Title: What will be the highest temperature in Hangzhou, China on June 12, 2026?
Result: Yes: The temperature is 32°C. No: The temperature is not 32°C.
Market Description: This market forecasts the highest temperature in Hangzhou on June 12, 2026.
Suggested Resolution Standard: This market will use the highest temperature (in degrees Celsius) recorded at Hangzhou Xiaoshan International Airport (HGH) on June 12, 2026 as the baseline for resolution calculation.
Resolution Source: The resolution source for this market is information provided by the Wunderground website. Specifically, it will use the highest temperature recorded by the Hangzhou Xiaoshan International Airport weather station on that day (to be finalized). This data can be viewed here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/hangzhou/HGH
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, please click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the temperature setting from °F to °C.
This market cannot be rated "Yes" until all data for the day is finalized.
This market determination is based on whole degrees Celsius (e.g., 32°C). Therefore, market determination will use this level of precision.
Any temperature corrections recorded after the data is finalized within this market period will not be considered.
Market Title: What will be the highest temperature in Hangzhou, China on June 12, 2026?
Result: Yes: The temperature is 32°C. No: The temperature is not 32°C.
Market Description: This market forecasts the highest temperature in Hangzhou on June 12, 2026.
Suggested Resolution Standard: This market will use the highest temperature (in degrees Celsius) recorded at Hangzhou Xiaoshan International Airport (HGH) on June 12, 2026 as the baseline for resolution calculation.
Resolution Source: The resolution source for this market is information provided by the Wunderground website. Specifically, it will use the highest temperature recorded by the Hangzhou Xiaoshan International Airport weather station on that day (to be finalized). This data can be viewed here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/hangzhou/HGH
To switch between Fahrenheit and Celsius, please click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the temperature setting from °F to °C.
This market cannot be rated "Yes" until all data for the day is finalized.
This market determination is based on whole degrees Celsius (e.g., 32°C). Therefore, market determination will use this level of precision.
Any temperature corrections recorded after the data is finalized within this market period will not be considered.
Market Title
Will the first human with a fully lab-grown organ transplant be successfully performed by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a patient receives a fully lab-grown (bioprinted) organ transplant with documented success.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Peer-reviewed case study or major medical center report.
Resolution Source
The Lancet or major university hospital announcements.
Market Title
Will the first human with a fully lab-grown organ transplant be successfully performed by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a patient receives a fully lab-grown (bioprinted) organ transplant with documented success.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Peer-reviewed case study or major medical center report.
Resolution Source
The Lancet or major university hospital announcements.
Market Title
Will a universal flu vaccine receive full regulatory approval by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a universal influenza vaccine is approved by the FDA or EMA by June 30, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official regulatory approval announcement.
Resolution Source
FDA or European Medicines Agency (EMA).
Market Title
Will a universal flu vaccine receive full regulatory approval by June 30, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if a universal influenza vaccine is approved by the FDA or EMA by June 30, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official regulatory approval announcement.
Resolution Source
FDA or European Medicines Agency (EMA).
Market Title Will time capsule from the 20th century be opened revealing unexpected historical artifacts in 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if a major 20th-century time capsule is opened in 2026 revealing historically significant or bizarre unexpected items.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Public opening event and credible documentation.
Resolution Source Smithsonian, major museums, or historical societies.
Market Title Will time capsule from the 20th century be opened revealing unexpected historical artifacts in 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if a major 20th-century time capsule is opened in 2026 revealing historically significant or bizarre unexpected items.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Public opening event and credible documentation.
Resolution Source Smithsonian, major museums, or historical societies.
Market Title Will a new viral global challenge cause widespread public disruption in 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if a new internet-originated challenge goes viral and causes documented widespread public disruption, injuries, or government warnings in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Multiple countries issue official warnings or reports.
Resolution Source CDC, WHO, or international news agencies.
Market Title Will a new viral global challenge cause widespread public disruption in 2026?
Outcomes Yes No
Market Description This market resolves Yes if a new internet-originated challenge goes viral and causes documented widespread public disruption, injuries, or government warnings in 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria Multiple countries issue official warnings or reports.
Resolution Source CDC, WHO, or international news agencies.
Market Title
Will the Super Bowl 2026 halftime show be performed by a solo female artist?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the Super Bowl LX halftime show in February 2026 is headlined by a solo female artist.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official NFL and Apple Music announcement.
Resolution Source
NFL or Super Bowl official website.
Market Title
Will the Super Bowl 2026 halftime show be performed by a solo female artist?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if the Super Bowl LX halftime show in February 2026 is headlined by a solo female artist.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official NFL and Apple Music announcement.
Resolution Source
NFL or Super Bowl official website.
Market Title
Will Beyoncé release a new studio album in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Beyoncé releases a new studio album in 2026.
Market Title
Will Beyoncé release a new studio album in 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Beyoncé releases a new studio album in 2026.
Market Title: What will be the highest temperature in Beijing, China on June 4, 2026?
Result: Yes: The temperature is 24°C. No: The temperature is not 24°C.
Market Description: This market forecasts the highest temperature in Beijing on June 4, 2026.
Suggested Resolution Standard: This market will resolve to a temperature range that includes the highest temperature (in degrees Celsius) recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport (PEK) on June 14, 2026.Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/PEK
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg,24°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Title: What will be the highest temperature in Beijing, China on June 4, 2026?
Result: Yes: The temperature is 24°C. No: The temperature is not 24°C.
Market Description: This market forecasts the highest temperature in Beijing on June 4, 2026.
Suggested Resolution Standard: This market will resolve to a temperature range that includes the highest temperature (in degrees Celsius) recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport (PEK) on June 14, 2026.Resolution Source The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/PEK
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market cannot resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg,24°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Title
Will autonomous vehicles achieve Level 5 in major US cities by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if fully driverless (Level 5) autonomous vehicles operate commercially in at least 3 major US cities.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Regulatory approval and commercial operation.
Resolution Source
California DMV, Waymo, or Cruise reports.
Market Title
Will autonomous vehicles achieve Level 5 in major US cities by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if fully driverless (Level 5) autonomous vehicles operate commercially in at least 3 major US cities.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Regulatory approval and commercial operation.
Resolution Source
California DMV, Waymo, or Cruise reports.
Market Title
Will Meta release Llama 4 by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Meta publicly releases Llama 4 or its next major open-source model by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Meta AI announcement.
Resolution Source
Meta AI blog.
Market Title
Will Meta release Llama 4 by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Meta publicly releases Llama 4 or its next major open-source model by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Official Meta AI announcement.
Resolution Source
Meta AI blog.
Market Title
Will Google DeepMind release a new Gemini model more powerful than GPT-4 by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Google releases a Gemini model that outperforms GPT-4 on major benchmarks by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Independent benchmark comparisons.
Resolution Source
Google DeepMind announcements and LMSYS Arena.
Market Title
Will Google DeepMind release a new Gemini model more powerful than GPT-4 by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if Google releases a Gemini model that outperforms GPT-4 on major benchmarks by December 31, 2026.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Independent benchmark comparisons.
Resolution Source
Google DeepMind announcements and LMSYS Arena.
Market Title
Will AI-generated video surpass Hollywood-level realism by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if AI video generation tools can consistently produce full-length movies indistinguishable from professional Hollywood productions by expert evaluation.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Blind tests and industry consensus.
Resolution Source
Reports from Hollywood studios or major film technology reviews.
Market Title
Will AI-generated video surpass Hollywood-level realism by December 31, 2026?
Outcomes
Yes No
Market Description
This market resolves Yes if AI video generation tools can consistently produce full-length movies indistinguishable from professional Hollywood productions by expert evaluation.
Proposed Resolution Criteria
Blind tests and industry consensus.
Resolution Source
Reports from Hollywood studios or major film technology reviews.
Polymarket