秋田预测市场 · Discord 审计

15 分钟 BTC 市场因 Gamma 效应引发交易策略分歧

2026-06-22 · Kalshi · 22 条相关讨论

Goat 2026-06-21 22:19:03

Ehh I’m still skeptical. You need to front run a 3 cent move minimum (2 cent taker 1 cent spread) just to breakeven. The way the brti is calculated there’s almost no singular big price jumps in individual exchanges that can meaningful predict a 3-4 cent move minimum. But I could be wrong, especially around the opening of the market when gamma is highest at the strike price. Idk. I never managed to even front run price but that could be a skill issue

Ehh I’m still skeptical. You need to front run a 3 cent move minimum (2 cent taker 1 cent spread) just to breakeven. The way the brti is calculated there’s almost no singular big price jumps in individual exchanges that can meaningful predict a 3-4 cent move minimum. But I could be wrong, especially around the opening of the market when gamma is highest at the strike price. Idk. I never managed to even front run price but that could be a skill issue

skywurz 2026-06-22 01:51:18

Stop placing taker orders then 😸

Stop placing taker orders then 😸

Infinitydargon 2026-06-22 01:58:53

the 15 min btc makes no sende

the 15 min btc makes no sende

Goat 2026-06-22 03:06:24

Ahhh I’m so silly. Because you can use maker orders to exploit a millisecond price inefficiency 😭

Ahhh I’m so silly. Because you can use maker orders to exploit a millisecond price inefficiency 😭

THE SUPREME GENTLEMAN 2026-06-22 04:55:55

but it increases as time to expiration decreases

but it increases as time to expiration decreases

THE SUPREME GENTLEMAN 2026-06-22 04:56:08

so when it’s atm near the end you get massive price swings

so when it’s atm near the end you get massive price swings

THE SUPREME GENTLEMAN 2026-06-22 04:56:22

that are 100% worth placing taking orders for

that are 100% worth placing taking orders for

Goat 2026-06-22 07:04:16

Yes obviously when it’s at the money and TTE is decreasing.

Yes obviously when it’s at the money and TTE is decreasing.

Goat 2026-06-22 07:04:36

That’s not always the case. However, every 15 min market opens at the strike by definition.

That’s not always the case. However, every 15 min market opens at the strike by definition.

Goat 2026-06-22 07:05:56

The market implied probability of the yes no prices is the best definition of fair value a retail trader can calculate in my opinion. So you’re just along for the ride.

The market implied probability of the yes no prices is the best definition of fair value a retail trader can calculate in my opinion. So you’re just along for the ride.

kpj 2026-06-22 07:35:23

lol bitcoin <64000 was free for tmrw 9 am

lol bitcoin <64000 was free for tmrw 9 am

THE SUPREME GENTLEMAN 2026-06-22 07:43:52

33% of the time the final time it crosses atm is in the final 3.75min btw

33% of the time the final time it crosses atm is in the final 3.75min btw

Goat 2026-06-22 07:55:14

Interesting I’ll look into that. Still I don’t believe front running is possible I could be wrong. But even if you could, the magnitude is unreliable. The brti takes measures against single big orders for manipulation

Interesting I’ll look into that. Still I don’t believe front running is possible I could be wrong. But even if you could, the magnitude is unreliable. The brti takes measures against single big orders for manipulation

Larold 2026-06-22 08:14:02

so what’s the strat for 15 min btc?

so what’s the strat for 15 min btc?

King ッ 2026-06-22 08:17:44

Flip a coin and pray for the best

Flip a coin and pray for the best