KalshiYou wait till the votes start coming in on the day of the election and size your position accordingly.
You wait till the votes start coming in on the day of the election and size your position accordingly.
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共 28 条，显示第 1-28 条I said better I should have said *faster* and on small time scales like 15 mins the price is a random walk
I said better I should have said *faster* and on small time scales like 15 mins the price is a random walk
No the 15 min markets are ridiculously efficient. You can’t calculate fair value better than the market implied probability of the yes/no prices. You are essentially along for the ride with taker Strats. Maker Strats are a better chance but they are priced appropriately as well. I’d suggest going to a different category like elections
No the 15 min markets are ridiculously efficient. You can’t calculate fair value better than the market implied probability of the yes/no prices. You are essentially along for the ride with taker Strats. Maker Strats are a better chance but they are priced appropriately as well. I’d suggest going to a different category like elections
Definitely but I don’t think it was any easier 6 months ago. Bitcoin was in a different regime tho so that may be a factor if you had strats working
Definitely but I don’t think it was any easier 6 months ago. Bitcoin was in a different regime tho so that may be a factor if you had strats working
There was. I started downloading orderbook data in January there already was institutions involved
There was. I started downloading orderbook data in January there already was institutions involved
I would recommend looking into other markets like US elections. The crypto markets are brutal and lightning fast
I would recommend looking into other markets like US elections. The crypto markets are brutal and lightning fast
Interesting I’ll look into that. Still I don’t believe front running is possible I could be wrong. But even if you could, the magnitude is unreliable. The brti takes measures against single big orders for manipulation
Interesting I’ll look into that. Still I don’t believe front running is possible I could be wrong. But even if you could, the magnitude is unreliable. The brti takes measures against single big orders for manipulation
The market implied probability of the yes no prices is the best definition of fair value a retail trader can calculate in my opinion. So you’re just along for the ride.
The market implied probability of the yes no prices is the best definition of fair value a retail trader can calculate in my opinion. So you’re just along for the ride.
That’s not always the case. However, every 15 min market opens at the strike by definition.
That’s not always the case. However, every 15 min market opens at the strike by definition.
Yes obviously when it’s at the money and TTE is decreasing.
Yes obviously when it’s at the money and TTE is decreasing.
Ahhh I’m so silly. Because you can use maker orders to exploit a millisecond price inefficiency 😭
Ahhh I’m so silly. Because you can use maker orders to exploit a millisecond price inefficiency 😭
Ehh I’m still skeptical. You need to front run a 3 cent move minimum (2 cent taker 1 cent spread) just to breakeven. The way the brti is calculated there’s almost no singular big price jumps in individual exchanges that can meaningful predict a 3-4 cent move minimum. But I could be wrong, especially around the opening of the market when gamma is highest at the strike price. Idk. I never managed to even front run price but that could be a skill issue
Ehh I’m still skeptical. You need to front run a 3 cent move minimum (2 cent taker 1 cent spread) just to breakeven. The way the brti is calculated there’s almost no singular big price jumps in individual exchanges that can meaningful predict a 3-4 cent move minimum. But I could be wrong, especially around the opening of the market when gamma is highest at the strike price. Idk. I never managed to even front run price but that could be a skill issue
I’m calling bs. Taker fees kill most scalping strats
I’m calling bs. Taker fees kill most scalping strats
What will the fees look like for perps? <@&1432453406018113596>
What will the fees look like for perps? <@&1432453406018113596>
What he said isn’t even true there’s about the same liquidity as there was before perps
What he said isn’t even true there’s about the same liquidity as there was before perps
No lol there is plenty of liquidity for retail traders
No lol there is plenty of liquidity for retail traders
That’s cause they’re smart
That’s cause they’re smart
Much much slower. You can get Coinbase BTC data and it’s still slower than the yes no prices readjusting.
Much much slower. You can get Coinbase BTC data and it’s still slower than the yes no prices readjusting.
Everyday I’m astonished at some of the things I read here
Everyday I’m astonished at some of the things I read here
Is your account public?
Is your account public?
Bro has Elliot Rodgers as his pfp we’re cooked
Bro has Elliot Rodgers as his pfp we’re cooked
Ehh I’d be wary. I think it’ll hover in the 60-65 range.
Ehh I’d be wary. I think it’ll hover in the 60-65 range.
Waitlisted 😔
Waitlisted 😔
Oh yeah? Wanna take a bet?
Oh yeah? Wanna take a bet?
lol no
lol no
BTC is in a contractionary period for like the next year. Start buying at any price under 70k imo. Next top is probably circa 150k in the next two years ish. And a lot of that volume on the 15min markets are MMs.
BTC is in a contractionary period for like the next year. Start buying at any price under 70k imo. Next top is probably circa 150k in the next two years ish. And a lot of that volume on the 15min markets are MMs.
Anybody else notice weekends being easier due to the lack of MMs?
Anybody else notice weekends being easier due to the lack of MMs?
You could just cash out at a lower threshold or avoid periods of high volatility
You could just cash out at a lower threshold or avoid periods of high volatility