秋田预测市场 · Discord 审计

5分钟市场操纵成本与盈亏讨论

2026-07-22 · Polymarket · 42 条相关讨论

Hundt 2026-07-22 17:14:47

<@895912129578811413> do you know what it does approximately cost to manip the 5m market on low liquidity hours for a manip? Im really wondering what profit they must make to cancel out the risk of the manip

<@895912129578811413> do you know what it does approximately cost to manip the 5m market on low liquidity hours for a manip? Im really wondering what profit they must make to cancel out the risk of the manip

richlb 2026-07-22 17:17:09

1000-10000 I think

1000-10000 I think

Hundt 2026-07-22 17:17:22

thx ^^

thx ^^

Hundt 2026-07-22 17:18:10

Im not sure man. I have the feeling, that it also just could be that big players with well known wallets do it from time to time or per algo. It mustnt be that new fresh wallet.

Im not sure man. I have the feeling, that it also just could be that big players with well known wallets do it from time to time or per algo. It mustnt be that new fresh wallet.

Hundt 2026-07-22 17:18:13

But no idea

But no idea

Nemo 2026-07-22 17:19:04

Only?

Only?

Nemo 2026-07-22 17:19:36

He pumps prices then places big bids/ask so no one can change the outcome last second

He pumps prices then places big bids/ask so no one can change the outcome last second

richlb 2026-07-22 17:24:33

The real cost is price moving while you’re manipulating. Like you pile into BTC, then BTC moves tens of bucks right after the next minute opens. Fee drag isn’t that big.

The real cost is price moving while you’re manipulating. Like you pile into BTC, then BTC moves tens of bucks right after the next minute opens. Fee drag isn’t that big.

Nemo 2026-07-22 17:26:32

I think it costs him around 0.02% fees on market buys

I think it costs him around 0.02% fees on market buys

poor scientist 2026-07-22 17:26:47

How long do they even have to be exposed for

How long do they even have to be exposed for

poor scientist 2026-07-22 17:27:00

I mean i assume you can pull it off in like less than 1s

I mean i assume you can pull it off in like less than 1s

Nemo 2026-07-22 17:27:24

He sells his port at 99c then buys 1c so he can max extract

He sells his port at 99c then buys 1c so he can max extract

Nemo 2026-07-22 17:27:30

<:scam:1479898552590270565> <:scam:1479898552590270565>

<:scam:1479898552590270565> <:scam:1479898552590270565>

Hundt 2026-07-22 17:28:35

It seems like they also loose quite often... more often than I thought

It seems like they also loose quite often... more often than I thought

Hundt 2026-07-22 17:28:52

pnl around 20-40% most more qround 20

pnl around 20-40% most more qround 20

poor scientist 2026-07-22 17:28:56

i don’t think manipulators are that profitable either

i don’t think manipulators are that profitable either

poor scientist 2026-07-22 17:29:02

Most probably lose actually

Most probably lose actually

poor scientist 2026-07-22 17:29:12

It’s just a lot of money gets lost to fees

It’s just a lot of money gets lost to fees

Hundt 2026-07-22 17:29:34

Nemo the true og manip

Nemo the true og manip

poor scientist 2026-07-22 17:29:36

Didn’t know you were very smart

Didn’t know you were very smart

poor scientist 2026-07-22 17:29:41

like your a bug talking to me

like your a bug talking to me

Nemo 2026-07-22 17:29:42

High volume > less fees Thats why it doesn't cost him much

High volume > less fees Thats why it doesn't cost him much

poor scientist 2026-07-22 17:29:46

i should squash you and eat you

i should squash you and eat you

Nemo 2026-07-22 17:30:05

1 million market buy costs him only 200$ fees

1 million market buy costs him only 200$ fees

poor scientist 2026-07-22 17:30:09

betting against manops is profitable

betting against manops is profitable

Nemo 2026-07-22 17:30:23

Why don't u make a bot like that

Why don't u make a bot like that

Hundt 2026-07-22 17:30:27

It seems more it costs, because they play against each other fromtime to time. And sometimes btc just doesnt play to their rules

It seems more it costs, because they play against each other fromtime to time. And sometimes btc just doesnt play to their rules

poor scientist 2026-07-22 17:30:38

well any good fair can bet against

well any good fair can bet against

Nemo 2026-07-22 17:30:41

Very rarely btc doesn't

Very rarely btc doesn't

poor scientist 2026-07-22 17:30:47

the real question is when do you bet against

the real question is when do you bet against

Hundt 2026-07-22 17:31:08

Sometimes they buy early in a 5m market. But than btc moves and it maybe just isnt worth to pump it to the other direction

Sometimes they buy early in a 5m market. But than btc moves and it maybe just isnt worth to pump it to the other direction

Nemo 2026-07-22 17:31:40

You can

You can

Nemo 2026-07-22 17:31:44

Its not hard

Its not hard

Hundt 2026-07-22 17:31:52

explain

explain

Nemo 2026-07-22 17:32:12

Fees are high yes, but not if you have nice volume

Fees are high yes, but not if you have nice volume

Nemo 2026-07-22 17:32:35

You get a tier on binance for volume which means high volume = less dees

You get a tier on binance for volume which means high volume = less dees

Hundt 2026-07-22 17:32:35

but manips dont have nice volume if they change wallets

but manips dont have nice volume if they change wallets