KalshiI flipped my 2K loss to a $600 loss so yay I guess.
I flipped my 2K loss to a $600 loss so yay I guess.
LarryorBarry参与话题 6消息总数 106
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共 106 条，显示第 1-50 条Republican governor is over. Marx has won.
Republican governor is over. Marx has won.
I haven't analyzed this at all, but my gut tells me that Stewart would not have a very good shot to win.
I haven't analyzed this at all, but my gut tells me that Stewart would not have a very good shot to win.
The politician part is extremely relevant. It's like if I said there was a 20%+ chance somebody would eat somebody if they could get away with it, and I didn't mention that they were a cannibal.
The politician part is extremely relevant. It's like if I said there was a 20%+ chance somebody would eat somebody if they could get away with it, and I didn't mention that they were a cannibal.
ok, I'm a Marxist now.
ok, I'm a Marxist now.
I'm not paying 95c no years out though!
I'm not paying 95c no years out though!
I guess you could argue that she already tried running for president once and did a bad job of it, then she was handed the nomination and didn't do anything amazing with that either. It's hard to come up with a good argument for why she wins beyond inertia
I guess you could argue that she already tried running for president once and did a bad job of it, then she was handed the nomination and didn't do anything amazing with that either. It's hard to come up with a good argument for why she wins beyond inertia
I don't tend to hold positions this far out. She's priced low?
I don't tend to hold positions this far out. She's priced low?
well sure, but polling the highest doesn't mean a pathway to winning the presidency. I just think we can assume any politician that thinks they have a 5% chance of winning (and their odds don't go up if they wait a cycle) is going to run.
well sure, but polling the highest doesn't mean a pathway to winning the presidency. I just think we can assume any politician that thinks they have a 5% chance of winning (and their odds don't go up if they wait a cycle) is going to run.
Maybe. Or one might assume that in a scenario where Harris has more than a 5% chance of winning the presidency, she will definitely run, so they wouldn't pay more for her to win based on this. You can tell me if it moves the market or not.
Maybe. Or one might assume that in a scenario where Harris has more than a 5% chance of winning the presidency, she will definitely run, so they wouldn't pay more for her to win based on this. You can tell me if it moves the market or not.
Seemed pretty obvious she was running.
Seemed pretty obvious she was running.
Nice insight
Nice insight
Anybody know more about that Boulder drop that marx gained three votes from?
Anybody know more about that Boulder drop that marx gained three votes from?
The middle of the night counting crew might be slower
The middle of the night counting crew might be slower
You got an opinion on Kirkmeyer/Marx?
You got an opinion on Kirkmeyer/Marx?
On a positive note in L.A. I appeciate Pratt giving every guy a taste of what it's like to be a woman on the dating scene. The town might need to get a restraining order against him.
On a positive note in L.A. I appeciate Pratt giving every guy a taste of what it's like to be a woman on the dating scene. The town might need to get a restraining order against him.
real question, will my "for you" twitter feed ever return to normal... or at least it's more normal crap, or will it be election deniers until the end of time?
real question, will my "for you" twitter feed ever return to normal... or at least it's more normal crap, or will it be election deniers until the end of time?
Maybe they can just pivot to this being Raman cheating, not the democratic party.
Maybe they can just pivot to this being Raman cheating, not the democratic party.
I don't spend enough time in this forum, so I don't know if you are just joking around, or you actually believe this stuff.
I don't spend enough time in this forum, so I don't know if you are just joking around, or you actually believe this stuff.
there you go
there you go
she didn't. Now provide evidence to the contrary
she didn't. Now provide evidence to the contrary
If the democrats ever get back in power, they should make a law that it is a crime punishable by jail time for somebody to intentionally mislead the public regarding election fraud. I want all those Pratt intentional fraud liars in jail...it is a version of treason in my opinion. We can limit it to politicians I guess.
If the democrats ever get back in power, they should make a law that it is a crime punishable by jail time for somebody to intentionally mislead the public regarding election fraud. I want all those Pratt intentional fraud liars in jail...it is a version of treason in my opinion. We can limit it to politicians I guess.
the remaining ballots are harder
the remaining ballots are harder
What if a meteorite hit and destroyed everybody on planet Earth besides Pratt. Would he become mayor of L.A. in that scenario?
What if a meteorite hit and destroyed everybody on planet Earth besides Pratt. Would he become mayor of L.A. in that scenario?
You don't have to be a liberal to vote for Nithya. Remember she's the only remaining candidate that didn't burn down everybody's house.
You don't have to be a liberal to vote for Nithya. Remember she's the only remaining candidate that didn't burn down everybody's house.
Or when democrats get in power they can convict all of the republicans that did this, to send a message to future officials that your fraudulent actions will have consequences. I'm sure they won't for whatever reasons.
Or when democrats get in power they can convict all of the republicans that did this, to send a message to future officials that your fraudulent actions will have consequences. I'm sure they won't for whatever reasons.
I'm not surprised. DDHQ is not as concerned as others about being wrong. I think they've made far more questionable calls than this one.
I'm not surprised. DDHQ is not as concerned as others about being wrong. I think they've made far more questionable calls than this one.
I would be pretty surprised if that race is called tomorrow
I would be pretty surprised if that race is called tomorrow
I'm not following it that well, but I feel like it's way closer than the mayor race, and especially because it's easier to see a scenario where Steyer catches up. Late ballots could help him, so they need more confidence that the ballot count is complete. Extra ballots weren't going to help Pratt.
I'm not following it that well, but I feel like it's way closer than the mayor race, and especially because it's easier to see a scenario where Steyer catches up. Late ballots could help him, so they need more confidence that the ballot count is complete. Extra ballots weren't going to help Pratt.
Just because decision desk called it doesn't mean it will close.
Just because decision desk called it doesn't mean it will close.
Sir, I'm quite old. Crypto is a foreign language to me.
Sir, I'm quite old. Crypto is a foreign language to me.
I'd have 50K if my deposit from 5 days ago and had gone through. Slow.
I'd have 50K if my deposit from 5 days ago and had gone through. Slow.
I have $26 in cash
I have $26 in cash
If I needed to use a $200,000 bill to reach for it, that might be tough.
If I needed to use a $200,000 bill to reach for it, that might be tough.
maybe they could resolve in a staggered format?
maybe they could resolve in a staggered format?
I might have gone too high. I don't know their unpublished rules, but I think I used to get under 20K. I went over that
I might have gone too high. I don't know their unpublished rules, but I think I used to get under 20K. I went over that
hurry man lol i need to know where to park my cash...which granted is not much since kalshi is taking a week for my deposit
hurry man lol i need to know where to park my cash...which granted is not much since kalshi is taking a week for my deposit
so these are the ones that will resolve?
so these are the ones that will resolve?
I thought some of them required it to get to 95%
I thought some of them required it to get to 95%
i don't know which markets are covered by which rules, I find it confusing
i don't know which markets are covered by which rules, I find it confusing
any good ones still at 99c?
any good ones still at 99c?
real question...we expect which markets to close tonight, and why? thanks
real question...we expect which markets to close tonight, and why? thanks
I think what you don't realize is that only a handful of ignorant MAGA people actually think there was fraud. I don't want to comment on Trump specifically, since his brain is fried, but for instance Ron DeSantis is essentially lying to you when he says there was fraud. He knows there is not. You are in a bubble of brainwashed people, and it's to you to find your way out. If you want help, there are people here that will help you. If you don't, then you will keep losing your bets and giving us money.
I think what you don't realize is that only a handful of ignorant MAGA people actually think there was fraud. I don't want to comment on Trump specifically, since his brain is fried, but for instance Ron DeSantis is essentially lying to you when he says there was fraud. He knows there is not. You are in a bubble of brainwashed people, and it's to you to find your way out. If you want help, there are people here that will help you. If you don't, then you will keep losing your bets and giving us money.
Well Pete I can accuse you of murdering my mother, and file a police report, and start an investigation that could take months, but me doing all of those things doesn't actually give any reason to think there is anything legitimate about any of it.
Well Pete I can accuse you of murdering my mother, and file a police report, and start an investigation that could take months, but me doing all of those things doesn't actually give any reason to think there is anything legitimate about any of it.
Did you know that you can give people the death penalty and execute them and all you need is there not to be reasonable doubt? Notice unreasonable doubt is not a reason that you can't fry them. There is no reasonable doubt that this election was fair. What is also clear beyond a reasonable doubt is that republican leadership is intentionally lying to try to provoke stupid people into thinking otherwise and that is at least an impeachable offense, and should be grounds for prosecution.
Did you know that you can give people the death penalty and execute them and all you need is there not to be reasonable doubt? Notice unreasonable doubt is not a reason that you can't fry them. There is no reasonable doubt that this election was fair. What is also clear beyond a reasonable doubt is that republican leadership is intentionally lying to try to provoke stupid people into thinking otherwise and that is at least an impeachable offense, and should be grounds for prosecution.
Not sure I agree, but we'll see
Not sure I agree, but we'll see
what do you mean?
what do you mean?
That wasn't eliminating rep.
That wasn't eliminating rep.
I would think they'd wait one more day after that?
I would think they'd wait one more day after that?
At what percentage do you not have to worry about curing ballots? I assume she'll get there?
At what percentage do you not have to worry about curing ballots? I assume she'll get there?
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