How much do people usually move up in thr market when they announce they are running
How much do people usually move up in thr market when they announce they are running
2026-07-02 · Kalshi · 31 条相关讨论
How much do people usually move up in thr market when they announce they are running
How much do people usually move up in thr market when they announce they are running
Shes running
Shes running
Seemed pretty obvious she was running.
Seemed pretty obvious she was running.
yea i dont think there was any doubt if she was running or not.
yea i dont think there was any doubt if she was running or not.
Uncertainty should move it like 1% right?
Uncertainty should move it like 1% right?
Removing it i mean
Removing it i mean
Maybe. Or one might assume that in a scenario where Harris has more than a 5% chance of winning the presidency, she will definitely run, so they wouldn't pay more for her to win based on this. You can tell me if it moves the market or not.
Maybe. Or one might assume that in a scenario where Harris has more than a 5% chance of winning the presidency, she will definitely run, so they wouldn't pay more for her to win based on this. You can tell me if it moves the market or not.
She will move down when she announces her candidacy. Buy the rumor, sell the news. Her 2020 campaign was baaad.
She will move down when she announces her candidacy. Buy the rumor, sell the news. Her 2020 campaign was baaad.
Idk about that, but after 2024, it did seem like she wouldn't even be trying again. Over the last few months she's made it fairly obvious she is going to be trying again imo, which makes sense when you think about her age. She would most likely be in her 70s before she gets another shot
Idk about that, but after 2024, it did seem like she wouldn't even be trying again. Over the last few months she's made it fairly obvious she is going to be trying again imo, which makes sense when you think about her age. She would most likely be in her 70s before she gets another shot
the person who consistently polls the highest you mean
the person who consistently polls the highest you mean
well sure, but polling the highest doesn't mean a pathway to winning the presidency. I just think we can assume any politician that thinks they have a 5% chance of winning (and their odds don't go up if they wait a cycle) is going to run.
well sure, but polling the highest doesn't mean a pathway to winning the presidency. I just think we can assume any politician that thinks they have a 5% chance of winning (and their odds don't go up if they wait a cycle) is going to run.
kamala is 100% to run
kamala is 100% to run
i think thats baked into the odds
i think thats baked into the odds
I don't tend to hold positions this far out. She's priced low?
I don't tend to hold positions this far out. She's priced low?
i mean you can argue structurally she's not gonna win it, fine
i mean you can argue structurally she's not gonna win it, fine
but is that a justification for buying 95c Ns on the person leading most polls?
but is that a justification for buying 95c Ns on the person leading most polls?
its weird, because theta is such a big factor, I look at her dem odds being 7.7 and I think yeah sure, I can sell that in two years for maybe 20
its weird, because theta is such a big factor, I look at her dem odds being 7.7 and I think yeah sure, I can sell that in two years for maybe 20
I guess you could argue that she already tried running for president once and did a bad job of it, then she was handed the nomination and didn't do anything amazing with that either. It's hard to come up with a good argument for why she wins beyond inertia
I guess you could argue that she already tried running for president once and did a bad job of it, then she was handed the nomination and didn't do anything amazing with that either. It's hard to come up with a good argument for why she wins beyond inertia
have you considered its her turn?
have you considered its her turn?
really though, i think it comes down to anyone looking at a kamala position rn isn't thinking she's actually gonna win
really though, i think it comes down to anyone looking at a kamala position rn isn't thinking she's actually gonna win