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tito参与话题 3消息总数 15
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共 15 条，显示第 1-15 条https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-buenos-aires-on-july-9-2026 <@1402701322775695391> there is a problem with this market !
https://polymarket.com/event/highest-temperature-in-buenos-aires-on-july-9-2026 <@1402701322775695391> there is a problem with this market !
another fiasco for weather markets? @bel | Polymarket
another fiasco for weather markets? @bel | Polymarket
same here! <@1402701322775695391>
same here! <@1402701322775695391>
d2s are back. A great decision by the Polymarket team that will benefit all traders and the platform. Thank you very much.
d2s are back. A great decision by the Polymarket team that will benefit all traders and the platform. Thank you very much.
hopefully
hopefully
If you want to implement only D1, at least make sure the markets open one day earlier in each city based on its local time. Otherwise, these kinds of problems occur, and you end up with cities that are essentially operating on D0. Anyway... they say D2 markets are coming back eventually. I hope it's soon.
If you want to implement only D1, at least make sure the markets open one day earlier in each city based on its local time. Otherwise, these kinds of problems occur, and you end up with cities that are essentially operating on D0. Anyway... they say D2 markets are coming back eventually. I hope it's soon.
yes, one of my favorites places. that new system really sucks. honestly and respectfully.
yes, one of my favorites places. that new system really sucks. honestly and respectfully.
yeah ! looking at volume before the fiasco and after. Now the liquidity is really concentrated in the day!
yeah ! looking at volume before the fiasco and after. Now the liquidity is really concentrated in the day!
Uncertainty decreases as the event's resolution approaches. The further you are from an event, the more uncertainty there is, the harder it is to predict, and therefore the more betting opportunities there are! Conversely, the closer you are, the easier it is to predict what will happen, and therefore the fewer real options for betting.
Uncertainty decreases as the event's resolution approaches. The further you are from an event, the more uncertainty there is, the harder it is to predict, and therefore the more betting opportunities there are! Conversely, the closer you are, the easier it is to predict what will happen, and therefore the fewer real options for betting.
Of course, less trading time means that players have to concentrate in a tighter space, which will necessarily lead to a smaller edge and ultimately a lower total volume. This decision they've made to eliminate d2 is stupid. I didn't bet on d0 until now,...
Of course, less trading time means that players have to concentrate in a tighter space, which will necessarily lead to a smaller edge and ultimately a lower total volume. This decision they've made to eliminate d2 is stupid. I didn't bet on d0 until now,...
the most important point, in my opinion, It's the insecurity that all these kinds of changes generate for traders. It takes time to develop a trading system, and when you make these kinds of abrupt changes, all you're doing is forcing your traders to start all over again. Which obviously isn't going to help the liquidity you're looking for. What fosters liquidity is the predictability of a system, its stability. That's why last month's major debacle wiped out a large part of the liquidity. Money wants stability and predictability.
the most important point, in my opinion, It's the insecurity that all these kinds of changes generate for traders. It takes time to develop a trading system, and when you make these kinds of abrupt changes, all you're doing is forcing your traders to start all over again. Which obviously isn't going to help the liquidity you're looking for. What fosters liquidity is the predictability of a system, its stability. That's why last month's major debacle wiped out a large part of the liquidity. Money wants stability and predictability.
I'm in the top15 of weather markets pnl, and 60% of my profits comes from D+2.
I'm in the top15 of weather markets pnl, and 60% of my profits comes from D+2.
lol. so you need to improve your models.
lol. so you need to improve your models.
It's a bad decision. Cutting the trading window by one day is very bad news. It leaves much less room to trade, precisely when uncertainty is highest, and therefore when there's the most potential. This was one of the features that made Polymarket a good alternative to Kalshi; now, if it loses this, it will cease to be interesting. I don't understand why anyone requested this; it will reduce the fees generated. In short, another poor decision by the Polymarket team.
It's a bad decision. Cutting the trading window by one day is very bad news. It leaves much less room to trade, precisely when uncertainty is highest, and therefore when there's the most potential. This was one of the features that made Polymarket a good alternative to Kalshi; now, if it loses this, it will cease to be interesting. I don't understand why anyone requested this; it will reduce the fees generated. In short, another poor decision by the Polymarket team.