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天气市场交易窗口由D+2缩短至D+1引发流动性担忧

2026-06-03 · Polymarket · 15 条相关讨论

longloooong_99 2026-06-03 07:07:26

What does the part on switching data providers mean? Are we no longer using wunderground?

What does the part on switching data providers mean? Are we no longer using wunderground?

tito 2026-06-03 15:33:51

It's a bad decision. Cutting the trading window by one day is very bad news. It leaves much less room to trade, precisely when uncertainty is highest, and therefore when there's the most potential. This was one of the features that made Polymarket a good alternative to Kalshi; now, if it loses this, it will cease to be interesting. I don't understand why anyone requested this; it will reduce the fees generated. In short, another poor decision by the Polymarket team.

It's a bad decision. Cutting the trading window by one day is very bad news. It leaves much less room to trade, precisely when uncertainty is highest, and therefore when there's the most potential. This was one of the features that made Polymarket a good alternative to Kalshi; now, if it loses this, it will cease to be interesting. I don't understand why anyone requested this; it will reduce the fees generated. In short, another poor decision by the Polymarket team.

FixedStar 2026-06-03 15:54:25

This is a great decision that will concentrate liquidity.

This is a great decision that will concentrate liquidity.

FixedStar 2026-06-03 15:55:47

Based on my six months of trading experience, I've concluded that there's absolutely no possibility of accurately predicting the market temperature 1 degree Celsius or 2 degrees Fahrenheit 48 hours from now. Even God could only guess.

Based on my six months of trading experience, I've concluded that there's absolutely no possibility of accurately predicting the market temperature 1 degree Celsius or 2 degrees Fahrenheit 48 hours from now. Even God could only guess.

EEEHHH 2026-06-03 16:04:16

There's no such thing as concentrating liquidity... it's not like a fixed pool

There's no such thing as concentrating liquidity... it's not like a fixed pool

EEEHHH 2026-06-03 16:06:49

You are just one of those traders who only try to make prediction during the last few hours. You'll see what a shitty orderbook you are working with soon

You are just one of those traders who only try to make prediction during the last few hours. You'll see what a shitty orderbook you are working with soon

EEEHHH 2026-06-03 16:14:35

~20 cities we were doing fine, ~40 cities with D+4 we were doing fine. Until they removed LP rewards and cut to D+2

~20 cities we were doing fine, ~40 cities with D+4 we were doing fine. Until they removed LP rewards and cut to D+2

Kal Chopra 2026-06-03 16:14:49

Which data source is going to be used <@1361217824776786031>? Is it still Wunderground or something else?

Which data source is going to be used <@1361217824776786031>? Is it still Wunderground or something else?

FixedStar 2026-06-03 16:16:06

Because of the ability to accurately predict in the D+2 market, it is also possible to accurately predict in the D+1 market.

Because of the ability to accurately predict in the D+2 market, it is also possible to accurately predict in the D+1 market.

FixedStar 2026-06-03 16:19:56

I also have a compromise suggestion: we can retain the D+2 market, as some people prefer a more distant market.

I also have a compromise suggestion: we can retain the D+2 market, as some people prefer a more distant market.

EEEHHH 2026-06-03 16:20:33

D+1 means you have less than 24 hours to accumulate orderbook

D+1 means you have less than 24 hours to accumulate orderbook

EEEHHH 2026-06-03 16:21:18

I personally track MM bot volume and I can tell you they all disappeared over the past week

I personally track MM bot volume and I can tell you they all disappeared over the past week

tito 2026-06-03 16:23:01

I'm in the top15 of weather markets pnl, and 60% of my profits comes from D+2.

I'm in the top15 of weather markets pnl, and 60% of my profits comes from D+2.

EEEHHH 2026-06-03 16:24:04

D+2 is where you get most of the edge

D+2 is where you get most of the edge

tito 2026-06-03 16:30:43

the most important point, in my opinion, It's the insecurity that all these kinds of changes generate for traders. It takes time to develop a trading system, and when you make these kinds of abrupt changes, all you're doing is forcing your traders to start all over again. Which obviously isn't going to help the liquidity you're looking for. What fosters liquidity is the predictability of a system, its stability. That's why last month's major debacle wiped out a large part of the liquidity. Money wants stability and predictability.

the most important point, in my opinion, It's the insecurity that all these kinds of changes generate for traders. It takes time to develop a trading system, and when you make these kinds of abrupt changes, all you're doing is forcing your traders to start all over again. Which obviously isn't going to help the liquidity you're looking for. What fosters liquidity is the predictability of a system, its stability. That's why last month's major debacle wiped out a large part of the liquidity. Money wants stability and predictability.