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jim 2026-07-09 01:10:40 Kalshi

yea there's a pretty good chance they completely botch this. That's why I generally avoid the favorite pick in scenarios like this, it might not even be a fair process. Who knows

yea there's a pretty good chance they completely botch this. That's why I generally avoid the favorite pick in scenarios like this, it might not even be a fair process. Who knows

jim 2026-07-09 01:01:45 Kalshi

That’s very different

That’s very different

jim 2026-07-09 00:35:51 Kalshi

probably helps her. Being wacky/nutty doesn't seem to hurt people's chances nowadays

probably helps her. Being wacky/nutty doesn't seem to hurt people's chances nowadays

jim 2026-07-09 00:21:41 Kalshi

the fact that Bellows lost to Collins already might matter. might be unfair but that sometimes matters

the fact that Bellows lost to Collins already might matter. might be unfair but that sometimes matters

jim 2026-07-09 00:15:45 Kalshi

yea he's definitely not the favorite and I'm not really expecting him to be the guy, I just think there's a reasonable path

yea he's definitely not the favorite and I'm not really expecting him to be the guy, I just think there's a reasonable path

jim 2026-07-09 00:04:21 Kalshi

I just like the thesis of going with a safe option during a time of crisis. Very oversimplified way to think about it I suppose

I just like the thesis of going with a safe option during a time of crisis. Very oversimplified way to think about it I suppose

jim 2026-07-09 00:03:38 Kalshi

I have some money on him, have no idea if its a good bet or not

I have some money on him, have no idea if its a good bet or not

jim 2026-07-08 23:25:55 Kalshi

schumer celebrated USA's world cup loss to Belgium

schumer celebrated USA's world cup loss to Belgium

jim 2026-07-08 11:53:51 Kalshi

so a guy accused of rape is probably not going to fare any better

so a guy accused of rape is probably not going to fare any better

yea but there are rules that dictate the process, and they wouldn't change it for a candidate with a good reputation.

yea but there are rules that dictate the process, and they wouldn't change it for a candidate with a good reputation.

jim 2026-07-08 11:52:12 Kalshi

the leverage he has isn't real leverage. he has to throw himself under the bus basically to cash it in

the leverage he has isn't real leverage. he has to throw himself under the bus basically to cash it in

jim 2026-07-08 11:49:48 Kalshi

yea but hes not the decision maker for his replacement

yea but hes not the decision maker for his replacement

jim 2026-07-08 11:46:30 Kalshi

He should choose himself

He should choose himself

jim 2026-07-08 10:46:09 Kalshi

no one will support what he's doing, way too toxic, great move by them to put it out in the public

no one will support what he's doing, way too toxic, great move by them to put it out in the public

jim 2026-07-08 10:45:20 Kalshi

great move by maine dems tbh

great move by maine dems tbh

jim 2026-07-08 10:45:04 Kalshi

nope

nope

its not the same at all but I'm fine to just agree to disagree with you on this, your side is kind of a silly position to be taking

its not the same at all but I'm fine to just agree to disagree with you on this, your side is kind of a silly position to be taking

jim 2026-07-08 10:05:00 Kalshi

its a video on X if you search for the Maine Democrat account

its a video on X if you search for the Maine Democrat account

jim 2026-07-08 03:18:42 Kalshi

yea they definitely wanted him out so that wouldn't surprise me

yea they definitely wanted him out so that wouldn't surprise me

jim 2026-07-08 03:17:08 Kalshi

theres no reason to actually dig in to defend him

theres no reason to actually dig in to defend him

jim 2026-07-08 03:16:54 Kalshi

also - much different when you can replace the person vs. you're stuck with the person

also - much different when you can replace the person vs. you're stuck with the person

jim 2026-07-08 03:11:07 Kalshi

yea its a huge hill to climb, the court of public opinion has already indicted him this time so its hard to imagine how it would get discredited, and how that could happen so quickly

yea its a huge hill to climb, the court of public opinion has already indicted him this time so its hard to imagine how it would get discredited, and how that could happen so quickly

jim 2026-07-08 02:59:50 Kalshi

that's true in a tail event where he just ignores everything happening around him and decides to create a path for Collins in a kamikaze mission. But in a more practical scenario all his friends, family, and advisors would have to be giving him awful info to actually stay in

that's true in a tail event where he just ignores everything happening around him and decides to create a path for Collins in a kamikaze mission. But in a more practical scenario all his friends, family, and advisors would have to be giving him awful info to actually stay in

Maybe he digs in but beyond he deadline? I can't see it, feels like theres too much on the line and for that to happen it requires way too many people to be delusional

Maybe he digs in but beyond he deadline? I can't see it, feels like theres too much on the line and for that to happen it requires way too many people to be delusional

jim 2026-07-07 09:09:36 Kalshi

Kimmel owes us at least 3 apologies

Kimmel owes us at least 3 apologies

jim 2026-07-07 09:08:53 Kalshi

Kimmel?

Kimmel?

jim 2026-07-07 05:59:57 Kalshi

hope so, I scooped up quite a bit of it

hope so, I scooped up quite a bit of it

jim 2026-07-07 05:34:25 Kalshi

could be but was happening on the new strikes too

could be but was happening on the new strikes too