i mean, most people are P2, but I can't comprehend the thinking process behind P1 <:kekw:939703711628947487>
i mean, most people are P2, but I can't comprehend the thinking process behind P1 <:kekw:939703711628947487>
2026-07-01 · Polymarket · 164 条相关讨论
i mean, most people are P2, but I can't comprehend the thinking process behind P1 <:kekw:939703711628947487>
i mean, most people are P2, but I can't comprehend the thinking process behind P1 <:kekw:939703711628947487>
https://www.facebook.com/reel/3171410476403267/ > after [the indicated 60 days] Iran could impose fees, a power that it never had before this war began
https://www.facebook.com/reel/3171410476403267/ > after [the indicated 60 days] Iran could impose fees, a power that it never had before this war began
P2 - Yes Rules: > The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if ... > - Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran Text of the agreement: > The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America have jointly agreed ... on the following: > the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements ... for the safe passage of commercial vessels, with no charge for 60 days **only** The use of the word "only" strictly speaking codifies that **the USA shall not interfere with charges after 60 days**. To confirm this analysis, see: [ABC News](https://www.facebook.com/reel/3171410476403267): > Iran agrees to safe passage for ships with "no charge for 60 days only." **After that Iran could impose fees, a power that it never had before this war began**. [CBS News analyst](https://x.com/aaronbmaclean/status/2069484113711562870): > the signed MOU allow[s] for Iran to charge beginning after a period of 60 days [WSJ](https://www.wsj.com/opinion/iran-mou-trump-administration-strait-of-hormuz-toll-a3a310b1): > ... with no charge *for 60 days only* .... This means Iran may charge tolls after 60 days. [Former senior diplomat](https://jstreet.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Assessing-the-US-Iran-MOU-and-Prospects-for-Negotiations-1.pdf): > Section 5 of the MOU calls for Iran to open the SOH for “commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days __only__” (emphasis added). Bolstered by the provision that final arrangements for the SOH will be negotiated with Oman and other Gulf states, **this implies that after 60 days, Iran may begin to charge fees in the Strait**. [Yonhap](https://m.ajupress.com/amp/20260618130070402): > Article 5 of the MOU states, "Iran will do its utmost to ensure that commercial vessels navigating from the Persian Gulf to Oman and vice versa can do so safely and without cost for 60 days only." **This limits the free passage period to just 60 days**. [San Diego Union Tribune](https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/2026/06/29/opinion-u-s-fought-for-strait-of-hormuz-only-to-give-it-away/): > In other words, **Iran has gotten the U.S. to agree, in writing, to give Iran the option to charge fees** for safe passage after 60 days The agreement was originally briefed by the White House to reporters [with some revealing details](https://www.dailywire.com/news/iran-deal-opens-door-to-iranian-tolls-in-strait-of-hormuz): > a senior Trump administration official said there isn’t concern tolls will be charged because Gulf governments would not agree to such an arrangement. > > ... “But fundamentally toll-free passage of the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days, and **that will continue because the Persian Gulf States will never agree** to an arrangement that doesn’t permit toll-free access to the Strait of Hormuz ... In sum, **per the "60 days only" clause, the US canceled any legal right to object to transit fees after 60 days.** The US instead pinned its hopes for a Hormuz without fees on the resistance of Gulf allies. Of course, any change of heart by the USA is irrelevant to the market, as long as they formally agreed to accept transit fees at any time.
P2 - Yes Rules: > The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if ... > - Iran charging such fees is included as part of a treaty or deal formally established between the United States and Iran Text of the agreement: > The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America have jointly agreed ... on the following: > the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements ... for the safe passage of commercial vessels, with no charge for 60 days **only** The use of the word "only" strictly speaking codifies that **the USA shall not interfere with charges after 60 days**. To confirm this analysis, see: [ABC News](https://www.facebook.com/reel/3171410476403267): > Iran agrees to safe passage for ships with "no charge for 60 days only." **After that Iran could impose fees, a power that it never had before this war began**. [CBS News analyst](https://x.com/aaronbmaclean/status/2069484113711562870): > the signed MOU allow[s] for Iran to charge beginning after a period of 60 days [WSJ](https://www.wsj.com/opinion/iran-mou-trump-administration-strait-of-hormuz-toll-a3a310b1): > ... with no charge *for 60 days only* .... This means Iran may charge tolls after 60 days. [Former senior diplomat](https://jstreet.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Assessing-the-US-Iran-MOU-and-Prospects-for-Negotiations-1.pdf): > Section 5 of the MOU calls for Iran to open the SOH for “commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days __only__” (emphasis added). Bolstered by the provision that final arrangements for the SOH will be negotiated with Oman and other Gulf states, **this implies that after 60 days, Iran may begin to charge fees in the Strait**. [Yonhap](https://m.ajupress.com/amp/20260618130070402): > Article 5 of the MOU states, "Iran will do its utmost to ensure that commercial vessels navigating from the Persian Gulf to Oman and vice versa can do so safely and without cost for 60 days only." **This limits the free passage period to just 60 days**. [San Diego Union Tribune](https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/2026/06/29/opinion-u-s-fought-for-strait-of-hormuz-only-to-give-it-away/): > In other words, **Iran has gotten the U.S. to agree, in writing, to give Iran the option to charge fees** for safe passage after 60 days The agreement was originally briefed by the White House to reporters [with some revealing details](https://www.dailywire.com/news/iran-deal-opens-door-to-iranian-tolls-in-strait-of-hormuz): > a senior Trump administration official said there isn’t concern tolls will be charged because Gulf governments would not agree to such an arrangement. > > ... “But fundamentally toll-free passage of the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days, and **that will continue because the Persian Gulf States will never agree** to an arrangement that doesn’t permit toll-free access to the Strait of Hormuz ... In sum, **per the "60 days only" clause, the US canceled any legal right to object to transit fees after 60 days.** The US instead pinned its hopes for a Hormuz without fees on the resistance of Gulf allies. Of course, any change of heart by the USA is irrelevant to the market, as long as they formally agreed to accept transit fees at any time.
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi Met with Qatar’s Prime Minister in Doha, Discussed Implementation of Iran-U.S. Interim Deal - IRNA
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi Met with Qatar’s Prime Minister in Doha, Discussed Implementation of Iran-U.S. Interim Deal - IRNA
A Trilateral Meeting Between Iran, Qatar and Pakistan Was Also Held in Doha
A Trilateral Meeting Between Iran, Qatar and Pakistan Was Also Held in Doha
ISW also: https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2067786454315536563 "The MoU allows for a resumption of fee collection after 60 days"
ISW also: https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2067786454315536563 "The MoU allows for a resumption of fee collection after 60 days"
how in the world is not agreeing to something agreeing to something - the status quo on enrichment was fair, but this is poor
how in the world is not agreeing to something agreeing to something - the status quo on enrichment was fair, but this is poor
was thinking as well flipping those 1.5c worth shares, dont think its even worht it, dont think it can break 5 even
was thinking as well flipping those 1.5c worth shares, dont think its even worht it, dont think it can break 5 even
this is stronger than enrichment. you don't need to infer anything here
this is stronger than enrichment. you don't need to infer anything here
anyone else getting half-filled on market orders despite the shares being available?
anyone else getting half-filled on market orders despite the shares being available?
If your local parking garage says there will be no fees for the first 60 days of it opening, what do you think will happen after 60 days?
If your local parking garage says there will be no fees for the first 60 days of it opening, what do you think will happen after 60 days?
its quite simple, not agreeing to someting only for 60 days is not agreeing to it after
its quite simple, not agreeing to someting only for 60 days is not agreeing to it after
If I say I'll have this job for 60 days **only** it means I won't have it after 60 days
If I say I'll have this job for 60 days **only** it means I won't have it after 60 days
**Ghalibaf: According to the memorandum, free passage through the Strait of Hormuz is only for 60 days / Sovereignty of the Strait of Hormuz lies with Iran and Oman The Speaker of the Islamic Consultative Assembly in a televised interview: 🔸The text of the memorandum states that free passage through the Strait is only for 60 days. This was due to the insistence of the countries in the region and the coastal countries of the Persian Gulf, and is mainly for ships that were in that area when the war began due to the closure of the Strait. 🔸The sovereignty of the Strait of Hormuz lies with Iran and Oman, and traffic in the Strait is according to the arrangements that Iran specifies. Of course, we exchange views with the coastal countries of the Persian Gulf. 🔸Iran will not give up its rights in the Strait of Hormuz under any circumstances, and these are our territorial waters.**
**Ghalibaf: According to the memorandum, free passage through the Strait of Hormuz is only for 60 days / Sovereignty of the Strait of Hormuz lies with Iran and Oman The Speaker of the Islamic Consultative Assembly in a televised interview: 🔸The text of the memorandum states that free passage through the Strait is only for 60 days. This was due to the insistence of the countries in the region and the coastal countries of the Persian Gulf, and is mainly for ships that were in that area when the war began due to the closure of the Strait. 🔸The sovereignty of the Strait of Hormuz lies with Iran and Oman, and traffic in the Strait is according to the arrangements that Iran specifies. Of course, we exchange views with the coastal countries of the Persian Gulf. 🔸Iran will not give up its rights in the Strait of Hormuz under any circumstances, and these are our territorial waters.**
Did it say 60 days **only**?
Did it say 60 days **only**?
there, happy?
there, happy?
also to note, the MOU allows Iran to provide "maritime services". this is a very specific term. under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, coastal states may not charge tolls but they may charge for maritime services. see: https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf page 33 article 26
also to note, the MOU allows Iran to provide "maritime services". this is a very specific term. under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, coastal states may not charge tolls but they may charge for maritime services. see: https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf page 33 article 26
i am a genius
i am a genius
The US kicking and screaming/changing their mind about it but like... they pretty clearly agreed to it in the MoU
The US kicking and screaming/changing their mind about it but like... they pretty clearly agreed to it in the MoU
thonker is banned from trading for 60 days only
thonker is banned from trading for 60 days only