秋田预测市场 · Discord 审计

jjjjjjjjjjjjj参与话题 3消息总数 223

该用户的聊天记录定位。

Reset

聊天记录

共 223 条,显示第 51-100 条
jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:36:43 Polymarket

The MOU Trump signed / will sign: # Clause 4. USA undertakes to **remove its forces** from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran **within 30 days after the final deal.** Where does it say in the next paper we will do this?

The MOU Trump signed / will sign: # Clause 4. USA undertakes to **remove its forces** from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran **within 30 days after the final deal.** Where does it say in the next paper we will do this?

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:35:54 Polymarket

Whether you think it will happen or not is irrelevant to the paper that has been signed

Whether you think it will happen or not is irrelevant to the paper that has been signed

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:35:39 Polymarket

That's it. Everything else is irrelevant

That's it. Everything else is irrelevant

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:35:25 Polymarket

There is an unequivocal commitment to achieve the deal

There is an unequivocal commitment to achieve the deal

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:33:36 Polymarket

The MOU Trump signed / will sign: # Clause 4. USA undertakes to **remove its forces** from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran **within 30 days after the final deal.** # Clause 3. USA **commits to achieving the final deal** in a maximum of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent. Read for yourself: https://www.axios.com/2026/06/17/read-full-us-iran-deal-memorandum-understanding # JUST BECAUSE YOU THINK THERE WILL BE NO FINAL DEAL DOES NOT MEAN TRUMP DID NOT COMMIT TO ACHIEVING ONE. THIS IS JUST SEQUENCING, NOT CONTINGENCY

The MOU Trump signed / will sign: # Clause 4. USA undertakes to **remove its forces** from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran **within 30 days after the final deal.** # Clause 3. USA **commits to achieving the final deal** in a maximum of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent. Read for yourself: https://www.axios.com/2026/06/17/read-full-us-iran-deal-memorandum-understanding # JUST BECAUSE YOU THINK THERE WILL BE NO FINAL DEAL DOES NOT MEAN TRUMP DID NOT COMMIT TO ACHIEVING ONE. THIS IS JUST SEQUENCING, NOT CONTINGENCY

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:30:55 Polymarket

People keep smuggling in their assumptions about what will happen to the final deal and ignore the text, which clearly commits to a finalization of the final deal

People keep smuggling in their assumptions about what will happen to the final deal and ignore the text, which clearly commits to a finalization of the final deal

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:29:53 Polymarket 美军撤军条件是否构成确定性协议引发激烈辩论

The MOU Trump signed / will sign: # Clause 4. USA undertakes to **remove its forces** from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran **within 30 days after the final deal.** # Clause 3. USA **commits to achieving the final deal** in a maximum of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent. Read for yourself: https://www.axios.com/2026/06/17/read-full-us-iran-deal-memorandum-understanding

The MOU Trump signed / will sign: # Clause 4. USA undertakes to **remove its forces** from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran **within 30 days after the final deal.** # Clause 3. USA **commits to achieving the final deal** in a maximum of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent. Read for yourself: https://www.axios.com/2026/06/17/read-full-us-iran-deal-memorandum-understanding

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:26:38 Polymarket

Why not?

Why not?

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:26:09 Polymarket

Clause 3. USA commits to achieving the final deal in a maximum of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.

Clause 3. USA commits to achieving the final deal in a maximum of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:25:42 Polymarket

Why?

Why?

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:25:19 Polymarket

The MOU Trump signed / will sign: # Clause 4. USA undertakes to **remove its forces** from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran **within 30 days after the final deal.** # Clause 3. USA **commits to achieving the final deal** in a maximum of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent. Read for yourself: https://www.axios.com/2026/06/17/read-full-us-iran-deal-memorandum-understanding

The MOU Trump signed / will sign: # Clause 4. USA undertakes to **remove its forces** from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran **within 30 days after the final deal.** # Clause 3. USA **commits to achieving the final deal** in a maximum of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent. Read for yourself: https://www.axios.com/2026/06/17/read-full-us-iran-deal-memorandum-understanding

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:24:21 Polymarket

I commit to do X after Y I commit to do Y I have therefore committed to do X

I commit to do X after Y I commit to do Y I have therefore committed to do X

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:23:51 Polymarket

The MOU Trump signed / will sign: # Clause 4. USA undertakes to **remove its forces** from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran **within 30 days after the final deal.** # Clause 3. USA **commits to achieving the final deal** in a maximum of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.

The MOU Trump signed / will sign: # Clause 4. USA undertakes to **remove its forces** from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran **within 30 days after the final deal.** # Clause 3. USA **commits to achieving the final deal** in a maximum of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:22:45 Polymarket

That would be a violation of the text

That would be a violation of the text

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:22:26 Polymarket

4. USA undertakes to** remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.** 3. USA commis to achieving the final deal in a maximum of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.

4. USA undertakes to** remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal.** 3. USA commis to achieving the final deal in a maximum of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:21:40 Polymarket

4. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal. 3. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in a maximum of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.

4. The United States of America further undertakes to remove its forces from the proximity of the Islamic Republic of Iran within 30 days after the final deal. 3. The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran commit to negotiating and achieving the final deal in a maximum of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:20:42 Polymarket

i dont understand

i dont understand

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:20:36 Polymarket

if i agree to do something tomorrow. i am not currently doing it today. does that mean i have not agreed to do something

if i agree to do something tomorrow. i am not currently doing it today. does that mean i have not agreed to do something

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:18:10 Polymarket

and they have agreed to do X

and they have agreed to do X

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:18:02 Polymarket

they have agreed to do y after X

they have agreed to do y after X

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:17:51 Polymarket

And X is agreed to NOW

And X is agreed to NOW

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:17:42 Polymarket

it IS agreed to AFTER x happens

it IS agreed to AFTER x happens

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:17:14 Polymarket

<@758054272641531944>

<@758054272641531944>

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:16:53 Polymarket

I commit to go to work tomorrow (if i dont die / sun rises / hell freezes over / nuclear armaggedon doesn't happen)

I commit to go to work tomorrow (if i dont die / sun rises / hell freezes over / nuclear armaggedon doesn't happen)

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:16:19 Polymarket

There is no such thing as an unconditional commitment. Every commitment is contingent on an infinite number of variables

There is no such thing as an unconditional commitment. Every commitment is contingent on an infinite number of variables

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:15:33 Polymarket

its very big difference. announcement happens when the event itself happens. agreement can happen before the event itself

its very big difference. announcement happens when the event itself happens. agreement can happen before the event itself

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:14:03 Polymarket

this is an announcement market, not a will trump agree to market

this is an announcement market, not a will trump agree to market

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:12:25 Polymarket

I commit to do X 30 days after we finish Y I commit to finish Y Have I committed to do X?

I commit to do X 30 days after we finish Y I commit to finish Y Have I committed to do X?

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-18 03:05:39 Polymarket

https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by

https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-17 19:53:21 Polymarket

reading the rules is actually -ev here

reading the rules is actually -ev here

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-17 19:23:58 Polymarket

Finally, according to an informed member of the negotiating team speaking to IRIB, Trump did tricks on it

Finally, according to an informed member of the negotiating team speaking to IRIB, Trump did tricks on it

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-17 19:23:30 Polymarket

Furthermore, according to an informed source speaking to Fars News, Trump agreed that "the Imam of our times is the true leader of men" and pledged his allegiance to him

Furthermore, according to an informed source speaking to Fars News, Trump agreed that "the Imam of our times is the true leader of men" and pledged his allegiance to him

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-17 19:22:46 Polymarket

According to an informed source speaking to Tasnim, another amendment was an addition to the nuclear clause guaranteeing "Iran's right to withdraw from the NPT and drop at least 10 nuclear bombs on Tel Aviv within the next 3 years"

According to an informed source speaking to Tasnim, another amendment was an addition to the nuclear clause guaranteeing "Iran's right to withdraw from the NPT and drop at least 10 nuclear bombs on Tel Aviv within the next 3 years"

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-17 03:59:45 Polymarket

The agreement to that is not in the final deal

The agreement to that is not in the final deal

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-17 03:59:31 Polymarket

Yes but the agreement to that is in this one

Yes but the agreement to that is in this one

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-17 03:57:54 Polymarket

But I agree to doing X given Contract 2 IN contract 1

But I agree to doing X given Contract 2 IN contract 1

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-17 03:57:34 Polymarket

I agree to this

I agree to this

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-17 03:57:15 Polymarket

Would that make things any different?

Would that make things any different?

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-17 03:57:05 Polymarket

Suppose they did the troop withdrawal contingent on Iran diluting the uranium

Suppose they did the troop withdrawal contingent on Iran diluting the uranium

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-17 03:56:53 Polymarket

The fact that Contract 2 is a "contract" could be what is confusing you

The fact that Contract 2 is a "contract" could be what is confusing you

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-17 03:56:30 Polymarket

I have agreed to X in Contract 1, the execution hinges on Contract 2 being signed

I have agreed to X in Contract 1, the execution hinges on Contract 2 being signed

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-17 03:56:10 Polymarket

Contract 1 = MOU Contract 2 = Final deal In Contract 1, I agree that, provided Contract 2 is signed, I will do X

Contract 1 = MOU Contract 2 = Final deal In Contract 1, I agree that, provided Contract 2 is signed, I will do X

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-17 03:55:34 Polymarket

When I sign the contract, do I agree to go to work?

When I sign the contract, do I agree to go to work?

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-17 03:55:28 Polymarket

The contract itself will state: You will go to work As long as you get paid

The contract itself will state: You will go to work As long as you get paid

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-17 03:54:14 Polymarket

Does that mean I did not yet agree to go to work tomorrow?

Does that mean I did not yet agree to go to work tomorrow?

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-17 03:54:06 Polymarket

I agree to go to work tomorrow when I sign a contract, contingent on me being paid

I agree to go to work tomorrow when I sign a contract, contingent on me being paid

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-17 03:53:32 Polymarket

I agree to clause A, provided clauses XYZ are reached

I agree to clause A, provided clauses XYZ are reached

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-17 03:52:46 Polymarket

What's the problem with what I wrote?

What's the problem with what I wrote?

jjjjjjjjjjjjj 2026-06-17 03:52:35 Polymarket

You can agree to a conditional

You can agree to a conditional