PolymarketAs I'm sure you've been told, clarification means it's decided. You can disagree (I do), but it changes nothing.
As I'm sure you've been told, clarification means it's decided. You can disagree (I do), but it changes nothing.
Bromley参与话题 5消息总数 73
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共 73 条，显示第 1-50 条Have you seen how retarded they are though? We could barely establish whether or not it was an unintercepted hit before, but now it has to be a 50kg drone.
Have you seen how retarded they are though? We could barely establish whether or not it was an unintercepted hit before, but now it has to be a 50kg drone.
It couldn't be someone interpreting, which would make most X posts dangerous. Even those by journalists are skirting the "credible reporting" aspect, as they're (I would assume) not subject to editorial control. But yeah, an article (perhaps a couple/few) that says it where there's no way to read it as they've made a mistake (which I have seen before). EDIT: attributed to source, even if it's anon.
It couldn't be someone interpreting, which would make most X posts dangerous. Even those by journalists are skirting the "credible reporting" aspect, as they're (I would assume) not subject to editorial control. But yeah, an article (perhaps a couple/few) that says it where there's no way to read it as they've made a mistake (which I have seen before). EDIT: attributed to source, even if it's anon.
I haven't been keeping up with it, so I may not have seen what you're referencing. But last time I looked at it, nothing tied it to a June call. That's what the ace would do.
I haven't been keeping up with it, so I may not have seen what you're referencing. But last time I looked at it, nothing tied it to a June call. That's what the ace would do.
We're waiting to see your ace to decide 🙂 .
We're waiting to see your ace to decide 🙂 .
Indirect counts, as long as they're high level.
Indirect counts, as long as they're high level.
This you?
This you?
Clanker says no.
Clanker says no.
Which one?
Which one?
I find doing this while shouting at it helps.
I find doing this while shouting at it helps.
<@1272383282687905939> Something odd going on with this market's submarket buttons. https://polymarket.com/event/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31
<@1272383282687905939> Something odd going on with this market's submarket buttons. https://polymarket.com/event/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-december-31
It's sickening to hear him say that. If he hadn't moved to 0% enrichment last year, and had left them able to enrich to 3-6% none of this would have happened. Best President Ever (well to the Trump coalition), no global economic hit, etc.
It's sickening to hear him say that. If he hadn't moved to 0% enrichment last year, and had left them able to enrich to 3-6% none of this would have happened. Best President Ever (well to the Trump coalition), no global economic hit, etc.
Yeah. Otherwise they'd have said "pause enrichment". It's just not worth the fight with the Iranians over the pride of their nation (or whatever they call it) when (a) most of it is rubble and (b) if there's a hidden facility that wasn't bombed it's, well, hidden.
Yeah. Otherwise they'd have said "pause enrichment". It's just not worth the fight with the Iranians over the pride of their nation (or whatever they call it) when (a) most of it is rubble and (b) if there's a hidden facility that wasn't bombed it's, well, hidden.
I bet everyone in the office calls him dick pee.
I bet everyone in the office calls him dick pee.
I assume we have to come to you to pick it up?
I assume we have to come to you to pick it up?
Me too, so I do sympathise.
Me too, so I do sympathise.
We seem to be at the Thonker switches sides part of the dispute 🙂 .
We seem to be at the Thonker switches sides part of the dispute 🙂 .
Fair point. It just seems messy to me to force NO to pony up $4.5k to dispute when it could be addressed ahead of time. Something like the review-threads channel for clarification discussion would be useful. Do B&B have support for their assertion that there's no enrichment?
Fair point. It just seems messy to me to force NO to pony up $4.5k to dispute when it could be addressed ahead of time. Something like the review-threads channel for clarification discussion would be useful. Do B&B have support for their assertion that there's no enrichment?
If I had the courage of my convictions, I'd fullport NO. As it is, I'm not in the market.
If I had the courage of my convictions, I'd fullport NO. As it is, I'm not in the market.
<@941405798096076880> <@1272383282687905939> The enrichment market would benefit from a clarification before it gets messy (it'll need 6 disputes if proposed). https://polymarket.com/event/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-june-30 *"The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program"* YES is presumably arguing that the MOU is Iran an *"official pledge by Iran ... to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time"* (i.e. for the 60+ days that the MOU is in effect prior to finalised agreement). NO that, despite their known facilities being heavily damaged, we don't know that they don't have enrichment going on at the moment there or elsewhere, and the Iranians won't shut up about their right to enrich (and that credible reporting has no consensus that Iran has agreed to end enrichment).
<@941405798096076880> <@1272383282687905939> The enrichment market would benefit from a clarification before it gets messy (it'll need 6 disputes if proposed). https://polymarket.com/event/iran-agrees-to-end-enrichment-of-uranium-by-june-30 *"The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program"* YES is presumably arguing that the MOU is Iran an *"official pledge by Iran ... to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time"* (i.e. for the 60+ days that the MOU is in effect prior to finalised agreement). NO that, despite their known facilities being heavily damaged, we don't know that they don't have enrichment going on at the moment there or elsewhere, and the Iranians won't shut up about their right to enrich (and that credible reporting has no consensus that Iran has agreed to end enrichment).
Ha, hadn't seen your post. Just a random drive by posting.
Ha, hadn't seen your post. Just a random drive by posting.
Oh dear.
Oh dear.
That'd be an improvement - I have you on ignore because the no-name thing irritates me.
That'd be an improvement - I have you on ignore because the no-name thing irritates me.
It's worse than that. The issuing person likely does not have authority.
It's worse than that. The issuing person likely does not have authority.
This case looks like it might have an extension applied that didn't show up in the old uma system.
This case looks like it might have an extension applied that didn't show up in the old uma system.
Great, thanks guys. Looks like you were right Vini.
Great, thanks guys. Looks like you were right Vini.
Is this the new one? explorer.uma.xyz
Is this the new one? explorer.uma.xyz
Can't say just yet - waiting to hear from someone. Sorry.
Can't say just yet - waiting to hear from someone. Sorry.
That's the odd thing. All looks normal one hour in on UMA, but PM is showing 3 left.
That's the odd thing. All looks normal one hour in on UMA, but PM is showing 3 left.
It begins.
It begins.
Looks fine to me. Oh, I see. There is something screwy going on - it looks like WU uses 2 totally different data sources for C and F - the temp graphs are different, and even the windspeeds are different.
Looks fine to me. Oh, I see. There is something screwy going on - it looks like WU uses 2 totally different data sources for C and F - the temp graphs are different, and even the windspeeds are different.
Not a football fan, but isn't that because Iran rose in the rankings after defeating Mali on June 5? Although Denmark has yet to be credited with the Ukraine win there: not sure if that's because it takes a while, or whether it's because as you suggest FIFA ignore the result. inside.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men
Not a football fan, but isn't that because Iran rose in the rankings after defeating Mali on June 5? Although Denmark has yet to be credited with the Ukraine win there: not sure if that's because it takes a while, or whether it's because as you suggest FIFA ignore the result. inside.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men
Lol
Lol
Did RL actually propose June 22 airspace, or is that someone just using Kevin's name?
Did RL actually propose June 22 airspace, or is that someone just using Kevin's name?
Bit of a scam going by the probable market intent, but fair under the rules: low level human rights-types met to **negotiate** a prisoner swap. If the rules didn't have negotiate in them, it might have been safe.
Bit of a scam going by the probable market intent, but fair under the rules: low level human rights-types met to **negotiate** a prisoner swap. If the rules didn't have negotiate in them, it might have been safe.
The announcement aspect sidesteps all the problems from the last market, right?
The announcement aspect sidesteps all the problems from the last market, right?
Back to bed - it's already over (Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting)
Back to bed - it's already over (Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting)
Somalia and Ukraine were solid.
Somalia and Ukraine were solid.
Can't find anything.
Can't find anything.
Vro!
Vro!
Gamification of Polymarket: have levels that you need to achieve to unlock the next bet size bracket. Insane, obviously, but it does almost feel like some people need to learn not to put their hands on a hot stove. I mean, I was worried putting 10k into the MS market, and that's when I could see the clarification and the whales all on NO. This dude just drops everything he owns into a market on a platform he doesn't understand.
Gamification of Polymarket: have levels that you need to achieve to unlock the next bet size bracket. Insane, obviously, but it does almost feel like some people need to learn not to put their hands on a hot stove. I mean, I was worried putting 10k into the MS market, and that's when I could see the clarification and the whales all on NO. This dude just drops everything he owns into a market on a platform he doesn't understand.
Kalshi have the Word doc. Could easily get unmanageable though, but there has to be a way of e.g. telling people on Lebanon strike markets that most Lebanon media is ignored.
Kalshi have the Word doc. Could easily get unmanageable though, but there has to be a way of e.g. telling people on Lebanon strike markets that most Lebanon media is ignored.
His first bet was a winning bet, but he sold it.
His first bet was a winning bet, but he sold it.
Brutal.
Brutal.
Done. Your baby?
Done. Your baby?
*A qualifying action must create a federal process for reviewing~~ or approving~~ the public release of new artificial intelligence models.* *A qualifying review process may apply to* *a) artificial intelligence models generally,* *b) only to models meeting specified criteria (e.g.capability, safety, cybersecurity, national-security, or other risk-based criteria), or* *c) to models selected for review at the discretion of the federal government.* Where does it say models that elect to join this process? All 3 criteria require US gvt discretion, not that of the company developing.
*A qualifying action must create a federal process for reviewing~~ or approving~~ the public release of new artificial intelligence models.* *A qualifying review process may apply to* *a) artificial intelligence models generally,* *b) only to models meeting specified criteria (e.g.capability, safety, cybersecurity, national-security, or other risk-based criteria), or* *c) to models selected for review at the discretion of the federal government.* Where does it say models that elect to join this process? All 3 criteria require US gvt discretion, not that of the company developing.
Don't they only just turn up after a dispute though? I haven't seen much benefit to them so far over UMA, but maybe that'll change.
Don't they only just turn up after a dispute though? I haven't seen much benefit to them so far over UMA, but maybe that'll change.
Not the worst idea to have something like the UMA dispute threads pre-clarification so Bos etc. can get tight, condensed versions of the arguments rather than having to trawl through the channels and DTOR.
Not the worst idea to have something like the UMA dispute threads pre-clarification so Bos etc. can get tight, condensed versions of the arguments rather than having to trawl through the channels and DTOR.
CongMingLabs and most of the humorously-named top NO on MicroStrategy.
CongMingLabs and most of the humorously-named top NO on MicroStrategy.
They can depopulate the smaller Gulf States without a nuke. 100% of "guest" workers send home immediately, and much of the citizenry fleeing.
They can depopulate the smaller Gulf States without a nuke. 100% of "guest" workers send home immediately, and much of the citizenry fleeing.
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