KalshiAlso just checked the presidential margins over the years. Even in the 2008 Obama landslide, he lost SC by 8.8 pts.
Also just checked the presidential margins over the years. Even in the 2008 Obama landslide, he lost SC by 8.8 pts.
Jeff参与话题 9消息总数 107
该用户的聊天记录定位。
聊天记录
共 107 条，显示第 1-50 条Also it’s not like Annie Andrews is a A+ recruit.
Also it’s not like Annie Andrews is a A+ recruit.
Personally I think SC is too racially polarized for Dem to win. Remember Jaime Harrison spent $100 million and ended up getting almost exact vote share as Biden.
Personally I think SC is too racially polarized for Dem to win. Remember Jaime Harrison spent $100 million and ended up getting almost exact vote share as Biden.
It will probably go up still. A non incumbent with lower name recognition often don’t poll well initially. (In any event Dem is def not winning here even if they nominate Mark Lynch)
It will probably go up still. A non incumbent with lower name recognition often don’t poll well initially. (In any event Dem is def not winning here even if they nominate Mark Lynch)
Who did this lol?
Who did this lol?
https://x.com/realericmoutsos/status/2075294523023061456?s=46
https://x.com/realericmoutsos/status/2075294523023061456?s=46
What did Janet Mills do jfc😂
What did Janet Mills do jfc😂
https://x.com/anthonymemerson/status/2075055660186714347?s=46
https://x.com/anthonymemerson/status/2075055660186714347?s=46
Graham Platner’s campaign is as dead as Mitch McConnell
Graham Platner’s campaign is as dead as Mitch McConnell
Can Infantino rescind Platner’s nomination if he does not drop out?
Can Infantino rescind Platner’s nomination if he does not drop out?
I wonder if Platner would accept Shanna Bellows
I wonder if Platner would accept Shanna Bellows
This is also funny lol. Janet Mills is the only person who can do worse than Platner now.
This is also funny lol. Janet Mills is the only person who can do worse than Platner now.
Extremely funny that Janet Mills is trading at 10c now.
Extremely funny that Janet Mills is trading at 10c now.
https://x.com/robillard/status/2074218633903865900?s=46
https://x.com/robillard/status/2074218633903865900?s=46
<@1066645794108735510> Can we get the Republican Senate Primaries Combo market resolved? I know Tafoya’s primary has not happened yet but the payout condition is already met.
<@1066645794108735510> Can we get the Republican Senate Primaries Combo market resolved? I know Tafoya’s primary has not happened yet but the payout condition is already met.
Thanks to whoever filled my Oliver Larkin No at 79c. He is not gonna win tho.
Thanks to whoever filled my Oliver Larkin No at 79c. He is not gonna win tho.
“The only people interested in debates are reporters and losing candidates” - Cindy Hyde-Smith
“The only people interested in debates are reporters and losing candidates” - Cindy Hyde-Smith
Imo another signal is that Hickenlooper is not even bothering going negative on her in ads.
Imo another signal is that Hickenlooper is not even bothering going negative on her in ads.
Gonzales has really no money and no high profile support. Also this is kinda a sign she is losing. https://x.com/senadorajulie/status/2068457395530121433?s=46
Gonzales has really no money and no high profile support. Also this is kinda a sign she is losing. https://x.com/senadorajulie/status/2068457395530121433?s=46
<@1066645794108735510> Can we also get the Republican Senate Primary combo market resolved? Thanks
<@1066645794108735510> Can we also get the Republican Senate Primary combo market resolved? Thanks
My other tell was that Clay Higgins, a freedom caucus guy, endorsed Letlow. Ideologically he is way closer to Fleming. He could have stayed neutral like Mike Johnson. Him endorsing Letlow suggested to me it was not particularly close.
My other tell was that Clay Higgins, a freedom caucus guy, endorsed Letlow. Ideologically he is way closer to Fleming. He could have stayed neutral like Mike Johnson. Him endorsing Letlow suggested to me it was not particularly close.
Ofc many did. But the runoff polls would require probably most Cassidy voters to transfer to Fleming. Remember Letlow already got 44% in the first round
Ofc many did. But the runoff polls would require probably most Cassidy voters to transfer to Fleming. Remember Letlow already got 44% in the first round
Personally I never get why people think Cassidy voters will mostly be voting for Fleming when he is much more conservative than Letlow.
Personally I never get why people think Cassidy voters will mostly be voting for Fleming when he is much more conservative than Letlow.
Their LA runoff poll looks fine until you realize their crosstabs by regions are utterly ridiculous.
Their LA runoff poll looks fine until you realize their crosstabs by regions are utterly ridiculous.
Liberal MAGA Letlow wins again
Liberal MAGA Letlow wins again
I mean Fleming winning really requires either extremely low turnout or him winning suburban parishes that he got less than 20% in the first round.
I mean Fleming winning really requires either extremely low turnout or him winning suburban parishes that he got less than 20% in the first round.
Quantus aced the first round but it looks like they are way off this time
Quantus aced the first round but it looks like they are way off this time
And all these polls are independent
And all these polls are independent
Trust me there are worse polls.
Trust me there are worse polls.
NO does not matter tho. They don’t cast a lot of votes.
NO does not matter tho. They don’t cast a lot of votes.
Always long Trump endorsed Congressional candidates and short Trump endorsed gubernatorial candidates
Always long Trump endorsed Congressional candidates and short Trump endorsed gubernatorial candidates
https://x.com/decisiondeskhq/status/2071046103156318713?s=46
https://x.com/decisiondeskhq/status/2071046103156318713?s=46
Shreveport 51-49 with EV is not good for Fleming
Shreveport 51-49 with EV is not good for Fleming
Quantus has Letlow doing much better in Election Day vote. (Not to say they are great. Most runoff polls in LA are kinda bad just like in AL before)
Quantus has Letlow doing much better in Election Day vote. (Not to say they are great. Most runoff polls in LA are kinda bad just like in AL before)
Also I’m having a hard time believing Fleming is winning East Baton Rouge
Also I’m having a hard time believing Fleming is winning East Baton Rouge
Election Day vote will favor Letlow tho
Election Day vote will favor Letlow tho
Bonded way too early but good game again, Fleming bros
Bonded way too early but good game again, Fleming bros
Meng is doing much worse than expected in NY 06
Meng is doing much worse than expected in NY 06
Lasher lfg
Lasher lfg
https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/state-maps/ny-multimap/nyc-26-cong-prim
https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/state-maps/ny-multimap/nyc-26-cong-prim
Lasher is beating Bores even on some of the east side lol
Lasher is beating Bores even on some of the east side lol
Boafo margin/vote share for MD 05, the race to replace Steny Hoyer?
Boafo margin/vote share for MD 05, the race to replace Steny Hoyer?
Letlow 60-40 incoming
Letlow 60-40 incoming
I don’t think the Mamdani vs Cuomo margin is necessarily indicative of how ppl may vote in this election. We literally saw Bernie Sanders struggling in a lot of states/ counties against Biden that he easily carried against Hillary 4 years prior. A lot of people probably voted Mamdani bc they really hated Cuomo rather than bc they suddenly became DSA members.
I don’t think the Mamdani vs Cuomo margin is necessarily indicative of how ppl may vote in this election. We literally saw Bernie Sanders struggling in a lot of states/ counties against Biden that he easily carried against Hillary 4 years prior. A lot of people probably voted Mamdani bc they really hated Cuomo rather than bc they suddenly became DSA members.
There are a lot of racial politics in Dem primaries as well.
There are a lot of racial politics in Dem primaries as well.
Also Mamdani and Espillat can both be popular with them. It’s not always ideological
Also Mamdani and Espillat can both be popular with them. It’s not always ideological
Different electorate showing up as it was much younger last time.
Different electorate showing up as it was much younger last time.
That’s kinda different from saying no one should be deported
That’s kinda different from saying no one should be deported
She also said in an interview that even violent criminals should not be deported.
She also said in an interview that even violent criminals should not be deported.
Not really. Mamdani explicitly rejected his past woke positions and focused on economic issues.
Not really. Mamdani explicitly rejected his past woke positions and focused on economic issues.
第 1 / 3 页
下一页 →