聊天记录
共 5 条，显示第 1-5 条
https://polymarket.com/zh/event/will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes-741/will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes-741 Resolve YES
https://polymarket.com/zh/event/trump-renames-strait-of-hormuz-to-strait-of-trump-by-june-30/trump-renames-strait-of-hormuz-to-strait-of-trump-by-june-30
Resolve NO
https://polymarket.com/zh/event/federal-gas-tax-suspended-by/will-the-federal-gas-tax-be-suspended-by-june-30-2026
Resolve NO
https://polymarket.com/zh/event/will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes-741/will-the-iranian-regime-survive-us-military-strikes-741 Resolve YES
https://polymarket.com/zh/event/trump-renames-strait-of-hormuz-to-strait-of-trump-by-june-30/trump-renames-strait-of-hormuz-to-strait-of-trump-by-june-30
Resolve NO
https://polymarket.com/zh/event/federal-gas-tax-suspended-by/will-the-federal-gas-tax-be-suspended-by-june-30-2026
Resolve NO
The absurdity of this US-Iran MOU:
One side (Iran) celebrates “Israel’s complete withdrawal from Lebanon” as a core victory of the deal.
The other side (Israel) responds:
We were not a party.
We did not sign.
We will not comply.
Netanyahu stated: Israeli forces will remain indefinitely in southern Lebanon’s security zones.
This is like A and B signing a deal saying “C must give his house to B” — while C was never in the room, never signed, and immediately declares “I’m not moving out.”
The absurdity of this US-Iran MOU:
One side (Iran) celebrates “Israel’s complete withdrawal from Lebanon” as a core victory of the deal.
The other side (Israel) responds:
We were not a party.
We did not sign.
We will not comply.
Netanyahu stated: Israeli forces will remain indefinitely in southern Lebanon’s security zones.
This is like A and B signing a deal saying “C must give his house to B” — while C was never in the room, never signed, and immediately declares “I’m not moving out.”
**Request for Proposal: Resolve "Israel x Hezbollah Permanent Peace Deal by 6/15" as NO**
https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-15-2026
I request a resolution proposal to settle this market as **NO**.
---
**Key Facts and Evidence:**
1. Israel is not a party to the US-Iran MOU and will not be bound by it.
Original quote: “Although Israel is not a party to the memorandum of understanding...”
→ <https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-says-israel-not-party-to-iran-deal-but-praises-trump-for-commitment-to-thwarting-nukes/>
2. Israeli forces will remain indefinitely in southern Lebanon.
Netanyahu (June 15): “remain in the security zone as much as necessary...”
→ <https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-avoids-criticizing-us-iran-deal-claims-wars-main-goals-have-been-achieved/>
Katz confirmed no withdrawal.
→ <https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/6/15/iran-war-live-tehran-says-peace-deal-ends-us-blockade-war-on-all-fronts>
3. No Permanent Peace Deal has been announced.
Netanyahu: “The struggle has not ended.” Ongoing clashes continue.
→ <https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/06/15/world/iran-war-trump-us-deal>
---
**Resolution Rationale:**
Deadline has passed with no Permanent Peace Deal. Should resolve as **NO**.
**Request for Proposal: Resolve "Israel x Hezbollah Permanent Peace Deal by 6/15" as NO**
https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by/israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-15-2026
I request a resolution proposal to settle this market as **NO**.
---
**Key Facts and Evidence:**
1. Israel is not a party to the US-Iran MOU and will not be bound by it.
Original quote: “Although Israel is not a party to the memorandum of understanding...”
→ <https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-says-israel-not-party-to-iran-deal-but-praises-trump-for-commitment-to-thwarting-nukes/>
2. Israeli forces will remain indefinitely in southern Lebanon.
Netanyahu (June 15): “remain in the security zone as much as necessary...”
→ <https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-avoids-criticizing-us-iran-deal-claims-wars-main-goals-have-been-achieved/>
Katz confirmed no withdrawal.
→ <https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/6/15/iran-war-live-tehran-says-peace-deal-ends-us-blockade-war-on-all-fronts>
3. No Permanent Peace Deal has been announced.
Netanyahu: “The struggle has not ended.” Ongoing clashes continue.
→ <https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/06/15/world/iran-war-trump-us-deal>
---
**Resolution Rationale:**
Deadline has passed with no Permanent Peace Deal. Should resolve as **NO**.
https://polymarket.com/zh/event/will-iran-play-in-the-world-cup/will-iran-play-in-the-world-cup
Please resolve YES
https://polymarket.com/zh/event/will-iran-play-in-the-world-cup/will-iran-play-in-the-world-cup
Please resolve YES
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 Data has been published.
https://polymarket.com/event/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-may-31/will-20-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-may-31
https://polymarket.com/event/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-may-31/will-40-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-may-31
https://polymarket.com/event/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-may-31/will-60-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-may-31
Can be resolved as NO
https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may
Can be resolved as NO
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 Data has been published.
https://polymarket.com/event/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-may-31/will-20-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-may-31
https://polymarket.com/event/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-may-31/will-40-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-may-31
https://polymarket.com/event/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-may-31/will-60-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-may-31
Can be resolved as NO
https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-may
Can be resolved as NO
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