PolymarketMarket Title Will the United States conduct a military strike on Iran today? Outcomes Yes No Market Description This market resolves based on whether the United States carries out at least one military strike against Iranian territory or Iranian government or military assets located within Iran before 11:59 PM UTC on 08/07/2026. The strike may be conducted by U.S. military forces directly or by U.S.-operated aircraft, missiles, drones, or naval assets. The operation must be officially acknowledged by the United States government or confirmed by multiple credible news organizations. Proposed Resolution Criteria This market resolves to Yes if, before 11:59:59 PM UTC on [DATE], the United States conducts at least one military strike on Iranian territory or against Iranian government or military assets located inside Iran. Examples that qualify: Airstrikes by U.S. military aircraft. Missile strikes launched by U.S. forces. Drone strikes conducted by U.S. military forces. Naval strikes targeting locations within Iran. This market resolves to No if no such strike occurs before the deadline. The following do not qualify: Verbal threats or announcements. Economic sanctions. Cyberattacks. Military deployments or troop movements. Israeli strikes not directly conducted by U.S. forces. Strikes on Iranian-backed groups outside Iran (e.g., in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, or Lebanon) unless the strike itself occurs inside Iran. Resolution Source Primary sources will include official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense or the White House. If no official statement is available, the market will resolve based on reporting from multiple reputable international news organizations such as Reuters, Associated Press (AP), BBC, or Agence France-Presse (AFP). If these sources conflict, the market will be resolved according to the preponderance of credible evidence.
Market Title Will the United States conduct a military strike on Iran today? Outcomes Yes No Market Description This market resolves based on whether the United States carries out at least one military strike against Iranian territory or Iranian government or military assets located within Iran before 11:59 PM UTC on 08/07/2026. The strike may be conducted by U.S. military forces directly or by U.S.-operated aircraft, missiles, drones, or naval assets. The operation must be officially acknowledged by the United States government or confirmed by multiple credible news organizations. Proposed Resolution Criteria This market resolves to Yes if, before 11:59:59 PM UTC on [DATE], the United States conducts at least one military strike on Iranian territory or against Iranian government or military assets located inside Iran. Examples that qualify: Airstrikes by U.S. military aircraft. Missile strikes launched by U.S. forces. Drone strikes conducted by U.S. military forces. Naval strikes targeting locations within Iran. This market resolves to No if no such strike occurs before the deadline. The following do not qualify: Verbal threats or announcements. Economic sanctions. Cyberattacks. Military deployments or troop movements. Israeli strikes not directly conducted by U.S. forces. Strikes on Iranian-backed groups outside Iran (e.g., in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, or Lebanon) unless the strike itself occurs inside Iran. Resolution Source Primary sources will include official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense or the White House. If no official statement is available, the market will resolve based on reporting from multiple reputable international news organizations such as Reuters, Associated Press (AP), BBC, or Agence France-Presse (AFP). If these sources conflict, the market will be resolved according to the preponderance of credible evidence.