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加拿大阿尔伯塔省公投市场因规则解读引发结算争议

2026-06-06 · Polymarket · 29 条相关讨论

arbguy 2026-06-05 21:09:15

O.C. 160/2026 sets out the following question and orders the results of the referendum on this question are not to be binding. Electors will mark an “x” next to the options of their choice on their ballots. Should Alberta remain a province in Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada? Option 1: Alberta should remain a province in Canada. Option 2: The Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada.

O.C. 160/2026 sets out the following question and orders the results of the referendum on this question are not to be binding. Electors will mark an “x” next to the options of their choice on their ballots. Should Alberta remain a province in Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada? Option 1: Alberta should remain a province in Canada. Option 2: The Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada.

wildchylde 2026-06-05 21:10:42

Your point is that it's nonbinding and therefore valid under the rules. My point is that the question is nonbinding, yes, but it's still not valid under the rules because the question doesn't establish Albertans' desire for independence -- in a binding OR nonbinding way

Your point is that it's nonbinding and therefore valid under the rules. My point is that the question is nonbinding, yes, but it's still not valid under the rules because the question doesn't establish Albertans' desire for independence -- in a binding OR nonbinding way

cenas 2026-06-05 21:17:30

The prob is the ballot question allows a few edge cases to default to B such as someone who doesn't have a clear opinion on A but thinks there should be a binding referendum on the matter. The question can also be adjudicated as a matter of priority. It's not a real dichotomy. This should prob still be P2 since the idea is to establish if the desire for independence is sufficient or not

The prob is the ballot question allows a few edge cases to default to B such as someone who doesn't have a clear opinion on A but thinks there should be a binding referendum on the matter. The question can also be adjudicated as a matter of priority. It's not a real dichotomy. This should prob still be P2 since the idea is to establish if the desire for independence is sufficient or not

SHJZB 2026-06-05 21:18:50

"Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence..." Let's go Canada

"Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence..." Let's go Canada

Laccs 2026-06-05 21:57:17

Hey, whats the N argument

Hey, whats the N argument

SHJZB 2026-06-05 21:58:13

Asking “does filing for divorce establish desire to end the marriage?”

Asking “does filing for divorce establish desire to end the marriage?”

arbguy 2026-06-05 22:00:51

do you want to remain in your marriage or attend marriage counseling in order to decide whether to file for divorce

do you want to remain in your marriage or attend marriage counseling in order to decide whether to file for divorce

Laccs 2026-06-05 22:04:06

Option 2: The Government of Alberta should commence the legal process… to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada.

Option 2: The Government of Alberta should commence the legal process… to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada.

Laccs 2026-06-05 22:11:23

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

wildchylde 2026-06-05 22:14:08

Fundamentally wrong. If option 2 wins, a legal referendum will take place about separation. Option 2 winning does not mean that the separation will take place, or even that people voting for 2 want the separation

Fundamentally wrong. If option 2 wins, a legal referendum will take place about separation. Option 2 winning does not mean that the separation will take place, or even that people voting for 2 want the separation

wildchylde 2026-06-05 22:17:31

"obviously" is not a legal argument. Prime Minister, state media, separatists, courts all agree that this is NOT a referendum on separation

"obviously" is not a legal argument. Prime Minister, state media, separatists, courts all agree that this is NOT a referendum on separation

wildchylde 2026-06-05 22:28:13

If this market goes Yes, I will intuit that every single market resolution will be for the most brain-dead, surface-level resolution possible

If this market goes Yes, I will intuit that every single market resolution will be for the most brain-dead, surface-level resolution possible

wildchylde 2026-06-05 22:33:01

And THIS is the key. The referendum will not accurately establish the province's desire for independence. A referendum of a referendum does not do that. Only a referendum on separation would.

And THIS is the key. The referendum will not accurately establish the province's desire for independence. A referendum of a referendum does not do that. Only a referendum on separation would.

wildchylde 2026-06-05 22:43:59

I'm afraid collective stupidity will rule against sanity, reality, and off-Polymarket consensus. Clarification is needed.

I'm afraid collective stupidity will rule against sanity, reality, and off-Polymarket consensus. Clarification is needed.

50-Pence 2026-06-05 23:06:03

Someone paid $1500 to argue the referendum about cessession doesnt concern cessession

Someone paid $1500 to argue the referendum about cessession doesnt concern cessession

wildchylde 2026-06-05 23:15:31

I filed the dispute

I filed the dispute

pi 2026-06-06 01:57:51

Title of the market is self explaining. Referendum about should we schedule a referendum about leaving it’s not the “will a province schedule a referendum about leaving”

Title of the market is self explaining. Referendum about should we schedule a referendum about leaving it’s not the “will a province schedule a referendum about leaving”

Begotten 2026-06-06 01:58:05

credible reporting says this is a referendum for a referendum. voting for a referendum doesn't necessarily establish the desire to leave

credible reporting says this is a referendum for a referendum. voting for a referendum doesn't necessarily establish the desire to leave

Abhi 2026-06-06 02:00:23

P2

P2

50-Pence 2026-06-06 02:01:10

that has to be one of the longer yes's

that has to be one of the longer yes's