秋田预测市场 · Discord 审计

威斯康星州参议员初选市场中 Hong 的支持度与选情分析

2026-06-21 · Kalshi · 19 条相关讨论

not ess pea 2026-06-21 02:31:35

Although I do think Sayed would win and Hong would lose

Although I do think Sayed would win and Hong would lose

@bernardbulletin 2026-06-21 02:33:12

i suspect the anti-hong rhetoric has started early enough to have a real effect. sayed is running away with it though

i suspect the anti-hong rhetoric has started early enough to have a real effect. sayed is running away with it though

not ess pea 2026-06-21 02:35:39

Like I’ve said too Wisconsin has voted red statewide like every year in the last 10 other than 2020 and 2018

Like I’ve said too Wisconsin has voted red statewide like every year in the last 10 other than 2020 and 2018

not ess pea 2026-06-21 02:36:17

Scott Walker 2012, Scott Walker 2014, Trump 2016, Ron Johnson 2016, Ron Johnson 2022, Trump 2024

Scott Walker 2012, Scott Walker 2014, Trump 2016, Ron Johnson 2016, Ron Johnson 2022, Trump 2024

not ess pea 2026-06-21 02:36:31

Scott Walker lost by 1% in 2018 too

Scott Walker lost by 1% in 2018 too

not ess pea 2026-06-21 02:36:47

And Trump lost WI by 1% in 2020

And Trump lost WI by 1% in 2020

not ess pea 2026-06-21 02:37:03

I just don’t see a path for a democratic socialist in a state that always comes down to the wire

I just don’t see a path for a democratic socialist in a state that always comes down to the wire

jim 2026-06-21 02:38:13

Hong can win there

Hong can win there

jim 2026-06-21 02:38:21

in this environment

in this environment

not ess pea 2026-06-21 02:39:04

Wisconsin was only Evers+1 in 2018 and Biden+1 in 2020

Wisconsin was only Evers+1 in 2018 and Biden+1 in 2020

not ess pea 2026-06-21 02:39:43

I mean I could see it but I think Tiffany would be the favorite

I mean I could see it but I think Tiffany would be the favorite

not ess pea 2026-06-21 02:40:17

Candidate quality matters

Candidate quality matters

not ess pea 2026-06-21 02:40:31

We saw the GOP hold multiple key governor seats in 2018 in a D+8 national environment

We saw the GOP hold multiple key governor seats in 2018 in a D+8 national environment

jim 2026-06-21 02:40:45

good odds currently if you think Tiffany's favored. Not like the other dem nominees are any better tbh

good odds currently if you think Tiffany's favored. Not like the other dem nominees are any better tbh

buffamo 2026-06-21 02:41:49

hong is a clear tier below the other candidates

hong is a clear tier below the other candidates

jim 2026-06-21 02:43:11

ehh maybe. Barnes is a pretty bad candidate

ehh maybe. Barnes is a pretty bad candidate

not ess pea 2026-06-21 02:43:21

Barnes would win

Barnes would win

jim 2026-06-21 02:43:38

Well I agree but I think Hong wins too. I don't think it really matters

Well I agree but I think Hong wins too. I don't think it really matters

jim 2026-06-21 02:44:14

doesn't make Barnes a good candidate, hes kind of unpopular there

doesn't make Barnes a good candidate, hes kind of unpopular there