秋田预测市场 · Discord 审计

美国伊朗外交会议市场结算被指骗局

2026-07-04 · Polymarket · 50 条相关讨论

Splunks 2026-07-04 15:10:15

Bud, the first article you linked is probably the strongest No evidence there is. "Discussions focused on implementing an **interim agreement reached two weeks ago** rather than tackling the long running dispute over Tehran's nuclear program". The market isn't about weather they had a meeting, it's about whether it was a new round of negotiations that aren't technical implementation talks which is exactly what this article describes it as being. It literally says it's about implementing the prior agreement which the rules specifically exclude.

Bud, the first article you linked is probably the strongest No evidence there is. "Discussions focused on implementing an **interim agreement reached two weeks ago** rather than tackling the long running dispute over Tehran's nuclear program". The market isn't about weather they had a meeting, it's about whether it was a new round of negotiations that aren't technical implementation talks which is exactly what this article describes it as being. It literally says it's about implementing the prior agreement which the rules specifically exclude.

Arman 2026-07-04 15:23:02

The dispute is valid

The dispute is valid

Arman 2026-07-04 15:24:02

Pete got robbed

Pete got robbed

Arman 2026-07-04 15:24:09

<:scam:1479898552590270565>

<:scam:1479898552590270565>

ping 2026-07-04 15:25:25

Which market is this

Which market is this

Enigma 2026-07-04 15:34:22

That clarification on next diplomatic meeting was the worst i have ever seen we sent so much evidence of credible reporting senior negitiators were present on each side and indirect mediations happened between qataris/pakistanis and us/iran

That clarification on next diplomatic meeting was the worst i have ever seen we sent so much evidence of credible reporting senior negitiators were present on each side and indirect mediations happened between qataris/pakistanis and us/iran

Enigma 2026-07-04 15:34:37

Everyone just ignored the fact basis

Everyone just ignored the fact basis

Enigma 2026-07-04 15:41:53

Like they literally just took the facts of what happened in tbe clarification > that the separate June 30 - July 1 meetings between Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, and Kazem Gharibabadi, with Qatari officials constituted indirect in-person diplomacy as part of a formal diplomatic process And put a > no consensus of credible reporting, or official information from the United States and Iran, indicates In front of it

Like they literally just took the facts of what happened in tbe clarification > that the separate June 30 - July 1 meetings between Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, and Kazem Gharibabadi, with Qatari officials constituted indirect in-person diplomacy as part of a formal diplomatic process And put a > no consensus of credible reporting, or official information from the United States and Iran, indicates In front of it

Sir_Iahim 2026-07-04 15:48:09

This was a Poly Scam ... First one I see done in this way... Would have expected someone else to scam but not a clarif

This was a Poly Scam ... First one I see done in this way... Would have expected someone else to scam but not a clarif

Camal 2026-07-04 16:57:00

Gm gang any more scams

Gm gang any more scams

Camal 2026-07-04 16:58:10

gg <@1382123475979735122>

gg <@1382123475979735122>

Camal 2026-07-04 16:59:03

Nah just diplo

Nah just diplo

Camal 2026-07-04 16:59:36

FUUUUUUUUCK

FUUUUUUUUCK

Splunks 2026-07-04 16:59:38

I made like half back, little under

I made like half back, little under

Splunks 2026-07-04 16:59:43

but ya, ouchies

but ya, ouchies

Camal 2026-07-04 16:59:56

sorry vro

sorry vro

Splunks 2026-07-04 17:00:08

my own fault for stepping away from the computer on the weekend lol and then coming in late and panicing before fully reading everything

my own fault for stepping away from the computer on the weekend lol and then coming in late and panicing before fully reading everything

Camal 2026-07-04 17:00:16

I’ll tip ya $1

I’ll tip ya $1

Splunks 2026-07-04 17:20:42

diplo meeting dispute drops when July 3rd is at like 99.5c N. I was on N, didn't have sell orders up since yesterday cause just figured no news and the news that was out wasn't sufficient. The dispute pump went up to 35c yes for an hour or so before staggering back down to 15c and then ded. I sold at some not great prices before realizing it had no chance.

diplo meeting dispute drops when July 3rd is at like 99.5c N. I was on N, didn't have sell orders up since yesterday cause just figured no news and the news that was out wasn't sufficient. The dispute pump went up to 35c yes for an hour or so before staggering back down to 15c and then ded. I sold at some not great prices before realizing it had no chance.

Sir_Iahim 2026-07-04 17:23:38

At least you got something back, I got drunk last night before the last yes pump, and I was 100% sure I put a sell order at 20c.... but woke up today on zero:))))

At least you got something back, I got drunk last night before the last yes pump, and I was 100% sure I put a sell order at 20c.... but woke up today on zero:))))

Arman 2026-07-04 17:27:18

Crine

Crine

Diplopia 2026-07-04 19:21:57

I'm realising that I keep taking the wrong side of these disputes and would probably make way more money just staying out of this channel

I'm realising that I keep taking the wrong side of these disputes and would probably make way more money just staying out of this channel

Diplopia 2026-07-04 19:23:26

Somehow lost money on the Diplo meeting despite buying at 3c

Somehow lost money on the Diplo meeting despite buying at 3c

Enigma 2026-07-04 19:24:30

i mean it was yes but it was scammed by no

i mean it was yes but it was scammed by no

Diplopia 2026-07-04 19:25:33

Ah we can say that as a cope but realistically if I'm engaging in debatable disputes like this I should be looking at it on a more meta level than whatever bias I have towards truth

Ah we can say that as a cope but realistically if I'm engaging in debatable disputes like this I should be looking at it on a more meta level than whatever bias I have towards truth

Diplopia 2026-07-04 19:26:38

And if I can't then I shouldn't be buying dispute markets right

And if I can't then I shouldn't be buying dispute markets right

Enigma 2026-07-04 19:28:59

truth is +ev imo

truth is +ev imo

Enigma 2026-07-04 19:29:08

more often than not

more often than not

Diplopia 2026-07-04 19:29:11

Truth itself is debatable

Truth itself is debatable

Diplopia 2026-07-04 19:30:08

And I'm retarded

And I'm retarded

Meduzinator 2026-07-04 19:32:28

did you buy it before the pumps and held the whole time?

did you buy it before the pumps and held the whole time?

Diplopia 2026-07-04 19:33:28

Worse, sold at 20c. Saw a bunch of sharps swap to y. Bought back in at 10 with limits while I was out drinking and went to zero

Worse, sold at 20c. Saw a bunch of sharps swap to y. Bought back in at 10 with limits while I was out drinking and went to zero

Diplopia 2026-07-04 19:33:44

Didn't even see preclarif

Didn't even see preclarif

Meduzinator 2026-07-04 19:34:17

ah, i see, makes sense then

ah, i see, makes sense then

Alireza 2026-07-04 19:34:37

I did the same thing

I did the same thing

Diplopia 2026-07-04 19:34:43

My main mistake was buying back in with more than 50% the profits I made

My main mistake was buying back in with more than 50% the profits I made

Destiny 2026-07-04 19:34:56

They argued begging for a clarification saying it will win and the second it got preclarifidd they just went quiet and gave up monka

They argued begging for a clarification saying it will win and the second it got preclarifidd they just went quiet and gave up monka

Diplopia 2026-07-04 19:34:58

Totally wiped it out

Totally wiped it out

Diplopia 2026-07-04 19:35:35

BM profile chart 9m

BM profile chart 9m

Meduzinator 2026-07-04 19:35:52

i bought at good prices, 13c on 3rd and 16.9 average on July 10th and guess what, i didn't sell during the first pump, sold impatiently for only few more c up and then the second pump happened literally 5 minutes later <:kekw:939703711628947487>

i bought at good prices, 13c on 3rd and 16.9 average on July 10th and guess what, i didn't sell during the first pump, sold impatiently for only few more c up and then the second pump happened literally 5 minutes later <:kekw:939703711628947487>

Diplopia 2026-07-04 19:37:01

I think I'm gonna make my own version of Kelly

I think I'm gonna make my own version of Kelly

Diplopia 2026-07-04 19:37:20

It'll be the dip % for dipshits like me who need to size better

It'll be the dip % for dipshits like me who need to size better

Diplopia 2026-07-04 19:37:46

No more than 1/4 the market percent as % of your portfolio

No more than 1/4 the market percent as % of your portfolio

Diplopia 2026-07-04 19:38:06

Maybe less

Maybe less

Diplopia 2026-07-04 19:38:12

Like 1/10th

Like 1/10th

Meduzinator 2026-07-04 19:38:14

nah, just need a dispute that is even more clear than this, go bonkers on the low side that is supposed to win, and you'll get a pnl chart like mine, where it looks almost like stairs <:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251>

nah, just need a dispute that is even more clear than this, go bonkers on the low side that is supposed to win, and you'll get a pnl chart like mine, where it looks almost like stairs <:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251>

Enigma 2026-07-04 19:38:42

i truly thought diplo would go yes so im fine with not selling on the pumps

i truly thought diplo would go yes so im fine with not selling on the pumps

Diplopia 2026-07-04 19:38:48

Falling down the stairs maybe

Falling down the stairs maybe