秋田预测市场 · Discord 审计

US-Iran 7月10日外交会议时间市场引发欺诈与操纵争议

2026-07-05 · Polymarket · 37 条相关讨论

Camal 2026-07-05 18:43:36

Why are we pumping July 10 diplo

Why are we pumping July 10 diplo

Petar 2026-07-05 18:44:17

resolves on ET, if it happens early in the morning Pakistan time could go P2, something along those lines

resolves on ET, if it happens early in the morning Pakistan time could go P2, something along those lines

arbguy 2026-07-05 18:46:27

Some retards even suggested ET could be non daylight savings which is absolutely not the case

Some retards even suggested ET could be non daylight savings which is absolutely not the case

Petar 2026-07-05 18:48:59

Im reading it as 08:59 in the morning Pakistan time, thats eastern standard to pakistan time conversion. I think a lot of things can go wrong here tho...

Im reading it as 08:59 in the morning Pakistan time, thats eastern standard to pakistan time conversion. I think a lot of things can go wrong here tho...

Diplopia 2026-07-05 18:53:45

Do they typically say what time the diplomatic meeting started at?

Do they typically say what time the diplomatic meeting started at?

Arman 2026-07-05 18:54:55

Yea seems too risky imo especially cuz you have to pinpoint when it exactly started

Yea seems too risky imo especially cuz you have to pinpoint when it exactly started

Try Hard On Sofa 𓆩✪𓆪 2026-07-05 18:55:51

The meeting only counts if meetings before 9 AM Pakistan time

The meeting only counts if meetings before 9 AM Pakistan time

Try Hard On Sofa 𓆩✪𓆪 2026-07-05 18:57:52

Those idiots are manipulating YES again. What meeting starts before 9 AM? The logistical preparation will take a lot of time and the earliest it could happen is around noon local time

Those idiots are manipulating YES again. What meeting starts before 9 AM? The logistical preparation will take a lot of time and the earliest it could happen is around noon local time

motormouthed 2026-07-05 19:00:39

wtf? we just need a piece of reporting saying that the meeting has just started before the deadline comes

wtf? we just need a piece of reporting saying that the meeting has just started before the deadline comes

motormouthed 2026-07-05 19:05:10

im expecting between 11pm on july 10 et time to 4 am july 11

im expecting between 11pm on july 10 et time to 4 am july 11

arbguy 2026-07-05 19:07:55

yea senior officials are really going to start at 8am on the first day

yea senior officials are really going to start at 8am on the first day

Camal 2026-07-05 19:08:13

It wont be a indirect meeting, so its no anyway

It wont be a indirect meeting, so its no anyway

arbguy 2026-07-05 19:13:09

people are trying to scam timezone, and others are just gambling that they'll start super early in the morning and it will be a qualifying meeting

people are trying to scam timezone, and others are just gambling that they'll start super early in the morning and it will be a qualifying meeting

Diplopia 2026-07-05 19:13:25

Timezone scam was a joke I think

Timezone scam was a joke I think

Abhi 2026-07-05 19:13:41

Its not a joke

Its not a joke

Diplopia 2026-07-05 19:14:12

Not that the timezone is a factor in local time, the whole NYC not doing dst thing

Not that the timezone is a factor in local time, the whole NYC not doing dst thing

arbguy 2026-07-05 19:15:39

people think nyc is going to revert back to no daylight savings next week?

people think nyc is going to revert back to no daylight savings next week?

Try Hard On Sofa 𓆩✪𓆪 2026-07-05 19:19:16

those 50 IQ clowns keep imagining they’ll wake up, brush their teeth and casually discuss Hormuz over breakfast

those 50 IQ clowns keep imagining they’ll wake up, brush their teeth and casually discuss Hormuz over breakfast

arbguy 2026-07-05 19:20:45

still won't count, would need to be confirmed that it's part of a newly convened qualifying round

still won't count, would need to be confirmed that it's part of a newly convened qualifying round

motormouthed 2026-07-05 19:21:28

well, july 17 went up after the news, so if you are so sure it should not qualify you have a better trade there

well, july 17 went up after the news, so if you are so sure it should not qualify you have a better trade there

Try Hard On Sofa 𓆩✪𓆪 2026-07-05 19:22:16

*New formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace talks round* Even if the indirect session began early in the morning, it must be part of a new, formally convened "senior-level" round

*New formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace talks round* Even if the indirect session began early in the morning, it must be part of a new, formally convened "senior-level" round

theta-thunberg 2026-07-05 19:23:57

i dont think 10c is at fair that we get both: - qualifying meetings - that start at or before midnight in this so-called "Eastern Time" - and get enough reporting to push that narrative through

i dont think 10c is at fair that we get both: - qualifying meetings - that start at or before midnight in this so-called "Eastern Time" - and get enough reporting to push that narrative through

arbguy 2026-07-05 19:25:13

until the senior level meeting actually occurs it cannot be confirmed therefore any potential prep meetings cannot be attributed to a senior level meeting

until the senior level meeting actually occurs it cannot be confirmed therefore any potential prep meetings cannot be attributed to a senior level meeting

arbguy 2026-07-05 19:27:02

you think there can be confirmation that the prep meetings are preparing for a qualifying senior level meeting before that senior meeting has even happend?

you think there can be confirmation that the prep meetings are preparing for a qualifying senior level meeting before that senior meeting has even happend?

arbguy 2026-07-05 19:27:30

or do you think this is the special market where information that comes out after the deadline will count?

or do you think this is the special market where information that comes out after the deadline will count?

arbguy 2026-07-05 19:29:03

still wouldn't be a confirmed prep meeting given the senior level meeting may not actually happen

still wouldn't be a confirmed prep meeting given the senior level meeting may not actually happen

Try Hard On Sofa 𓆩✪𓆪 2026-07-05 19:31:09

yep, not to mention, the US and Iran haven’t even officially confirmed the July 11 Pakistan meeting yet lmao

yep, not to mention, the US and Iran haven’t even officially confirmed the July 11 Pakistan meeting yet lmao

arbguy 2026-07-05 19:35:49

it's also 9am not 10am, stop scamming

it's also 9am not 10am, stop scamming

Arman 2026-07-05 19:35:54

Market seems the think it will be 50/50 that it will be high level tho

Market seems the think it will be 50/50 that it will be high level tho

arbguy 2026-07-05 19:37:16

you need it to be confirmed by 9am local time as high level and having started

you need it to be confirmed by 9am local time as high level and having started

residual 2026-07-05 19:40:43

this is a banger argument, Y seems so underpriced ngl

this is a banger argument, Y seems so underpriced ngl

Try Hard On Sofa 𓆩✪𓆪 2026-07-05 19:41:04

**However, keep in mind that as of now: White House, the US State Department, Iran’s Foreign Ministry and Pakistan’s FO have all remained silent about July 11 The only sources reporting it are Al Hadath + Al Arabiya (Saudi-owned) and Dawn citing anonymous diplomatic sources**

**However, keep in mind that as of now: White House, the US State Department, Iran’s Foreign Ministry and Pakistan’s FO have all remained silent about July 11 The only sources reporting it are Al Hadath + Al Arabiya (Saudi-owned) and Dawn citing anonymous diplomatic sources**

arbguy 2026-07-05 19:41:29

if the high level hasn't occurred yet by market deadline there is no way to confirm that the low level prep was part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round

if the high level hasn't occurred yet by market deadline there is no way to confirm that the low level prep was part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round

Try Hard On Sofa 𓆩✪𓆪 2026-07-05 19:43:30

*"Neither Washington, Tehran, nor Islamabad had officially confirmed the July 11 date as of July 4. Al Hadath reported that the Iranian delegation's composition remains pending finalization following Khamenei's funeral ceremonies, which run through July 9 across Tehran, Qom, and Mashhad"*

*"Neither Washington, Tehran, nor Islamabad had officially confirmed the July 11 date as of July 4. Al Hadath reported that the Iranian delegation's composition remains pending finalization following Khamenei's funeral ceremonies, which run through July 9 across Tehran, Qom, and Mashhad"*

residual 2026-07-05 19:47:58

yeah but nothing changed right you mean people now realised the meeting itself is uncertain after pumping a market based on meeting time.

yeah but nothing changed right you mean people now realised the meeting itself is uncertain after pumping a market based on meeting time.

arbguy 2026-07-05 19:49:01

it pumped before didn't it? or did some idiots buy becuase of DST scam?

it pumped before didn't it? or did some idiots buy becuase of DST scam?

residual 2026-07-05 19:51:46

no lol, jul 17 was still at 45c before this tz scam, now it came down to 38c coz jul 10 dumped back😂

no lol, jul 17 was still at 45c before this tz scam, now it came down to 38c coz jul 10 dumped back😂