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OpenAI下一个模型市场结算时间引发争议

2026-07-12 · Polymarket · 33 条相关讨论

Samarth 2026-07-12 00:31:06

the previous proposals in may were incorrect. GPT 5.5 instant was already out a few hours before the market was created

the previous proposals in may were incorrect. GPT 5.5 instant was already out a few hours before the market was created

Samarth 2026-07-12 00:31:23

the next model that qualifies is gpt-5.6-sol-xhigh, the voice model is not a text model

the next model that qualifies is gpt-5.6-sol-xhigh, the voice model is not a text model

General Obligation 2026-07-12 00:43:47

No, the strikes were there before 5.5 instant. Look at the 1500 strike - that was created May 1st @ 6:09 PM EST. May 5th - instant released May 8th - premiered on Arena https://x.com/arena/status/2052876951329919383?s=20

No, the strikes were there before 5.5 instant. Look at the 1500 strike - that was created May 1st @ 6:09 PM EST. May 5th - instant released May 8th - premiered on Arena https://x.com/arena/status/2052876951329919383?s=20

Samarth 2026-07-12 00:44:17

yes I know it arrived late on arena.ai, but the model was released before the market

yes I know it arrived late on arena.ai, but the model was released before the market

Samarth 2026-07-12 00:44:41

the market specifically says "the next model released by OpenAI"

the market specifically says "the next model released by OpenAI"

General Obligation 2026-07-12 00:46:05

Before what market exactly? The 1500 strike was created on May 1st, 4 days before instant was released. Check it on PM

Before what market exactly? The 1500 strike was created on May 1st, 4 days before instant was released. Check it on PM

Samarth 2026-07-12 00:46:42

1450+ created May 5, 2026, 7:38 PM ET

1450+ created May 5, 2026, 7:38 PM ET

Samarth 2026-07-12 00:48:25

ohh I see what's going on, you're right the resolved strikes may be legit

ohh I see what's going on, you're right the resolved strikes may be legit

Samarth 2026-07-12 00:48:53

unresolved ones still make most sense to resolve on 5.6 scores imo

unresolved ones still make most sense to resolve on 5.6 scores imo

Samarth 2026-07-12 00:49:18

you could also argue that the grok by xAI markets were not eligible because they renamed to SpaceXAI but they resolved anyways

you could also argue that the grok by xAI markets were not eligible because they renamed to SpaceXAI but they resolved anyways

Samarth 2026-07-12 00:49:52

Markets are interpreted according to their intended subject, not by exploiting unrelated technicalities

Markets are interpreted according to their intended subject, not by exploiting unrelated technicalities

General Obligation 2026-07-12 00:50:42

lol one would think, but this is PM.

lol one would think, but this is PM.

Samarth 2026-07-12 00:50:51

actually hollup nobody has proposed for those either 😭

actually hollup nobody has proposed for those either 😭

Samarth 2026-07-12 00:51:07

https://polymarket.com/event/next-grok-model-text-arena-debut-20260708011851337 this one is past due as well lmao, i sold already

https://polymarket.com/event/next-grok-model-text-arena-debut-20260708011851337 this one is past due as well lmao, i sold already

General Obligation 2026-07-12 00:54:02

lol 50K share order @ .03c N now up on the OpenAI next model market

lol 50K share order @ .03c N now up on the OpenAI next model market

General Obligation 2026-07-12 00:57:51

As far as the GPT market goes, the voice model is technically a GPT model as well. But thankfully, those rules specify that the model must be added to Text Arena in order to qualify.

As far as the GPT market goes, the voice model is technically a GPT model as well. But thankfully, those rules specify that the model must be added to Text Arena in order to qualify.

Samarth 2026-07-12 01:07:33

best time to short, NO already going up

best time to short, NO already going up

cqk 2026-07-12 02:07:49

I've got some orders up if you think this will work lol

I've got some orders up if you think this will work lol

cqk 2026-07-12 02:07:57

they're resolvable imo

they're resolvable imo

Samarth 2026-07-12 02:13:18

nah not gonna risk too much, I put in my $8 already

nah not gonna risk too much, I put in my $8 already

Samarth 2026-07-12 02:15:41

yeah honestly it would be the better future precedent if these resolve

yeah honestly it would be the better future precedent if these resolve

Samarth 2026-07-12 02:16:08

no harm shorting a tiny amount tho

no harm shorting a tiny amount tho

Hakei 2026-07-12 14:16:59

Why doesn't gpt-5.6-sol-xhigh qualify?

Why doesn't gpt-5.6-sol-xhigh qualify?

Hakei 2026-07-12 14:18:13

Style control is "on" by default with their link is why

Style control is "on" by default with their link is why

Hakei 2026-07-12 14:18:23

Why the hell doesn't the URL take you to the off endpoint

Why the hell doesn't the URL take you to the off endpoint

MajesticWalrus 2026-07-12 14:24:08

the new model doesnt have to show on the lb, idk if the orders on the book r just old or someone is cucking

the new model doesnt have to show on the lb, idk if the orders on the book r just old or someone is cucking

MajesticWalrus 2026-07-12 14:25:05

was also gpt-5.5-instant-mini

was also gpt-5.5-instant-mini

MajesticWalrus 2026-07-12 14:26:59

if a model changing from preview to general access counted why shouldnt that

if a model changing from preview to general access counted why shouldnt that

MajesticWalrus 2026-07-12 14:31:02

the market is an old one with the unupdated rules, the model being added to arena lb isnt the countdown trigger

the market is an old one with the unupdated rules, the model being added to arena lb isnt the countdown trigger

MajesticWalrus 2026-07-12 14:33:59

https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/models/gpt-realtime-2.1-mini this is a text to text model technically

https://developers.openai.com/api/docs/models/gpt-realtime-2.1-mini this is a text to text model technically

MajesticWalrus 2026-07-12 14:55:10

damn no one cares about my cuck <:SAD:664300899555999754> still dont quite get the difference between this and current situtation lmfao

damn no one cares about my cuck <:SAD:664300899555999754> still dont quite get the difference between this and current situtation lmfao