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BTC市场最后几秒价格操纵和反操纵措施讨论

2026-07-16 · Polymarket · 22 条相关讨论

Dillo 2026-07-16 03:01:41

Instead of the resolution being decided by what the BTC price is at the moment of resolution, the market would settle based on the average prices of the last minute. This is supposed to stop manipulation by making it much more expensive to change the BTC price for the whole minute rather than just the last few seconds of the market window.

Instead of the resolution being decided by what the BTC price is at the moment of resolution, the market would settle based on the average prices of the last minute. This is supposed to stop manipulation by making it much more expensive to change the BTC price for the whole minute rather than just the last few seconds of the market window.

Dillo 2026-07-16 03:15:28

I was in a position and in the last few seconds the market flipped drastically. I understand that this is how it goes sometimes, but the reality is when you backtest a certain strategy that works, and then as soon as you put real money on the line and all of a sudden the market behaves way differently than your backtests it’s clear there is manipulation.

I was in a position and in the last few seconds the market flipped drastically. I understand that this is how it goes sometimes, but the reality is when you backtest a certain strategy that works, and then as soon as you put real money on the line and all of a sudden the market behaves way differently than your backtests it’s clear there is manipulation.

Dillo 2026-07-16 03:16:08

Do not be fooled. The people providing liquidity are not in the market of losing money.

Do not be fooled. The people providing liquidity are not in the market of losing money.

Dillo 2026-07-16 03:16:58

They will tilt the market in order to unwind their positions.

They will tilt the market in order to unwind their positions.

blunkoed 2026-07-16 03:18:48

you're saying liquidity providers (market makets) manipulate the market?

you're saying liquidity providers (market makets) manipulate the market?

Dillo 2026-07-16 03:19:51

If they can’t merge them for breakeven they may have to change the outcome.

If they can’t merge them for breakeven they may have to change the outcome.

blunkoed 2026-07-16 03:23:14

there's a paper on arxiv that was published this month about manip, i'm sure it'll help you understand

there's a paper on arxiv that was published this month about manip, i'm sure it'll help you understand

egolo 2026-07-16 05:35:27

Yeah, so I'm a small market maker suffering from manipulators... Manipulators are especially bad for me since I'm putting out some quotes *all the time*, so manipulators can just buy *any* of my quotes and then turn around the outcome I'm probably not their main target since I'm so small, but this should just go to show that market makers are suffering from manipulators (too). I'd even argue that makers suffer more from this than takers, but that's probably written with a biased mind

Yeah, so I'm a small market maker suffering from manipulators... Manipulators are especially bad for me since I'm putting out some quotes *all the time*, so manipulators can just buy *any* of my quotes and then turn around the outcome I'm probably not their main target since I'm so small, but this should just go to show that market makers are suffering from manipulators (too). I'd even argue that makers suffer more from this than takers, but that's probably written with a biased mind

richlb 2026-07-16 15:12:19

<a:thinking:1479896605862920222> Manipulation is becoming frequent again.

<a:thinking:1479896605862920222> Manipulation is becoming frequent again.

Penps 2026-07-16 15:33:07

What’s manipulative about btc order flow?it’s pretty directional

What’s manipulative about btc order flow?it’s pretty directional

Sandels 2026-07-16 16:47:43

more manipulation in the last 24 hrs?

more manipulation in the last 24 hrs?

Emily 2026-07-16 16:52:55

how does manipulators work?

how does manipulators work?

Sandels 2026-07-16 16:53:06

btc-updown-5m-1784191800 for example

btc-updown-5m-1784191800 for example

Nemo 2026-07-16 16:53:15

They pay money to polymarket and polymarket makes them win

They pay money to polymarket and polymarket makes them win

Emily 2026-07-16 16:54:46

I thought the price flip in last 10 - 20 sec is the manipulating.

I thought the price flip in last 10 - 20 sec is the manipulating.

Emily 2026-07-16 16:55:15

I have seen such patterns many times these days.

I have seen such patterns many times these days.

oliver 2026-07-16 17:13:57

is manipulation wrong if its stated on the UI?

is manipulation wrong if its stated on the UI?

oliver 2026-07-16 17:14:28

like mb if they just embrace it but be forward about it, and let things naturally play out

like mb if they just embrace it but be forward about it, and let things naturally play out

oliver 2026-07-16 17:14:50

mb show hints for it

mb show hints for it

oliver 2026-07-16 17:15:11

or worst take ever<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251>

or worst take ever<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251>

oliver 2026-07-16 17:15:34

<@1361217824776786031> tap in

<@1361217824776786031> tap in

zoltar02 2026-07-16 18:40:04

Are users allowed to manipulate empty order books in order to get around combo mm's filters to get unrealistic odds on combos? Is it fair game or should they be reported? <@930737463163494430> <@1356604771208790198>

Are users allowed to manipulate empty order books in order to get around combo mm's filters to get unrealistic odds on combos? Is it fair game or should they be reported? <@930737463163494430> <@1356604771208790198>