PolymarketThat's a vastly different statement
That's a vastly different statement
Ohio Sharpe参与话题 29消息总数 825
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共 825 条，显示第 1-50 条We are saying it will massively reduce it
We are saying it will massively reduce it
Who says it will solve it? Absolutely noone says that Not a single person
Who says it will solve it? Absolutely noone says that Not a single person
But they'd make way more money right? Like I don't get this argument Your money comes from market volumes If market volumes go up, you will make more If a lower % of current volumes go to manipulators You will also make more
But they'd make way more money right? Like I don't get this argument Your money comes from market volumes If market volumes go up, you will make more If a lower % of current volumes go to manipulators You will also make more
I wouldn't want it no
I wouldn't want it no
A/B testing for this is inappropriate. Running both TWAP and none TWAP at the same time is very silly as a 'test'
A/B testing for this is inappropriate. Running both TWAP and none TWAP at the same time is very silly as a 'test'
So it's just all going to go up in flames
So it's just all going to go up in flames
I don't think we'll see, because I don't think they'll give TWAP a proper go
I don't think we'll see, because I don't think they'll give TWAP a proper go
Things can't get worse
Things can't get worse
Bro it's all already fucked up
Bro it's all already fucked up
Alright, but I think you're missing the most important argument - let's think of pnl in terms of volume capture Do you make more money in A) current volumes with no TWAP B) 25% lower volumes with TWAP clearly we will all make more money in B. Like even with lower volumes. Because so much share of the pnl/volume goes to manipulators at the moment.
Alright, but I think you're missing the most important argument - let's think of pnl in terms of volume capture Do you make more money in A) current volumes with no TWAP B) 25% lower volumes with TWAP clearly we will all make more money in B. Like even with lower volumes. Because so much share of the pnl/volume goes to manipulators at the moment.
And TWAP will substantially lower the manipulation
And TWAP will substantially lower the manipulation
Exactly? Lol?
Exactly? Lol?
- Volumes are at all time lows, - Volumes that do exist have large portion of pnl captured going to manipulators pockets - Kalshi volumes are way higher and they do TWAP - Even if it won't stop manipulation, it will certainly lower it substantially
- Volumes are at all time lows, - Volumes that do exist have large portion of pnl captured going to manipulators pockets - Kalshi volumes are way higher and they do TWAP - Even if it won't stop manipulation, it will certainly lower it substantially
I am still fairly certain anyone opposing TWAP either doesn't understand what they're saying or are just directly benefiting/are a manipulator
I am still fairly certain anyone opposing TWAP either doesn't understand what they're saying or are just directly benefiting/are a manipulator
turn it off maybe?
turn it off maybe?
<@336497005096337408> you know claude is pretty good these days
<@336497005096337408> you know claude is pretty good these days
unavoidable - as in completely eradicating manipulation - sure i agree. But reducing it 80%+? nah - very possible.
unavoidable - as in completely eradicating manipulation - sure i agree. But reducing it 80%+? nah - very possible.
No idea what you mean Kalshi volumes are 4x here, and book is even more thick than that clearly MMs are not afraid to quote. Because they're not losing shit loads to manipulation
No idea what you mean Kalshi volumes are 4x here, and book is even more thick than that clearly MMs are not afraid to quote. Because they're not losing shit loads to manipulation
not to mention the pnl here is not worth the legal risk for most of these guys. BTC futures are regulated in the US. You really need a rogue trader to be running these trades - management would never approve manipulation just to make a few mn
not to mention the pnl here is not worth the legal risk for most of these guys. BTC futures are regulated in the US. You really need a rogue trader to be running these trades - management would never approve manipulation just to make a few mn
I think if you move over to TWAP - most of those guys will stop/do it far less often
I think if you move over to TWAP - most of those guys will stop/do it far less often
third one, probably same, but don't have personal knowledge
third one, probably same, but don't have personal knowledge
In fact I can confirm at least two of those are not trading these markets at all - lol
In fact I can confirm at least two of those are not trading these markets at all - lol
Can confirm at least two of those are not manipulating these markets
Can confirm at least two of those are not manipulating these markets
Hmm if you scroll through announcements or type 250ms in discord search you'll see it
Hmm if you scroll through announcements or type 250ms in discord search you'll see it
He seems to have it out specifically for you lol
He seems to have it out specifically for you lol
Taker delay
Taker delay
Yes
Yes
yes?
yes?
yes but it wouldn't change 300ms to 50ms for example
yes but it wouldn't change 300ms to 50ms for example
#limbs
#limbs
Fully agree
Fully agree
Pls
Pls
Pending
Pending
<@304783580113141760>
<@304783580113141760>
The issue is that by not making the executive decision and doing the switch, and 'testing' it instead, poly are facilitating the manipulators' trading. That is facilitation of theft and market manipulation
The issue is that by not making the executive decision and doing the switch, and 'testing' it instead, poly are facilitating the manipulators' trading. That is facilitation of theft and market manipulation
It does right? If manipulators make 5% pnl on volume traded, then they don't need to do as much volume to make money For the rest of us our captures are close to 1% So the rest of us are willing to do 5x the volume to make money Meaning more fees for poly if they reduce manipulation
It does right? If manipulators make 5% pnl on volume traded, then they don't need to do as much volume to make money For the rest of us our captures are close to 1% So the rest of us are willing to do 5x the volume to make money Meaning more fees for poly if they reduce manipulation
They're net up several million last 2 months alone
They're net up several million last 2 months alone
But on the poly leg they're not losing money
But on the poly leg they're not losing money
That's crazy
That's crazy
Manipulators pnl per volume traded is 5%
Manipulators pnl per volume traded is 5%
The rest of us are net losing
The rest of us are net losing
If manipualtors make money
If manipualtors make money
This is a zero sum game
This is a zero sum game
This is completely wrong
This is completely wrong
It does not
It does not
Poly is the zero sum leg It's where we're all missing out
Poly is the zero sum leg It's where we're all missing out
We don't profit from those costs
We don't profit from those costs
Like costs to move are fully irrelevant
Like costs to move are fully irrelevant
Specifically on the Poly leg. That's all we care about right?
Specifically on the Poly leg. That's all we care about right?
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