秋田预测市场 · Discord 审计

US-Iran 永久和平协议市场 UMA 投票争议

2026-06-18 · Polymarket · 21 条相关讨论

E.L. 2026-06-17 20:08:42

guys UMA WHALES ARE RIGGING THIS MARKET "US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?" how are we supposed to trust POLYAMRKET "Market Integrity" and all that nonsense when UMA whales are abusing their power routinely (this is nto the first time somethign like thsi si happening) and nobody is doing anything to stop it. there literaly has been no permanent peace deal between US and Iran, not yet, there wil very likely be one, but there hasn't been any yet. regardless this market on polymarket is literaly resolving yes, even thought none of the written conditions in the market terms have officially been met yet.

guys UMA WHALES ARE RIGGING THIS MARKET "US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?" how are we supposed to trust POLYAMRKET "Market Integrity" and all that nonsense when UMA whales are abusing their power routinely (this is nto the first time somethign like thsi si happening) and nobody is doing anything to stop it. there literaly has been no permanent peace deal between US and Iran, not yet, there wil very likely be one, but there hasn't been any yet. regardless this market on polymarket is literaly resolving yes, even thought none of the written conditions in the market terms have officially been met yet.

Ozymandias 2026-06-17 22:09:42

as soon as Kalshis legal in my country I can't wait to get off the UMA cartels "consensus of credible reporting" train

as soon as Kalshis legal in my country I can't wait to get off the UMA cartels "consensus of credible reporting" train

Egzodius 2026-06-17 22:10:37

yeah im quitting polymarket too, its not that i lost a lot but i do not trust polymarket resolutions anymore

yeah im quitting polymarket too, its not that i lost a lot but i do not trust polymarket resolutions anymore

Jostein 2026-06-17 23:28:59

Someone tell me like im a poodle how US x Iran *permanent* peace deal can resolve to YES while at the same time it's for 60 days while they work on the real permanent peace deal? 🐩

Someone tell me like im a poodle how US x Iran *permanent* peace deal can resolve to YES while at the same time it's for 60 days while they work on the real permanent peace deal? 🐩

TimoYouth | Paradise Tycoon 2026-06-18 01:13:21

"Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi confirmed a **new round of negotiations on reaching a final peace deal** with the US would begin in Switzerland the same day." - BBC News "The deal will extend a ceasefire for another 60 days, during which the sides will negotiate details of a final agreement." BBC News idk even know why this stuff needs to be posted, it's obviously a framework agreement which (hopefully) will lead to peace deal someday, but we're not there yet.

"Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi confirmed a **new round of negotiations on reaching a final peace deal** with the US would begin in Switzerland the same day." - BBC News "The deal will extend a ceasefire for another 60 days, during which the sides will negotiate details of a final agreement." BBC News idk even know why this stuff needs to be posted, it's obviously a framework agreement which (hopefully) will lead to peace deal someday, but we're not there yet.

Kenny 2026-06-18 02:56:14

People buying on 99.9 on something that in reality hasn't happened because the UMA vote is trash is really a thing to witness <:pepecry:1480174599093096560>

People buying on 99.9 on something that in reality hasn't happened because the UMA vote is trash is really a thing to witness <:pepecry:1480174599093096560>

033033033 2026-06-18 03:04:30

U know half of these ppl here are the same group

U know half of these ppl here are the same group

033033033 2026-06-18 03:06:03

This group bonded over 50mil on microstrategy market across accounts, they will put a lot more into this

This group bonded over 50mil on microstrategy market across accounts, they will put a lot more into this

Kenny 2026-06-18 03:06:47

There was never a permanent peace deal. Trump made it very clear the US never considered this a permanent anything.

There was never a permanent peace deal. Trump made it very clear the US never considered this a permanent anything.

Kenny 2026-06-18 03:11:16

> It's a memorandum of understanding. If it doesn't get done in 60 days, that's alright. We go back to bombing. If that doesn't sound like a permanent peace deal, what does, amirite?

> It's a memorandum of understanding. If it doesn't get done in 60 days, that's alright. We go back to bombing. If that doesn't sound like a permanent peace deal, what does, amirite?

jimmerish 2026-06-18 03:13:06

I just hope the peace continues. If the conflict continues, that might be the end for polymarket

I just hope the peace continues. If the conflict continues, that might be the end for polymarket

Kenny 2026-06-18 03:16:46

Required: > language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities US interpretation: > It's a memorandum of understanding. If it doesn't get done in 60 days, that's alright. We go back to bombing. Polymarket: 🤡 _that sounds about right_

Required: > language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities US interpretation: > It's a memorandum of understanding. If it doesn't get done in 60 days, that's alright. We go back to bombing. Polymarket: 🤡 _that sounds about right_

033033033 2026-06-18 03:23:45

Well first of all, learn how UMA works. Consensus has already been reached for this market, meaning it is absolutely guaranteed to go Yes. So once you see its reached, u can put money in risk free. Of course, sharp traders already know which way they are going to vote beforehand because of their experience, so they can buy in earlier at better prices

Well first of all, learn how UMA works. Consensus has already been reached for this market, meaning it is absolutely guaranteed to go Yes. So once you see its reached, u can put money in risk free. Of course, sharp traders already know which way they are going to vote beforehand because of their experience, so they can buy in earlier at better prices

Kenny 2026-06-18 03:28:04

Someone should tell Trump that a permanent peace deal has already been struck, according to Polymarket 🤡

Someone should tell Trump that a permanent peace deal has already been struck, according to Polymarket 🤡

Car 2026-06-18 03:51:02

im never betting on polymarket again. rigged site. full of scams. UMA whales are getting richer every day.

im never betting on polymarket again. rigged site. full of scams. UMA whales are getting richer every day.

Lerom 2026-06-18 08:59:41

Formal Challenge to Yes Resolution on Market “US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026” – Request for No Resolution Dear Sir or Madam, I formally contest the current (or proposed) Yes resolution on the following Polymarket market: https://polymarket.com/event/us-and-iran-sign-an-agreement-byptptpt-20260611221049850/us-and-iran-sign-an-agreement-by-june-15-2026-20260611221049851 Factual Arguments: Lack of Official Iranian Proof: There is no public statement or official Iranian communication (IRNA, Tasnim, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, President Pezeshkian or Speaker Ghalibaf) that explicitly confirms an electronic or any other signature by Iran on or before June 15, 2026 (23:59 ET). Iranian sources only mention approval and the formal ceremony scheduled for June 19. US Signatures After the Deadline: President Trump physically signed a copy of the MOU on June 17, 2026 in Versailles (confirmed by Dan Scavino). This demonstrates that the final signature did not occur within the required timeframe. Unilateral Confirmations: All mentions of an electronic signature on June 15 come exclusively from US sources. This does not constitute a verifiable bilateral agreement signed by authorized representatives of both parties. Market Rules: A Yes resolution requires a signature (electronic signatures accepted) by June 15. Without bilateral proof and given the US physical signature on June 17, credible reporting consensus is not sufficiently established. Regarding Media Consensus: The media consensus should not have the power to validate a signature based solely on unilateral American statements without official Iranian confirmation. Allowing this enables media outlets to mislead or exaggerate without proper bilateral verification, which contradicts the spirit of Polymarket’s rules that require a real and verifiable agreement. I therefore request: Rejection of the current Yes proposal. Resolution of the market as No. Publication of the evidence used for the current resolution.

Formal Challenge to Yes Resolution on Market “US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026” – Request for No Resolution Dear Sir or Madam, I formally contest the current (or proposed) Yes resolution on the following Polymarket market: https://polymarket.com/event/us-and-iran-sign-an-agreement-byptptpt-20260611221049850/us-and-iran-sign-an-agreement-by-june-15-2026-20260611221049851 Factual Arguments: Lack of Official Iranian Proof: There is no public statement or official Iranian communication (IRNA, Tasnim, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, President Pezeshkian or Speaker Ghalibaf) that explicitly confirms an electronic or any other signature by Iran on or before June 15, 2026 (23:59 ET). Iranian sources only mention approval and the formal ceremony scheduled for June 19. US Signatures After the Deadline: President Trump physically signed a copy of the MOU on June 17, 2026 in Versailles (confirmed by Dan Scavino). This demonstrates that the final signature did not occur within the required timeframe. Unilateral Confirmations: All mentions of an electronic signature on June 15 come exclusively from US sources. This does not constitute a verifiable bilateral agreement signed by authorized representatives of both parties. Market Rules: A Yes resolution requires a signature (electronic signatures accepted) by June 15. Without bilateral proof and given the US physical signature on June 17, credible reporting consensus is not sufficiently established. Regarding Media Consensus: The media consensus should not have the power to validate a signature based solely on unilateral American statements without official Iranian confirmation. Allowing this enables media outlets to mislead or exaggerate without proper bilateral verification, which contradicts the spirit of Polymarket’s rules that require a real and verifiable agreement. I therefore request: Rejection of the current Yes proposal. Resolution of the market as No. Publication of the evidence used for the current resolution.

Paarth 2026-06-18 13:08:32

I had put on no bec no permanent peace deal was done

I had put on no bec no permanent peace deal was done

Han 2026-06-18 15:03:23

I want to congratulate everyone on yet another high-profile scam by the Polymarket whales! The market for June 13, 2026 (https://polymarket.com/ru/event/us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by/us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-june-13?locale=event&category=us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by&slug=us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-june-13) which once again proves that if the whales decide to arrange the second coming of Christ, they could easily pull it off through the Polymarket platform.

I want to congratulate everyone on yet another high-profile scam by the Polymarket whales! The market for June 13, 2026 (https://polymarket.com/ru/event/us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by/us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-june-13?locale=event&category=us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by&slug=us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-june-13) which once again proves that if the whales decide to arrange the second coming of Christ, they could easily pull it off through the Polymarket platform.

Han 2026-06-18 15:04:04

I want to congratulate everyone on yet another high-profile scam by the Polymarket whales! The market for June 13, 2026 (https://polymarket.com/ru/event/us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by/us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-june-13?locale=event&category=us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by&slug=us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-june-13) which once again proves that if the whales decide to arrange the second coming of Christ, they could easily pull it off through the Polymarket platform.

I want to congratulate everyone on yet another high-profile scam by the Polymarket whales! The market for June 13, 2026 (https://polymarket.com/ru/event/us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by/us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-june-13?locale=event&category=us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by&slug=us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-june-13) which once again proves that if the whales decide to arrange the second coming of Christ, they could easily pull it off through the Polymarket platform.

Woodchip Daddy 2026-06-18 18:27:11

ScamMarket has a chief legal officer https://x.com/HereComesKumar It would be a shame if we all DM'ed him evidence of what a fucking legal scam his company is.

ScamMarket has a chief legal officer https://x.com/HereComesKumar It would be a shame if we all DM'ed him evidence of what a fucking legal scam his company is.