秋田预测市场 · Discord 审计

天气预测市场出现疑似幻影挂单,无法成交

2026-07-08 · Polymarket · 72 条相关讨论

weathergirl 2026-07-07 22:54:22

<@707597210845446214> is expiration the only planned fix for the liquidity rewards spoofing? would be super easy to continue doing the same think without that order type no??

<@707597210845446214> is expiration the only planned fix for the liquidity rewards spoofing? would be super easy to continue doing the same think without that order type no??

Frank Rizzo | 🆎 2026-07-07 23:39:41

The spammers are ruining the comments section

The spammers are ruining the comments section

derek 2026-07-07 23:56:36

can someone explain wahts going on with people talking about ghost fills rn? is it the saem mechanism as before or is it different. like is it u submit order it says filled but u get 0 shares or what

can someone explain wahts going on with people talking about ghost fills rn? is it the saem mechanism as before or is it different. like is it u submit order it says filled but u get 0 shares or what

Hans 2026-07-07 23:59:34

yes, pretty much the same

yes, pretty much the same

derek 2026-07-08 00:05:09

what mkts is it happening on

what mkts is it happening on

mel 2026-07-08 00:08:31

What is a ghost fill

What is a ghost fill

Stseq 2026-07-08 00:10:31

Ten times in a row, I tried to fill an order for an amount currently showing in the order book, and ten times I got absolutely nothing. How can bots cancel their orders before my order? It feels like there are privileged users who can just decide whether to take a trade or not, allowing them to manipulate the market completely risk-free. It should be fixed

Ten times in a row, I tried to fill an order for an amount currently showing in the order book, and ten times I got absolutely nothing. How can bots cancel their orders before my order? It feels like there are privileged users who can just decide whether to take a trade or not, allowing them to manipulate the market completely risk-free. It should be fixed

sakula1 2026-07-08 00:17:22

These are large orders sitting in the order book at or near the market price, but when you try to buy into them, they vanish, and your buy order doesn't get filled. It’s essentially fake liquidity—it appears in the book but isn't actually available for execution, serving only to farm rewards. This is currently happening everywhere, across all weather markets that offer rewards.

These are large orders sitting in the order book at or near the market price, but when you try to buy into them, they vanish, and your buy order doesn't get filled. It’s essentially fake liquidity—it appears in the book but isn't actually available for execution, serving only to farm rewards. This is currently happening everywhere, across all weather markets that offer rewards.

mel 2026-07-08 00:18:49

Oh interesting ty!

Oh interesting ty!

Votobias 2026-07-08 03:15:56

<@624575779023355904> <@707597210845446214> The order books — especially the daily temperature markets — are being spoofed to farm liquidity rewards, and in the last ~24h it's gotten dramatically worse. Actors park orders right near the mid, just above the reward minimum size, and place/cancel them within milliseconds so they're only actually on the book a few percent of the time. It's fake liquidity: it earns them LP rewards while never intending to fill, and it gives takers phantom fills against orders that vanish before the trade lands. It's making these markets barely tradeable. One of the actors doing this is https://polymarket.com/0xa8cd5becc42d67ebb1988207761a81b1379f0d51?tab=activity. Please prioritize a fix (e.g. a minimum resting time and/or a place-to-cancel ratio limit for reward eligibility). Last time it took months of pushing here to get the ghost-fill issue resolved — hoping this one moves quicker. 🙏

<@624575779023355904> <@707597210845446214> The order books — especially the daily temperature markets — are being spoofed to farm liquidity rewards, and in the last ~24h it's gotten dramatically worse. Actors park orders right near the mid, just above the reward minimum size, and place/cancel them within milliseconds so they're only actually on the book a few percent of the time. It's fake liquidity: it earns them LP rewards while never intending to fill, and it gives takers phantom fills against orders that vanish before the trade lands. It's making these markets barely tradeable. One of the actors doing this is https://polymarket.com/0xa8cd5becc42d67ebb1988207761a81b1379f0d51?tab=activity. Please prioritize a fix (e.g. a minimum resting time and/or a place-to-cancel ratio limit for reward eligibility). Last time it took months of pushing here to get the ghost-fill issue resolved — hoping this one moves quicker. 🙏

Sterling 2026-07-08 03:16:10

<@1402701322775695391>

<@1402701322775695391>

Sterling 2026-07-08 03:16:32

keaton we've lost bosa so you're <#1478933105262858321>'s bridge and hope to get through to the team handling climate

keaton we've lost bosa so you're <#1478933105262858321>'s bridge and hope to get through to the team handling climate

Sterling 2026-07-08 03:16:54

<:pepecry:1255729200145629184>

<:pepecry:1255729200145629184>

Imperator 2026-07-08 05:17:00

It's strange that the account you sent has many buy transactions. That means its liquidity is actually being used.

It's strange that the account you sent has many buy transactions. That means its liquidity is actually being used.

Votobias 2026-07-08 05:27:39

compared to how much liquidity rewards he gets, this is nothing. and in addition when he gets filled, he instantly sells for a loss.

compared to how much liquidity rewards he gets, this is nothing. and in addition when he gets filled, he instantly sells for a loss.

Modali 2026-07-08 06:15:40

That’s not ghost fills

That’s not ghost fills

Votobias 2026-07-08 06:25:59

it's not ghost fills. it's just hammering on the orderbook with post-only orders and cancel them such that they live for less than 10ms. It's not really possible to buy these orders, so they just get liquidity rewards without the risk of getting filled.

it's not ghost fills. it's just hammering on the orderbook with post-only orders and cancel them such that they live for less than 10ms. It's not really possible to buy these orders, so they just get liquidity rewards without the risk of getting filled.

Imperator 2026-07-08 06:26:21

You're getting really confused. At first, you wrote that he was going to execute orders. You described him as a representative of "ghost orders." Their orders are truly never executed, and they receive rewards without any risk. But now you agree that his orders are often executed. How much reward he receives is his business—his liquidity is being used. What he sells at a loss—what difference does it make to you? It's his loss, that's the whole point of market making. Incidentally, it's immediately obvious that you've never made money from providing liquidity. Otherwise, you'd understand that he earns much less than you think. The only thing I agree with is that there needs to be a minimum time in the order book for rewards to be awarded.

You're getting really confused. At first, you wrote that he was going to execute orders. You described him as a representative of "ghost orders." Their orders are truly never executed, and they receive rewards without any risk. But now you agree that his orders are often executed. How much reward he receives is his business—his liquidity is being used. What he sells at a loss—what difference does it make to you? It's his loss, that's the whole point of market making. Incidentally, it's immediately obvious that you've never made money from providing liquidity. Otherwise, you'd understand that he earns much less than you think. The only thing I agree with is that there needs to be a minimum time in the order book for rewards to be awarded.

Imperator 2026-07-08 06:27:32

Have you seen his trading history? How can he keep buying and selling at huge losses if his orders can't be executed?

Have you seen his trading history? How can he keep buying and selling at huge losses if his orders can't be executed?

Votobias 2026-07-08 06:29:59

It technically can get executed, but if you observe the orderbook they just live for less than 10ms. No taker can react in this time. If you think this is legit, than I also start hammering the orderbook with the same strategy to get rewards....

It technically can get executed, but if you observe the orderbook they just live for less than 10ms. No taker can react in this time. If you think this is legit, than I also start hammering the orderbook with the same strategy to get rewards....

derek 2026-07-08 06:30:07

oh wait is this why ive been seeing orders flicker on and off the book like 500 times per second

oh wait is this why ive been seeing orders flicker on and off the book like 500 times per second

Imperator 2026-07-08 06:31:28

Where did you get the 10 millisecond figure? Did you measure it somehow? You wouldn't even have time to notice such rapid changes with your own eyes. LOL

Where did you get the 10 millisecond figure? Did you measure it somehow? You wouldn't even have time to notice such rapid changes with your own eyes. LOL

derek 2026-07-08 06:31:47

how do u know this person is able to farm rewards this way?

how do u know this person is able to farm rewards this way?

derek 2026-07-08 06:31:58

this has been causing a lot of problems for me today

this has been causing a lot of problems for me today

Votobias 2026-07-08 06:32:01

did you hear of websockets?

did you hear of websockets?

Votobias 2026-07-08 06:32:26

he got $600+ of rewards yesterday

he got $600+ of rewards yesterday

derek 2026-07-08 06:33:04

oh i see

oh i see

derek 2026-07-08 06:33:09

and u actually see this behaviro on webscoekts?

and u actually see this behaviro on webscoekts?

derek 2026-07-08 06:33:20

ive been running a strat with automated execs and its been missing an insane amount today

ive been running a strat with automated execs and its been missing an insane amount today

derek 2026-07-08 06:33:21

is that why

is that why

derek 2026-07-08 06:33:29

im reading his order off the book firign and its gone by the time i hit the book

im reading his order off the book firign and its gone by the time i hit the book

Votobias 2026-07-08 06:33:54

I saw it on the websocket, than I was hammering on the orderbook with taker orders to catch his profile.

I saw it on the websocket, than I was hammering on the orderbook with taker orders to catch his profile.

derek 2026-07-08 06:34:29

oh i see

oh i see

derek 2026-07-08 06:34:33

how long has this been happening

how long has this been happening

derek 2026-07-08 06:34:37

my strats been running for like months

my strats been running for like months

derek 2026-07-08 06:34:41

and today was like genuinely like 5 standard deviations out

and today was like genuinely like 5 standard deviations out

derek 2026-07-08 06:34:47

was it just today

was it just today

Votobias 2026-07-08 06:35:06

I've observed it since about 36 hours.

I've observed it since about 36 hours.

derek 2026-07-08 06:35:27

ok yeah that just about checks out with what ive been seing

ok yeah that just about checks out with what ive been seing

derek 2026-07-08 06:35:30

is that really like not allowed tho

is that really like not allowed tho

derek 2026-07-08 06:35:36

is that considered spoofing

is that considered spoofing

Imperator 2026-07-08 06:36:06

I'm not a programmer. That's why I'm asking where you got this information)

I'm not a programmer. That's why I'm asking where you got this information)

Votobias 2026-07-08 06:38:13

I mean, PM is paying out rewards to accounts which don't really take the risk of getting filled.

I mean, PM is paying out rewards to accounts which don't really take the risk of getting filled.

Imperator 2026-07-08 06:39:31

Yes, yesterday's rewards are impressive, considering the loss was only about $200 (including fee). But I looked further into the history—there were also a lot of trades in recent days, but the rewards were only $5-$25.

Yes, yesterday's rewards are impressive, considering the loss was only about $200 (including fee). But I looked further into the history—there were also a lot of trades in recent days, but the rewards were only $5-$25.

Votobias 2026-07-08 06:40:15

it just started 36 hours ago, before the account was doing something completely unrelated to it

it just started 36 hours ago, before the account was doing something completely unrelated to it

Votobias 2026-07-08 06:40:39

and it is not the only account

and it is not the only account

derek 2026-07-08 06:42:45

have any other people thought the same thing

have any other people thought the same thing

Votobias 2026-07-08 08:10:36

btw today he got $2k+ rewards without almost any risk

btw today he got $2k+ rewards without almost any risk

Votobias 2026-07-08 08:11:05

i dont mind, but i can not trade anymore if the websockets got spammed with these fake orders

i dont mind, but i can not trade anymore if the websockets got spammed with these fake orders

Lightning-fella 2026-07-08 11:25:55

Many fakes orders in the book

Many fakes orders in the book

Lightning-fella 2026-07-08 11:27:02

But polymarket haven’t done anything about it

But polymarket haven’t done anything about it

todrrrb 2026-07-08 13:50:49

Are ghost fills related to the very significant drop in passive fills over the past ~2 days?

Are ghost fills related to the very significant drop in passive fills over the past ~2 days?

todrrrb 2026-07-08 14:28:17

What’s interesting is that it seems to have gotten progressively worse over the last two days. As far as I know, the ghost fill issue was already happening before that.

What’s interesting is that it seems to have gotten progressively worse over the last two days. As far as I know, the ghost fill issue was already happening before that.

Modali 2026-07-08 14:44:50

It has been 2 weeks.

It has been 2 weeks.

todrrrb 2026-07-08 14:49:44

Fills weren't that bad though, it got way worse since sunday

Fills weren't that bad though, it got way worse since sunday

funkyduck 2026-07-08 15:02:55

according to my rebates, i've been getting approx same amount of fills

according to my rebates, i've been getting approx same amount of fills

PPLOVE 2026-07-08 16:26:24

Recently, an issue has emerged in the weather prediction market: the ask price has been consistently displayed on the web, but when you place a limit order at the bid price to try to match it, the order inexplicably disappears, causing your attempt to execute a marketable limit order to become a resting order instead. I am aware that there used to be high-frequency bots placing and canceling orders, yet you could still get filled by placing limit orders—about 50–60% of 10 orders would go through, since those high-frequency cancellations and placements occurred at a certain frequency. However, in the past few days, these high-frequency ask orders have become untouchable; you can only watch them, and once you place an order, it simply cannot be executed against them. I am wondering whether there has been a recent system update that caused this issue, or whether it is a bug in the order matching engine. This problem has occurred dozens of times in just the past few days, and it has not been noticed by just one or two users. We kindly request that the technical team look into this issue.

Recently, an issue has emerged in the weather prediction market: the ask price has been consistently displayed on the web, but when you place a limit order at the bid price to try to match it, the order inexplicably disappears, causing your attempt to execute a marketable limit order to become a resting order instead. I am aware that there used to be high-frequency bots placing and canceling orders, yet you could still get filled by placing limit orders—about 50–60% of 10 orders would go through, since those high-frequency cancellations and placements occurred at a certain frequency. However, in the past few days, these high-frequency ask orders have become untouchable; you can only watch them, and once you place an order, it simply cannot be executed against them. I am wondering whether there has been a recent system update that caused this issue, or whether it is a bug in the order matching engine. This problem has occurred dozens of times in just the past few days, and it has not been noticed by just one or two users. We kindly request that the technical team look into this issue.

PPLOVE 2026-07-08 16:28:33

Has the frequency limit for order placement and cancellation been adjusted, resulting in the current placement/cancellation rate far exceeding previous levels? Or could there be a latency bug in the order matching system that allows the resting order party to monitor whether someone is trying to take their order and cancel it in advance?

Has the frequency limit for order placement and cancellation been adjusted, resulting in the current placement/cancellation rate far exceeding previous levels? Or could there be a latency bug in the order matching system that allows the resting order party to monitor whether someone is trying to take their order and cancel it in advance?

PPLOVE 2026-07-08 16:29:48

Recently, an issue has emerged in the weather prediction market: the ask price has been consistently displayed on the web, but when you place a limit order at the bid price to try to match it, the order inexplicably disappears, causing your attempt to execute a marketable limit order to become a resting order instead. I am aware that there used to be high-frequency bots placing and canceling orders, yet you could still get filled by placing limit orders—about 50–60% of 10 orders would go through, since those high-frequency cancellations and placements occurred at a certain frequency. However, in the past few days, these high-frequency ask orders have become untouchable; you can only watch them, and once you place an order, it simply cannot be executed against them. I am wondering whether there has been a recent system update that caused this issue, or whether it is a bug in the order matching engine. This problem has occurred dozens of times in just the past few days, and it has not been noticed by just one or two users. We kindly request that the technical team look into this issue. Has the frequency limit for order placement and cancellation been adjusted, resulting in the current placement/cancellation rate far exceeding previous levels? Or could there be a latency bug in the order matching system that allows the resting order party to monitor whether someone is trying to take their order and cancel it in advance?

Recently, an issue has emerged in the weather prediction market: the ask price has been consistently displayed on the web, but when you place a limit order at the bid price to try to match it, the order inexplicably disappears, causing your attempt to execute a marketable limit order to become a resting order instead. I am aware that there used to be high-frequency bots placing and canceling orders, yet you could still get filled by placing limit orders—about 50–60% of 10 orders would go through, since those high-frequency cancellations and placements occurred at a certain frequency. However, in the past few days, these high-frequency ask orders have become untouchable; you can only watch them, and once you place an order, it simply cannot be executed against them. I am wondering whether there has been a recent system update that caused this issue, or whether it is a bug in the order matching engine. This problem has occurred dozens of times in just the past few days, and it has not been noticed by just one or two users. We kindly request that the technical team look into this issue. Has the frequency limit for order placement and cancellation been adjusted, resulting in the current placement/cancellation rate far exceeding previous levels? Or could there be a latency bug in the order matching system that allows the resting order party to monitor whether someone is trying to take their order and cancel it in advance?

PPLOVE 2026-07-08 16:30:17

Is this what people refer to as "fake orders" or "phantom orders"?

Is this what people refer to as "fake orders" or "phantom orders"?

PPLOVE 2026-07-08 16:31:13

Users of the weather market speculate that these are fake orders or phantom orders, and they request that the technical team verify this.

Users of the weather market speculate that these are fake orders or phantom orders, and they request that the technical team verify this.

PPLOVE 2026-07-08 16:39:21

<@930737463163494430> Hello, could you please forward the issues I mentioned to the technical team?

<@930737463163494430> Hello, could you please forward the issues I mentioned to the technical team?

PPLOVE 2026-07-08 16:40:29

What I am referring to is likely a phantom order issue—fake orders appearing on the order book that simply cannot be executed, while their creators are still able to collect liquidity rewards and maker rebates.

What I am referring to is likely a phantom order issue—fake orders appearing on the order book that simply cannot be executed, while their creators are still able to collect liquidity rewards and maker rebates.

diesel power 2026-07-08 16:42:02

Will flag, thank you

Will flag, thank you

diesel power 2026-07-08 17:10:06

Yes, this is a known issue.

Yes, this is a known issue.

PPLOVE 2026-07-08 17:10:19

ok thanks

ok thanks

Kepi 2026-07-08 18:20:13

How the f*ck they’re not able to fix this after 2+ weeks is beyond my comprehension. $10B company btw.

How the f*ck they’re not able to fix this after 2+ weeks is beyond my comprehension. $10B company btw.

funkyduck 2026-07-08 19:19:30

the previous version of ghost orders have been around for months, and it was way more egregious

the previous version of ghost orders have been around for months, and it was way more egregious

funkyduck 2026-07-08 19:19:59

(not excusing, I think they're extremely incompetent)

(not excusing, I think they're extremely incompetent)