<@524122609764401174> Is July 9th done for?
<@524122609764401174> Is July 9th done for?
2026-07-14 · Polymarket · 120 条相关讨论
<@524122609764401174> Is July 9th done for?
<@524122609764401174> Is July 9th done for?
<@524122609764401174> Do you think we're in a new era of Polymarket rules and spirit/burden of proof standards have changed materially as compared to 3~6 months ago?
<@524122609764401174> Do you think we're in a new era of Polymarket rules and spirit/burden of proof standards have changed materially as compared to 3~6 months ago?
the way these people have started writing clarifications has changed a lot. i dont think they are even aware of what proof is available and what is not. for july 9th they just wrote wsj, reuters, toi - no urls, no explanation. where does reuters claim there was a hit? toi is incomplete with no region mentioned. I mean this is pathetic. they don't even look at the evidence closely. just quote the rules and say it resolves Y or N.
the way these people have started writing clarifications has changed a lot. i dont think they are even aware of what proof is available and what is not. for july 9th they just wrote wsj, reuters, toi - no urls, no explanation. where does reuters claim there was a hit? toi is incomplete with no region mentioned. I mean this is pathetic. they don't even look at the evidence closely. just quote the rules and say it resolves Y or N.
I think the biggest change is that they now don't provide evidence so clarifying p2 is easier
I think the biggest change is that they now don't provide evidence so clarifying p2 is easier
My post has the reuters and wsj link
My post has the reuters and wsj link
Insane copium
Insane copium
iran saying sth shouldn't matter, iran's claims should be used for attibution. the P2 argument was crap but anyway doesn't matter now.
iran saying sth shouldn't matter, iran's claims should be used for attibution. the P2 argument was crap but anyway doesn't matter now.
If its listed as the resolution source its matters
If its listed as the resolution source its matters
You cant say it doesn’t count if its listed as the resolution source
You cant say it doesn’t count if its listed as the resolution source
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-it-hits-us-military-targets-gulf-prepares-bury-slain-leader-2026-07-09/ this article has no mention of a "hit". it just says iran launched attacks. if you are quoting from the title then you seem a mad man to me.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-it-hits-us-military-targets-gulf-prepares-bury-slain-leader-2026-07-09/ this article has no mention of a "hit". it just says iran launched attacks. if you are quoting from the title then you seem a mad man to me.
No doubt about it. It’s more reality based
No doubt about it. It’s more reality based
Yes - I did notice this. The Ronaldo market with no Getty link (despite this previously happening) and the strike market with no article links (alas, they did name outlets) is a definite change.
Yes - I did notice this. The Ronaldo market with no Getty link (despite this previously happening) and the strike market with no article links (alas, they did name outlets) is a definite change.
Iran says it hits wasn’t enough in the past
Iran says it hits wasn’t enough in the past
Agreed it should be in the article for it to count (the clear title doesn’t count). Do you mind showing me that rule pls
Agreed it should be in the article for it to count (the clear title doesn’t count). Do you mind showing me that rule pls
Post bosa era is everything P2 yes
Post bosa era is everything P2 yes
In the past iran wasnt a resolution source now it is
In the past iran wasnt a resolution source now it is
Not true
Not true
https://klipy.com/gifs/beautiful-amazing-3
https://klipy.com/gifs/beautiful-amazing-3
All previous strike markets had gulf states gov and consensus as a resolution source
All previous strike markets had gulf states gov and consensus as a resolution source
The next time Microstrategy happens I bet it’s going to be a yes
The next time Microstrategy happens I bet it’s going to be a yes
Yeah microstrategy is yes now
Yeah microstrategy is yes now
is that willow guy the reason bosa left?
is that willow guy the reason bosa left?
or was fired?
or was fired?
No one knows for sure
No one knows for sure
But forget bosa
But forget bosa
The real travesty is ppl claiming wsj citing us gov source plus iran statements should resolve the market n
The real travesty is ppl claiming wsj citing us gov source plus iran statements should resolve the market n
We got Bozo, Barkeater and Slippery Seal
We got Bozo, Barkeater and Slippery Seal
Iran strike israel markets resolved off toi citing a gov source only
Iran strike israel markets resolved off toi citing a gov source only
Yes wins ig
Yes wins ig
I dont think so there will be a time were they respect the rules the rules were respected here
I dont think so there will be a time were they respect the rules the rules were respected here
Basically close and pay
Basically close and pay
Guess who posted the reuters article mentioned in the clarification
Guess who posted the reuters article mentioned in the clarification
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251>
<:Bidensmile:1040247925420339251>
It wasn’t you
It wasn’t you
Check to see if anyone else did
Check to see if anyone else did
The Reuters article was posted by the editor at Reuters
The Reuters article was posted by the editor at Reuters
You’re lucky the new markets team are a bunch of illiterate retards because that source was terrible and didn’t have any mentions of a strike.
You’re lucky the new markets team are a bunch of illiterate retards because that source was terrible and didn’t have any mentions of a strike.
Crine
Crine
But congrats ig
But congrats ig
Shi ppl say when they dont get their 20x flip
Shi ppl say when they dont get their 20x flip
Wait, Arman won!?!?
Wait, Arman won!?!?
You the grinch
You the grinch
alright. how about 13th and 14th
alright. how about 13th and 14th
did strike happen too?
did strike happen too?
Mf 14th just started
Mf 14th just started
He sold most before it resolved
He sold most before it resolved
Ill look into it tomorrow
Ill look into it tomorrow
Imo for the rest of the days the price is more cheap so maybe just buy yes and price will pump (maybe)
Imo for the rest of the days the price is more cheap so maybe just buy yes and price will pump (maybe)
I held good for my port and risk size
I held good for my port and risk size
Ye gotta adapt
Ye gotta adapt
https://klipy.com/gifs/meme-son-im-crine
https://klipy.com/gifs/meme-son-im-crine
thonker has broken even since MSTR 😭 ✌️
thonker has broken even since MSTR 😭 ✌️
How could he missclick that
How could he missclick that
Some giga chad fill me here i want y https://www.betmoar.fun/market/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-july-24-2026-20260713152715081-211
Some giga chad fill me here i want y https://www.betmoar.fun/market/us-announces-end-of-iranian-blockade-by-july-24-2026-20260713152715081-211
yes after 3 days everything is P2
yes after 3 days everything is P2
People said the same for kiss too
People said the same for kiss too
lol
lol
sometimes there are weird clarifications
sometimes there are weird clarifications
kiss was one of them
kiss was one of them
just like the iraq clarification
just like the iraq clarification
ah iraq...
ah iraq...
Its definitely the fact that it os 3 days after and not the fact that iran and us confirmed a hi
Its definitely the fact that it os 3 days after and not the fact that iran and us confirmed a hi
<@886468844460339232> idk why you are laughing i proposed that and every single sharp lost to me
<@886468844460339232> idk why you are laughing i proposed that and every single sharp lost to me
Question for discussion; would the version of Polymarket that clarified Ronaldo crying Yes also have clarified the fart market Yes
Question for discussion; would the version of Polymarket that clarified Ronaldo crying Yes also have clarified the fart market Yes
Both strikes went y while I was asleep damn
Both strikes went y while I was asleep damn
Sadly I had no friends around to stop me and lost on both
Sadly I had no friends around to stop me and lost on both
At least we know it's easier to go p2 now
At least we know it's easier to go p2 now
how are we feeling about 13th and 14th strikes so far btw
how are we feeling about 13th and 14th strikes so far btw
Jul 9 and 12 resolved Y correctly on reporting - both times us officials confirming impacts
Jul 9 and 12 resolved Y correctly on reporting - both times us officials confirming impacts
just saw the july 9 clarification
just saw the july 9 clarification
hot damn
hot damn
i have no clue tbh, i mostly registered the 13th and 14th being something
i have no clue tbh, i mostly registered the 13th and 14th being something
at least they updated the rules, it was too fubar like that.
at least they updated the rules, it was too fubar like that.
If they need to update the rules they should refund the money
If they need to update the rules they should refund the money
Tbh cause playing bets and after whales decide whatever they want at UMA is not fair at all
Tbh cause playing bets and after whales decide whatever they want at UMA is not fair at all
what changed? 50 kg removed?
what changed? 50 kg removed?
I lost big time on 9th but i don't see this happening
I lost big time on 9th but i don't see this happening
yes, at least that what i saw
yes, at least that what i saw
While theoretically possible they definitely did not use ultra long range ultra-light loitering munitions
While theoretically possible they definitely did not use ultra long range ultra-light loitering munitions
Honestly, the rules before have been too loose, the latest ones too tough, but both done by amateurs, it's like a bunch of teens on joints that make Poly:))))
Honestly, the rules before have been too loose, the latest ones too tough, but both done by amateurs, it's like a bunch of teens on joints that make Poly:))))
You've just scammed all N share holders
You've just scammed all N share holders
july 9th attack?
july 9th attack?
iran is a resolution source
iran is a resolution source
May Allah bring His wrath upon strike markets and their rules
May Allah bring His wrath upon strike markets and their rules
I just didn’t commit more for 12 o July even tho it was a clear yes 😞
I just didn’t commit more for 12 o July even tho it was a clear yes 😞
i was surprised waking up into immediately settled july 12th, hopefully some of these opportunities pop up later too
i was surprised waking up into immediately settled july 12th, hopefully some of these opportunities pop up later too
It feels great that you can find reports proving your position, win and not get rugged
It feels great that you can find reports proving your position, win and not get rugged
I bought N made some profit i should had buy Y i was there When 11 cents tho
I bought N made some profit i should had buy Y i was there When 11 cents tho
i had Y at like 20c, generational fumble
i had Y at like 20c, generational fumble
https://discord.com/channels/710897173927297116/817444472009785366/1526403808031150202 this is why july 12 wasn't disputed
https://discord.com/channels/710897173927297116/817444472009785366/1526403808031150202 this is why july 12 wasn't disputed
that was also my first experience with the dumbest disputes imaginable, consensus of reporting was fulfilled but the counter argument was that they showed incorrect data and N side showed napkin math as evidence
that was also my first experience with the dumbest disputes imaginable, consensus of reporting was fulfilled but the counter argument was that they showed incorrect data and N side showed napkin math as evidence
that was also a market that got p4d to oblivion for like 4 months
that was also a market that got p4d to oblivion for like 4 months
Id rather have strong rules... 50 kg was a bit too much but in general, weak rules just make any bs argument valid... with strong rules, the issue is that people will always try to find a technicality to push their position
Id rather have strong rules... 50 kg was a bit too much but in general, weak rules just make any bs argument valid... with strong rules, the issue is that people will always try to find a technicality to push their position
i am scared that it will become like insult markets, either it's clearly Y or you have to wait until the last minute for N <:kekw:939703711628947487>
i am scared that it will become like insult markets, either it's clearly Y or you have to wait until the last minute for N <:kekw:939703711628947487>
But as long as clarifications are common sense, stronger rules is more fair IMHO
But as long as clarifications are common sense, stronger rules is more fair IMHO
spent 1-2 hours following the chat and researching but did not enter the market, but i did not see proof for yes by reuters,wsj which are quoted in the clarification. Study of war or other sources specied missles shot and if i recall correctly, there it was written 7 intercepted and one was unclear. But well, seems clarifications are now just as simple as it it gets, if credible reporting says shots on multiple days is enough for the market team
spent 1-2 hours following the chat and researching but did not enter the market, but i did not see proof for yes by reuters,wsj which are quoted in the clarification. Study of war or other sources specied missles shot and if i recall correctly, there it was written 7 intercepted and one was unclear. But well, seems clarifications are now just as simple as it it gets, if credible reporting says shots on multiple days is enough for the market team
Did you research the 12 July market?
Did you research the 12 July market?
I personally agree that an attack did happen, it's clear as day. The issue is their ruleset which clearly did not satisfy the available evidence. In practice, this raised a much bigger problem. How can you reliably take positions on polymarket when the markets team resolve sometimes based on the title, other times on the ruleset and other times on vibes? The framework of rationale is unreliable, any non deterministic markets are a pure gamble now based on the markets teams vibes.
I personally agree that an attack did happen, it's clear as day. The issue is their ruleset which clearly did not satisfy the available evidence. In practice, this raised a much bigger problem. How can you reliably take positions on polymarket when the markets team resolve sometimes based on the title, other times on the ruleset and other times on vibes? The framework of rationale is unreliable, any non deterministic markets are a pure gamble now based on the markets teams vibes.
Yes, clarifications seem to be more vibe now, which protects recreational bettors and takes away historical edge.
Yes, clarifications seem to be more vibe now, which protects recreational bettors and takes away historical edge.
Always trade on the spirit of the rules not the literal wording
Always trade on the spirit of the rules not the literal wording
There's a reason this is happening btw, as long as you continue to treat your markets like a circus, your users will view you as such.
There's a reason this is happening btw, as long as you continue to treat your markets like a circus, your users will view you as such.
Id be looking to find a new job if I worked at polym tbh
Id be looking to find a new job if I worked at polym tbh
I am sorry but the market literally had Iran as a resolution source which confirmed the strikes
I am sorry but the market literally had Iran as a resolution source which confirmed the strikes
july 9 clarif is a pretty crazy one to complain about
july 9 clarif is a pretty crazy one to complain about
the rules were met albeit the wording of the clarification makes it sound a bit vibey ye
the rules were met albeit the wording of the clarification makes it sound a bit vibey ye
not that its worth rehashing old arguments. iranian govt said they fired missiles, us govt said they hit. its not complex
not that its worth rehashing old arguments. iranian govt said they fired missiles, us govt said they hit. its not complex
long and *reasonably* well specified rules are for the purposes of stopping cucking, not helping it
long and *reasonably* well specified rules are for the purposes of stopping cucking, not helping it
I agree strikes happened, it's about whether the strikes meet the rules of 1) direct hit 2) the list of accepted munitions. Either way, the rules are really bad. This time they resolved based off the title Vs the ruleset. Next time? Who knows. It's the RNG they add through bad rulesets that is slowly killing any deterministic action.
I agree strikes happened, it's about whether the strikes meet the rules of 1) direct hit 2) the list of accepted munitions. Either way, the rules are really bad. This time they resolved based off the title Vs the ruleset. Next time? Who knows. It's the RNG they add through bad rulesets that is slowly killing any deterministic action.
its pointless to argue about July 9, it couldve gone either way and other side would have felt cheated. Poly just clarified Y because of the vibes
its pointless to argue about July 9, it couldve gone either way and other side would have felt cheated. Poly just clarified Y because of the vibes
WSJ quote us officials that confirmed the strikes, the article was clearly about the 9th (look at lolakis UMA post). Bahrain never denied strikes hit. Iran confirmed the strikes.
WSJ quote us officials that confirmed the strikes, the article was clearly about the 9th (look at lolakis UMA post). Bahrain never denied strikes hit. Iran confirmed the strikes.
Some of the apes on here think in order to resolve as a yes, we need a video of the strike happening in real time + the weight of the object before firing + the confirmation of both governments of the strike+ civilian casualties if possible
Some of the apes on here think in order to resolve as a yes, we need a video of the strike happening in real time + the weight of the object before firing + the confirmation of both governments of the strike+ civilian casualties if possible
The 50 kg rule was dumb ye, but we can be 99.9% sure they didnt use shaheed 107 here
The 50 kg rule was dumb ye, but we can be 99.9% sure they didnt use shaheed 107 here
This is the kind of vibe statement their ruleset should not involve.
This is the kind of vibe statement their ruleset should not involve.
both sides had arguments to win July 9th. There were sources claiming all intercepted, other valid sources claiming hit. You chose a side and lost. If you chose to disregard credible evidence and reports as a viable risk is not the market's fault
both sides had arguments to win July 9th. There were sources claiming all intercepted, other valid sources claiming hit. You chose a side and lost. If you chose to disregard credible evidence and reports as a viable risk is not the market's fault
Which source said Bahrain intercepted all though=
Which source said Bahrain intercepted all though=
Bahrain sources said it a couple of times... I believe it wasn't until the WSJ article that a strong case for YES came out
Bahrain sources said it a couple of times... I believe it wasn't until the WSJ article that a strong case for YES came out
Afaik Bahrain said it intercepted a lot, not all
Afaik Bahrain said it intercepted a lot, not all
Kuwait said it intercepted all
Kuwait said it intercepted all
I didn't lose anything notable on July 9th, what was valuable is seeing how the new markets team will clarify markets and it looks like Title> ruleset.
I didn't lose anything notable on July 9th, what was valuable is seeing how the new markets team will clarify markets and it looks like Title> ruleset.
Rules are just a vibe now
Rules are just a vibe now